Sport Recife vs Londrina Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Sport Recife
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
Londrina
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.5/10Sport Recife Edge Londrina in Hard-Fought Serie B Clash at Ilha do Retiro
Sport Recife secured a crucial 2-1 victory over Londrina in a tightly contested Serie B encounter at Ilha do Retiro. The hosts struck early through Perotti in the 11th minute, only for Londrina to respond with a well-taken equalizer from William Pottker on the half-hour mark. However, Sport Recife regained control just before halftime with a decisive goal from Clayson in the 43rd minute. Despite Londrina's efforts—registering 15 shots to Sport's 12 and slightly trailing in possession (49% to 51%)—the visitors couldn't find a way past Thiago Couto after the break. Both sides showed grit and discipline, though each picked up a yellow card in a match that remained on a knife-edge until the final whistle.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
11' — Goal
Perotti puts Sport Recife ahead with a composed finish.
30' — Goal
William Pottker equalizes for Londrina after a swift attacking move.
43' — Goal
Clayson restores Sport Recife's lead with a well-taken strike.
52' — Yellow Card
Sport Recife's Zé Gabriel cautioned for a tactical foul.
65' — Yellow Card
Londrina's Heron booked after a late challenge.
Sport Recife
Sport Recife started brightly, asserting themselves with an early goal and maintaining composure even after Londrina's equalizer. The midfield duo of Zé Gabriel and Willian Oliveira provided stability, while Clayson and Perotti offered attacking impetus. Despite conceding more shots, Sport Recife's defense held firm in the second half, limiting Londrina to just three shots on target overall.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Londrina
Londrina matched Sport Recife for much of the contest, creating more shooting opportunities and showing intent in attack. William Pottker led the line well, grabbing the equalizer and keeping the home defense alert. However, their inability to convert chances and a lack of cutting edge in the final third ultimately cost them, as they failed to capitalize on their momentum after drawing level.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sport Recife lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on a double pivot for defensive stability and quick transitions through the attacking midfield trio. Their narrow approach limited their set-piece opportunities but allowed them to control central areas. Londrina's 4-1-4-1 provided width and numbers in midfield, enabling them to press effectively and generate more shots, though they struggled to convert possession into clear-cut chances. Both managers made tactical tweaks via substitutions, but the formations largely held, with Sport Recife sitting deeper to protect their lead in the second half while Londrina pushed numbers forward.
Turning Point
Clayson's goal in the 43rd minute, which shifted momentum back to Sport Recife just before halftime and forced Londrina to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Clayson
Provided the match-winning goal and was a constant threat in the final third, making the difference in a closely fought contest.
Sport Recife vs Londrina: Match Preview
Sport Recife enter the fixture on a run of four consecutive draws, sitting 10th with 29 points and just one home defeat all season. Their campaign has been defined by resilience rather than ruthlessness, with 11 draws in 20 matches and a home record of W3 D7 L1. Londrina, 17th and fighting relegation, have lost 10 times already and arrive on the back of two defeats, including a heavy 1-4 home loss to Novorizontino.
Statistically, this is a clash between a side that rarely loses at home and one that struggles on the road. Sport Recife average 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per home game, while Londrina’s away record is porous: 17 conceded in 10, a clean sheet rate of just 20%, and a 65% over 2.5 goals rate. Both teams' recent matches have seen plenty of action—Sport’s last 5 average 3.0 total goals and Londrina’s 3.0 as well. Set pieces may play a role, with both sides averaging over 5 corners per game in their last five.
The model expects a match with above-average scoring chances, driven by Londrina’s defensive frailty and Sport Recife’s consistent home output. While Sport’s draw tendency is a risk, their historical dominance in this fixture and Londrina’s away struggles tilt the balance. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, with both teams likely to score but the hosts exploiting defensive lapses.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sport Recife vs Londrina Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sport Recife vs Londrina that most previews miss.
- 1Londrina’s away matches have seen 2.9 goals per game, the highest away average in Serie B.
- 2Sport Recife have scored in 8 of 11 home games but kept just 4 clean sheets at home (36%).
- 3Five of the last seven H2H meetings have produced over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Sport Recife vs Londrina?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sport Recife vs Londrina(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides average above 1.2 goals scored per game, Londrina’s over 2.5 rate is 65% and Sport Recife’s recent home matches have featured 3+ goals in 3 of the last 5.
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Match Result: Sport Recife Win
Sport Recife have lost just once at home all season (W3 D7 L1), while Londrina have lost 6 of 10 away and have a negative away goal difference.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 4 of Sport Recife’s last 5 and Londrina have scored in 8 of their last 10 away games, while both teams’ defensive records are average.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Sport Recife vs Londrina Prediction
This fixture sets up as a mid-table side with a strong home record against a relegation-threatened team with a leaky defence but some attacking punch. The numbers point to a match with above-average goal expectancy, shaped by Londrina’s high over 2.5 rate and Sport Recife’s recent defensive lapses. The likeliest scenario is a narrow home win in a game where both teams find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Sport Recife are unbeaten in 10 of 11 home matches (W3 D7 L1) this season.
Defence
- →Londrina have conceded 17 goals in 10 away games and have the league's highest over 2.5 goals rate at 65%.
Match Context
- →Sport Recife have drawn 4 straight matches, but have scored in 4 of their last 5.
🚩 Sport Recife vs Londrina Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Sport Recife and 5.5 for Londrina, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How Sport Recife and Londrina Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sport Recife vs Londrina Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sport Recifelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Londrinalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sport Recife are in the midst of a four-match drawing streak, with their last five yielding four draws and a single defeat, but they remain tough to beat at home. Londrina have lost back-to-back matches and have just one win in their last five, conceding nine goals in that span. Both teams have struggled for consistency, but Sport’s home resilience contrasts sharply with Londrina’s away vulnerability.
Sport Recife vs Londrina — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Sport Recife vs Londrina
Sport Recife have won six of the last seven meetings with Londrina, including all three previous home encounters. High-scoring games are common in this fixture, with five of the last seven producing over 2.5 goals. Londrina have never kept a clean sheet away to Sport Recife.
Sport Recife vs Londrina Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
7
Sport Recife wins
0
Draws
1
Londrina wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sport Recife vs Londrina
With no bookmaker odds available, precise value cannot be calculated, but model probabilities suggest the best angles would be on over 2.5 goals and a home win, given Londrina’s high concession rate and Sport Recife’s home solidity. The draw probability is also elevated due to Sport’s 11 draws in 20 matches, so any odds above 3.20 for the draw would merit consideration.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sport Recife vs Londrina
- ⚠️Sport Recife’s high draw rate (11 draws in 20) could limit win probability.
- ⚠️Londrina’s attack is volatile, scoring 5 in one match but blanking in others.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for precise value calculation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sport Recife 2–1 LondrinaSport Recife are projected to edge this 2-1, based on their strong home record (just one loss) and Londrina’s poor away defence (1.7 goals conceded per away game). The main risk is Sport’s tendency to draw matches—if they fail to convert chances or sit back after scoring, another stalemate is plausible.
Sport Recife vs Londrina: Common Questions
Who will win Sport Recife vs Londrina?
Sport Recife are favoured with a 47% win probability, while Londrina’s chances are just 20% and the draw is 33%. Sport’s strong home record and Londrina’s away frailty drive this edge.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Londrina?
The model gives a 57% probability to both teams scoring, with both sides averaging over a goal per game and recent matches for both featuring BTTS in 3 or more of the last 5.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Sport Recife vs Londrina?
There’s a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by Londrina’s 65% over 2.5 rate and both teams’ last 5 matches averaging 3.0 goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sport Recife vs Londrina: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.