Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu Prediction
Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu: Model Favouring Vanuatu in Pacific Friendly
International Friendly · World
Solomon Islands
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Vanuatu
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu Prediction
The analytics model gives Vanuatu a clear edge over Solomon Islands in this Oceania friendly, with an Elo rating advantage of 60 points (1114 vs 1054) and a predicted 2-1 away win. While both teams lack robust attacking and defensive data, recent momentum and form tilt the scales further: Vanuatu's last five matches have yielded 11 form points and an average of 1.8 goals scored per game, compared to Solomon Islands' solitary point and 1.2 goals per game. The model's final expected goals (λ) line stands at 1.84 for Vanuatu and 1.10 for the hosts, reflecting both the Elo baseline and recent form adjustments. Historically, these sides have played close contests, but the current numbers suggest Vanuatu's recent run of results and slightly superior squad quality are decisive. With both teams showing a high likelihood of scoring (BTTS 'yes' at 56%), the match projects as competitive but with the visitors more likely to capitalise.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Recent form momentum boosts Vanuatu's attack to 1.135 and suppresses their defensive leak to 0.919.
- →Solomon Islands have lost four of their last five matches, conceding an average of 3.6 goals per game.
Match Context
- →Vanuatu hold a 60-point Elo rating advantage (1114 vs 1054).
- →The model's final expected goals: 1.10 (Solomon Islands), 1.84 (Vanuatu).
- →BTTS 'yes' probability is high at 56%.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.18 · 1.42
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.10 · 1.84
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Solomon Islands's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18; Vanuatu attacking form lifts their goals ×1.14.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Solomon Islands goals, columns = Vanuatu goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
9.8%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu that most previews miss.
- 1Vanuatu have averaged 1.8 goals scored and just 1 conceded per game in their last five matches.
- 2Four of the last five meetings between these sides have seen both teams score.
- 3The model gives a 77.4% probability to Vanuatu avoiding defeat (double chance X2).
How the Model Reached This
The model starts by evaluating the Elo ratings, which serve as a foundational measure of overall team strength. Here, Vanuatu's Elo of 1114 (ranked 171st) outpaces Solomon Islands' 1054 (179th), giving the away side a baseline expected score of 0.585 versus 0.415 for the hosts. Since neither team has detailed xG or player-level data, the attack and defence factors default to neutral (1.0), but the model still incorporates recent form momentum: Vanuatu's attack is boosted by a 1.135 multiplier, while their defensive leak is suppressed to 0.919, reflecting their strong run of results (11 form points from 5 games). Conversely, Solomon Islands' attack is slightly dampened (0.973), and their defensive leak is elevated (1.18), mirroring their recent struggles. Blending the Elo and xG lines, and applying these momentum adjustments, the model arrives at final expected goals of 1.10 for Solomon Islands and 1.84 for Vanuatu. These scoring rates are then run through a Poisson model to simulate the range of possible scorelines, producing a 54.7% win probability for Vanuatu, 22.5% for Solomon Islands, and 22.8% for the draw. The most likely correct scores are 1-1 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.8%), and 0-1 (9.8%).
More Friendlies Predictions
Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Solomon Islandslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vanuatulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Recent form clearly favours Vanuatu, who have taken 11 points from their last five matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding just 1. In contrast, Solomon Islands have managed only a single point in the same span, conceding an average of 3.6 goals per game and losing four times. Both teams have scored in four of their last five outings, but the hosts' defensive frailties are pronounced.
Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu
The head-to-head record is competitive, with Solomon Islands winning four of the last eight meetings and Vanuatu three. Recent encounters have swung slightly towards Vanuatu, who won the last two, including a 1-0 away win in June 2024. Draws are rare, with just one in the last eight matches, but the margins are usually fine.
Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
4
Solomon Islands wins
1
Draws
3
Vanuatu wins
Things to Watch: Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can produce unpredictable line-ups and motivation levels.
- ⚠️Both teams lack detailed xG or player-level data, increasing model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Solomon Islands 1–2 VanuatuThe model calls this 2-1 to Vanuatu, anchored by their 54.7% win probability and a final expected goals advantage of 1.84 to 1.10. The biggest risk to this forecast is the historical tendency for these fixtures to be tightly contested, with Solomon Islands having won four of the last eight meetings and the most likely single scoreline being a 1-1 draw (10.7%).
Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu: Common Questions
Who will win Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu?
The model gives Vanuatu a 54.7% probability of victory, compared to 22.5% for Solomon Islands and 22.8% for the draw. Vanuatu are favoured based on Elo ratings and recent form.
Will both teams score in Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu?
Yes, the model estimates a 56% probability that both teams will score, reflecting attacking vulnerabilities on both sides and recent high-scoring meetings.
What is at stake in this Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu friendly?
While this is a friendly match, both teams are looking to build momentum ahead of competitive fixtures. Vanuatu's recent form (11 points from 5 games) suggests they're using this as a platform to consolidate their progress.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Solomon Islands vs Vanuatu: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 18 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.