SJK vs Mariehamn Predictions
Veikkausliiga · Finland
SJK
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Mariehamn
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.8/10Late Mastokangas Strike Lifts SJK Over 10-Man Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga Thriller
SJK edged past Mariehamn 2-1 at OmaSP Stadion in a tightly contested Veikkausliiga clash that saw both sides create chances but ultimately decided by a late winner. Mariehamn took the lead against the run of play in the 36th minute, but SJK responded with renewed energy after the break, equalizing just past the hour mark before E. Mastokangas sealed the comeback with a dramatic 87th-minute goal. The visitors' hopes were further dented by a second-half red card, which tilted the balance in SJK's favor during the closing stages. Both teams finished with 12 shots and 3 on target, but SJK's dominance in possession (59%) and their ability to capitalize on the numerical advantage proved decisive. Mariehamn showed resilience, especially after going down to ten men, but ultimately could not hold out against SJK's late surge.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
36' — Goal
T. Jakobsen gives Mariehamn a surprise lead, finishing a swift counter.
64' — Goal
SJK equalize after sustained pressure, shifting momentum.
70' — Red Card
Mariehamn reduced to ten men, forced to defend deeper.
87' — Goal
E. Mastokangas scores the winner for SJK, capping a late surge.
SJK
SJK started brightly, controlling possession and dictating the tempo through their midfield. Despite falling behind in the first half, they maintained composure and pressed forward, eventually finding the breakthrough in the 64th minute. Their persistence paid off as they capitalized on Mariehamn's red card to push for the winner, which came courtesy of E. Mastokangas late on. Defensively, they remained organized and limited Mariehamn's threat after the equalizer.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Mariehamn
Mariehamn executed their game plan well in the first half, absorbing pressure and striking first in the 36th minute. However, they struggled to retain possession (41%) and were forced deeper as SJK increased their intensity. The second-half red card proved costly, leaving them vulnerable and unable to withstand SJK’s late pressure. Despite matching SJK in shots and showing defensive resolve, their resistance was ultimately broken.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
SJK lined up in a 3-4-1-2, using width from their midfielders and pushing wingbacks high to stretch Mariehamn’s 4-2-3-1. Their dominance in possession allowed them to control the tempo, especially in the second half. After conceding, SJK increased their pressing intensity and committed more players forward, which paid off after Mariehamn went down to ten men. Mariehamn, meanwhile, focused on compactness and quick transitions, but struggled to maintain their shape following the red card. Set pieces offered both sides opportunities, but SJK’s extra man in midfield proved pivotal as the match wore on.
Turning Point
The red card to Mariehamn in the 70th minute, which enabled SJK to push for and ultimately find the late winner.
Man of the Match
E. Mastokangas
Delivered the decisive goal and was a constant threat in attack, especially in the closing stages.
SJK vs Mariehamn: Match Preview
SJK and Mariehamn meet with both sides seeking to escape the relegation zone, separated by just five points and each with only four wins all season. SJK’s recent form is stagnant, with three draws and two losses in their last five, while Mariehamn have shown a brief resurgence with three wins in their last five but remain bottom of the table due to a dreadful away record. The stakes are high for both, with SJK looking to arrest a six-match winless run and Mariehamn desperate to build on their recent momentum.
Statistically, this is a matchup of two of the league’s lowest-scoring attacks. SJK’s home output stands at 1.45 goals per game, but their defence is leaky, conceding 1.36 per home match. Mariehamn’s away numbers are even more concerning: 0.82 goals scored and 2.55 conceded per away game. Over the last five, SJK have managed just three goals, failing to score in three matches, while Mariehamn have scored in four of five but still concede at a rate of 1.2 per game. The most common H2H scoreline is a SJK win, but the last encounter went the other way.
With neither side able to establish dominance in attack or defence, the model expects a cagey contest likely to be decided by a single goal or individual error. The underlying rates point toward a low-scoring draw, with the 1-1 correct score emerging as the likeliest outcome based on both teams’ season averages and recent form.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
SJK vs Mariehamn Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind SJK vs Mariehamn that most previews miss.
- 1Mariehamn have lost 9 of 11 away matches, conceding 2.55 goals per game on the road.
- 2SJK have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, but have kept 2 clean sheets in that span.
- 3Only one of the last ten H2H meetings between these sides has ended in a draw.
Who do you think wins: SJK vs Mariehamn?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: SJK vs Mariehamn(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average between 1.09 (SJK) and 0.78 (Mariehamn) goals per game, with neither attack nor defence showing a decisive edge; the 1-1 is the modal outcome given the low scoring rates and high draw probability (0.36).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
SJK and Mariehamn combine for just 1.87 goals scored per game on average, and both have seen under 2.5 in more than half of their last five; the model gives the under a 0.54 probability.
Read more ↓
More Veikkausliiga Predictions
The Case For This SJK vs Mariehamn Prediction
This fixture sets up as a low-scoring clash between two of Veikkausliiga’s bottom three, with both SJK and Mariehamn struggling to convert chances and showing little separation in the underlying rates. SJK’s home scoring rate (1.45 per game) is offset by a defence conceding 1.36 at OmaSp Stadion, while Mariehamn’s away record is among the league’s weakest, with just 9 goals scored and 28 conceded in 11 on the road. Both sides are coming off recent draws and have failed to find consistent attacking output. The matchup pits SJK’s modest attack (1.09 goals per game overall) against a Mariehamn defence conceding nearly two per match (1.96), but Mariehamn’s own attack is even less potent, averaging just 0.78 goals per game. Recent form offers little to break the deadlock: SJK have scored only three times in their last five, while Mariehamn have failed to score in just one of their last five but still average 1.8 goals conceded in that stretch. Both teams have kept two clean sheets in their last five, and the BTTS rate is balanced at 2/5 apiece. Given the lack of attacking firepower and a history of tight, low-scoring encounters in this matchup, the model projects a narrow, cautious contest with the draw and under 2.5 goals as the likeliest outcomes. The 1-1 scoreline is the modal result, reflecting the convergence of both teams’ season-long scoring and concession rates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →SJK average 1.09 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game this season.
- →Mariehamn have the league’s worst away defensive record (28 conceded in 11 away).
Match Context
- →Both teams have drawn 2 of their last 5, with low BTTS and under 2.5 goal rates.
🚩 SJK vs Mariehamn Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for SJK and 6 for Mariehamn, for an expected total of 11.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 57%.
How SJK and Mariehamn Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SJK vs Mariehamn Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SJKlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mariehamnlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SJK are winless in their last five, drawing three and losing two, and have managed just three goals in that span. Mariehamn, while bottom of the table, have won three of their last five, including a 2-0 win over SJK, but still average less than a goal per game away from home. Both sides have kept two clean sheets in their last five, but neither has established consistent momentum.
SJK vs Mariehamn — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: SJK vs Mariehamn
SJK have won seven of the last ten meetings, including a 3-0 home win in April, but Mariehamn took the most recent encounter 2-0 on their own ground. Draws are rare in this fixture, with only one in the last ten, and most matches have produced at least two goals. The home side has generally had the upper hand.
SJK vs Mariehamn Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
SJK wins
0
Draws
3
Mariehamn wins
Things to Watch: SJK vs Mariehamn
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form sample is small and both teams have shown volatility in attack.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are not available at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
SJK 1–1 MariehamnThe model projects a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams’ season-long scoring rates (SJK 1.09, Mariehamn 0.78) and the lack of attacking consistency on either side. The strongest data point is Mariehamn’s away defensive record (2.55 conceded per game), but SJK’s own attacking struggles reduce the likelihood of a home win. The main risk is Mariehamn’s recent uptick in scoring, which could see them edge a tight contest if SJK’s defence falters.
SJK vs Mariehamn: Common Questions
Who will win SJK vs Mariehamn?
The model gives SJK a 39% chance to win, the draw at 36%, and Mariehamn at 25%. Both teams have struggled for wins, and the most likely outcome is a draw given their low scoring rates and recent form.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54% probability, reflecting both teams’ season averages (SJK 1.09, Mariehamn 0.78 goals scored per game) and a recent trend toward low-scoring matches.
Is both teams to score (BTTS) likely in SJK vs Mariehamn?
The model rates BTTS (yes) at 49% and no at 51%, indicating a near-even split; both teams have seen BTTS in only 2 of their last 5 matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SJK vs Mariehamn: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.