Southend vs Yeovil Town Predictions
National League · England
Southend
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Yeovil Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Southend vs Yeovil Town: Match Preview
Southend come into this fixture third in the table, having won three of their opening four league matches but suffering a 1-3 home defeat last time out. Their home form is less convincing than their away results, with just two goals scored and three conceded at Roots Hall. Yeovil, meanwhile, are unbeaten and sit sixth, having taken four points from two away games and showing late resilience with both goals in their last away win coming after the 85th minute.
Statistically, both sides are above league average for goals scored (Southend 2.0, Yeovil 1.75 per game), but Yeovil have been more secure defensively (0.75 conceded per game vs Southend's 1.25). Southend's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75% of cases, but their home games have been tighter. Both teams have scored in three of Southend's last four and four of Yeovil's last five, but clean sheets are rare (one each in the last five league games). First-half goals have been less frequent for Yeovil (3 in five matches) than Southend (6), suggesting a cagey opening.
The model expects a balanced contest, with a slight statistical lean towards a draw and a moderate goal total. Both teams are likely to score, but the underlying rates and recent H2H history point to a 1-1 or 2-1 either way as the most probable outcomes. The distribution of goals and the lack of a clear defensive edge for either side make a split result the likeliest outcome.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Southend vs Yeovil Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Southend vs Yeovil Town that most previews miss.
- 1Southend's home matches average just 1.5 total goals per game this season, compared to 4.0 in their away fixtures.
- 2Yeovil have scored in every league match so far but kept only one clean sheet, with both teams scoring in four of their last five games.
- 3Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have produced goals for both sides, and only one ended in a draw.
Who do you think wins: Southend vs Yeovil Town?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Southend vs Yeovil Town(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides have averaged over a goal per game but also concede at a similar rate, and four of their last eight league H2H meetings have ended with both teams scoring. The model's highest single scoreline probability is 19% for 1-1, reflecting the statistical deadlock.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Southend's home matches are averaging 1.5 goals per game so far, while Yeovil's away games sit at 2.5. The model sees a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals, slightly above the historical over rate for both sides.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 3 of Southend's last 4 league matches and 4 of Yeovil's last 5, with neither side keeping more than one clean sheet in that period.
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More National League Predictions
The Case For This Southend vs Yeovil Town Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a tight contest between two sides with similar scoring and concession rates, both sitting in the National League's top six after four rounds. Southend's home attack has been subdued compared to their away form, while Yeovil have proved resilient on the road. The most likely scenario is a low-scoring draw, with both teams likely to find the net but neither able to dominate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head is balanced: Southend have won 5 of the last 10, Yeovil 4, and 1 draw, with 7 of those 10 seeing both teams score.
Defence
- →Southend average 2.0 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game this season, but just 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded at home.
- →Yeovil are unbeaten in the league, with 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match, and a 1-1-0 away record (3 for, 2 against).
How Southend and Yeovil Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Southend vs Yeovil Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Southendlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Yeovil Townlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Southend have started strongly with three wins from four, though their only defeat came at home in their most recent outing. Their attack has been more productive away, averaging 3.0 goals per game on the road versus 1.0 at home. Yeovil are unbeaten, with two wins and two draws, and have shown late-game resilience, scoring decisive goals in the final minutes of their last away win.
Southend vs Yeovil Town — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Southend vs Yeovil Town
The last ten meetings are closely split, with Southend winning five and Yeovil four, and only one draw. Both teams have scored in seven of those matches, and the away side has claimed victory four times, underlining the lack of a dominant trend.
Southend vs Yeovil Town Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Southend wins
1
Draws
4
Yeovil Town wins
Things to Watch: Southend vs Yeovil Town
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Early season data means small sample sizes for home/away splits.
- ⚠️No injury or lineup information at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Southend 1–1 Yeovil TownThe model calls this as a 1-1 draw, with the strongest statistical anchor being both teams' similar rates of scoring and conceding (Southend 2.0/1.25, Yeovil 1.75/0.75 per game) and the high BTTS frequency in recent H2H meetings. The main risk is Southend's home attack underperforming again, or Yeovil's away defence proving more robust than the early numbers suggest.
Southend vs Yeovil Town: Common Questions
Who will win Southend vs Yeovil Town?
The model rates this as an extremely even contest, with probabilities of 33% for a Southend win, 32% for Yeovil, and 35% for a draw. Both sides are in the top six and have similar scoring rates, so a draw is marginally the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Southend vs Yeovil Town?
There is a 58% probability that both teams will score. Southend have seen BTTS in three of their last four league games, and Yeovil in four of their last five, with neither side keeping more than one clean sheet in that span.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Southend vs Yeovil Town?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly more probable at 52%, despite Southend's overall high over 2.5 rate (75%). This is due to both teams' tighter home and away defensive records and a pattern of lower-scoring contests at Roots Hall.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Southend vs Yeovil Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.