Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh Predictions
Premier League · Ukraine
Shakhtar Donetsk
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Livyi Bereh
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
Recommended Bets: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh: Match Preview
Shakhtar Donetsk enter this fixture at the top of the Ukrainian Premier League, unbeaten in their last five league outings and boasting the division's tightest defence. Their recent home form is robust, with five wins and just one defeat from eight, while Livyi Bereh sit twelfth, having managed just a single win in ten and drawing over half their matches. The gap in quality is reflected in the table: Shakhtar have 29 points to Livyi Bereh's 9.
The underlying numbers point to a clear stylistic contrast. Shakhtar average 1.83 goals scored and just 0.42 conceded per game, with a 67% clean sheet rate and only 42% of matches going over 2.5 goals. Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have scored just 0.7 per game and conceded 0.9, with only two matches from ten seeing more than two goals. Both sides' recent matches have trended under, and neither has shown a consistent threat from set pieces: corners per game are modest (Shakhtar 4.0, Livyi Bereh 3.2 over the last five).
Given these rates, the model expects Shakhtar to control possession and territory, limiting Livyi Bereh's already limited attacking output. A low-scoring home win is the likeliest outcome, with the hosts' defensive solidity and the visitors' lack of firepower the decisive factors. The most probable path to an upset is Shakhtar's attack stalling, but the distribution of results and head-to-head record both point to a controlled victory for the league leaders.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 0.50
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh that most previews miss.
- 1Shakhtar have kept four clean sheets in their last five league matches and have a 67% clean sheet rate for the season.
- 2Livyi Bereh's matches have finished under 2.5 goals in eight of ten league games (80%).
- 3Both previous head-to-heads ended 1-0 to Shakhtar, with Livyi Bereh failing to score in either.
Who do you think wins: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No
Shakhtar have kept four clean sheets in their last five league matches and have not conceded in either of the last two head-to-heads; Livyi Bereh average just 0.7 goals per game this season and have failed to score in two of their last five.
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Match Result: Shakhtar Donetsk Win
Shakhtar have won five of eight at home and lead the league, while Livyi Bereh have only one win in ten and a negative goal difference; the hosts' defensive record (0.42 goals conceded per game) is the best in the division.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have a strong under trend: Shakhtar's matches are under 2.5 goals 58% of the time, Livyi Bereh's at 80%; both head-to-heads finished 1-0.
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More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh Prediction
Statistical rates point to a low-scoring home win. Shakhtar's defensive metrics (0.42 conceded per game, 67% clean sheet rate) and Livyi Bereh's blunt attack (0.7 scored per game) set a clear expectation for a controlled match. The distribution of results, with both prior meetings ending 1-0 to Shakhtar, reinforces the model's conservative scoreline projection.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both previous head-to-heads finished 1-0 to Shakhtar, with Livyi Bereh failing to score.
Defence
- →Shakhtar average 1.83 goals scored and just 0.42 conceded per league match.
Match Context
- →Livyi Bereh have only scored seven goals in ten matches, with a single win all season.
🚩 Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Shakhtar Donetsk and 4.6 for Livyi Bereh, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Shakhtar Donetsklast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Livyi Berehlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last five league matches, with three clean sheets and only one goal conceded in that span. Livyi Bereh, by contrast, have failed to win any of their last five, drawing three and losing two, and have managed just three goals in that period.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh
Shakhtar Donetsk have won both previous meetings against Livyi Bereh, each by a 1-0 margin. The head-to-head history is short but consistent: Shakhtar have yet to concede to Livyi Bereh, and both matches were low-scoring affairs.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Shakhtar Donetsk wins
0
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh wins
Things to Watch: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Livyi Bereh's high draw rate (6 in 10) introduces some variance if Shakhtar's attack underperforms.
- ⚠️Recent Shakhtar matches show a drop in goals scored (three of last five: 0 goals), possibly due to fixture congestion.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Livyi BerehThe model projects a 2-0 win for Shakhtar Donetsk, anchored by their league-best defensive record and Livyi Bereh's persistent scoring difficulties. The single strongest data point is Shakhtar's 0.42 goals conceded per game and 67% clean sheet rate. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Shakhtar's recent attacking dip continues and Livyi Bereh manage to frustrate them into a low-scoring draw.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh: Common Questions
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Shakhtar Donetsk are strong favourites, with a 68% probability of victory based on their 1.83 goals scored and 0.42 conceded per game, compared to Livyi Bereh's single win and 0.7 goals per match this season.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
Both teams to score is unlikely, with an 82% probability for 'no' according to the model; Shakhtar have kept four clean sheets in their last five, and Livyi Bereh have failed to score in two of their last five.
How many goals will there be in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh?
The model gives a 59% probability to under 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' strong under trends: Shakhtar's matches are under 2.5 goals 58% of the time, Livyi Bereh's 80%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.