St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
St. Truiden
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Zulte Waregem
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.8/10St. Truiden Cruise Past 10-Man Zulte Waregem with 4-1 Home Win
St. Truiden delivered a commanding performance at Stayen, dispatching Zulte Waregem 4-1 in a match defined by early dominance and a crucial red card for the visitors. The hosts raced into a two-goal lead within 12 minutes, asserting control with 68% possession and a relentless attacking display that saw them register 16 shots, 9 of which were on target. Zulte Waregem briefly threatened a comeback with a goal in the 14th minute, but their hopes were dashed by a second-half sending off, after which St. Truiden added two more goals to seal the result. Zulte Waregem, operating in a 4-4-2, struggled to contain St. Truiden’s midfield and were forced into damage control after being reduced to 10 men. Despite a spirited response after falling behind, their attacking threat faded as St. Truiden’s control grew, and defensive lapses proved costly. The result keeps St. Truiden’s momentum alive in the Jupiler Pro League, while Zulte Waregem are left to rue disciplinary issues and missed opportunities.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
4 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
St. Truiden open the scoring, seizing early momentum.
12' — Goal
Hosts double their lead, putting Zulte Waregem under severe pressure.
14' — Goal
Tobias Hedl pulls one back for Zulte Waregem, briefly reviving their hopes.
64' — Goal
St. Truiden restore their two-goal cushion, capitalizing on their dominance.
66' — Goal
St. Truiden add a fourth, putting the result beyond doubt.
Second Half' — Red Card
Zulte Waregem reduced to 10 men, ending any realistic chance of a comeback.
St. Truiden
St. Truiden were dominant from the outset, dictating play with 68% possession and a fluid 4-2-3-1 formation that overwhelmed Zulte Waregem’s midfield. Their attacking quartet was sharp, producing 16 shots and consistently testing Brent Gabriel in the Zulte goal. The hosts’ pressing and ball retention limited Zulte’s opportunities, while quick transitions led to early goals that set the tone for the match. Defensively, St. Truiden were largely untroubled apart from a brief spell after conceding, and they capitalized ruthlessly on the man advantage in the second half. The midfield pairing of Sissako and Ishiwatari provided a solid platform, while the attacking trio behind Baždar were instrumental in creating chances.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem endured a tough evening, falling behind early and struggling to gain a foothold with just 32% possession. Their 4-4-2 setup was overrun in midfield, and defensive frailties were exposed by St. Truiden’s incisive play. The visitors showed some fight with a quick response goal in the 14th minute, but their momentum was halted by a costly red card in the second half. The team’s discipline issues—three yellow cards and a red—undermined any hopes of a comeback, and with only two shots on target from 11 attempts, their attacking output was limited. Zulte Waregem will need to address both their defensive organization and discipline going forward.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
St. Truiden’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to control the midfield and dictate the tempo, with the double pivot of Sissako and Ishiwatari shielding the back four and facilitating quick transitions. The attacking trio behind Baždar exploited spaces between the lines, frequently overloading Zulte Waregem’s midfield and creating numerous chances. Zulte Waregem’s 4-4-2 struggled to cope with St. Truiden’s numerical superiority in midfield, often leaving their back line exposed. The visitors attempted to press higher after their goal, but the red card forced them into a deeper, more reactive shape, ceding further control to the hosts. Set pieces offered Zulte some respite, but their inability to retain possession or disrupt St. Truiden’s rhythm proved decisive.
Turning Point
The red card for Zulte Waregem in the second half, which ended their hopes of mounting a comeback and allowed St. Truiden to add two quick goals.
Man of the Match
Ilias Sebaoui
Instrumental in midfield, orchestrating attacks and contributing to multiple goals with incisive passing and movement.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem: Match Preview
St. Truiden return to Daio Wasabi Stayen after a mixed run, sitting 14th with just two league wins but showing attacking promise with 17 goals in nine matches. Zulte Waregem, 10th in the table, have lost their last two league games and have managed only four goals in five away trips, highlighting their offensive limitations on the road. Both sides are seeking to arrest recent slides, with St. Truiden’s home form (1W, 1D, 2L) marginally steadier than Zulte Waregem’s away record (1W, 2D, 2L).
The statistical matchup points to a game where St. Truiden’s attack should test a Zulte Waregem defence conceding 1.6 goals per away match. St. Truiden’s last five league outings have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with a notable 12.6 shots per game, while Zulte Waregem have struggled for control, averaging just 25.2% possession and 2.4 shots on target in the same span. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in at least 60% of their league fixtures, and neither side boasts a reliable clean sheet rate.
Given these underlying rates, the model expects St. Truiden’s greater home attacking volume to make the difference, especially as Zulte Waregem’s away output remains muted. The likeliest scenario is a narrow home win in a match that trends over 2.5 goals, with set-piece opportunities and defensive lapses on both sides contributing to the scoreline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem that most previews miss.
- 1St. Truiden have scored in every one of their last five matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game in that stretch.
- 2Zulte Waregem’s away matches have produced an average of 2.4 total goals, but they have failed to score in two of their last five overall.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by the home side, with only one ending level.
Who do you think wins: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
The most probable scoreline by the model, supported by St. Truiden’s higher home scoring rate (1.25 per home game) against Zulte Waregem’s away defensive record (1.6 conceded per away game), and the frequent 2-1/2-0 type results in H2H meetings.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in at least 60% of their league matches this season, with St. Truiden at 66.67% and Zulte Waregem at 60%, and recent form showing a combined 19 goals in their last five respective league games.
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Match Result: St. Truiden Win
St. Truiden have won seven of the last ten H2H meetings and show a stronger attacking output at home compared to Zulte Waregem’s away scoring rate (0.8 per away game).
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More Jupiler Pro League Predictions
The Case For This St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a moderate-scoring contest with the home side holding a clear edge in attacking output, particularly when factoring in Zulte Waregem’s away struggles. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but St. Truiden’s recent shot volume and consistent scoring tilt the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →St. Truiden average 1.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per league game, with a 66.67% over 2.5 goals rate.
Match Context
- →Zulte Waregem have failed to score in two of their last five, with just 0.8 goals per away league match.
- →St. Truiden have won seven of the last ten head-to-heads, including the last two at home.
🚩 St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for St. Truiden and 3.8 for Zulte Waregem, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 58% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
St. Truidenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Zulte Waregemlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
St. Truiden come in with three wins from their last five matches in all competitions, scoring at least once in each and averaging 2.4 goals per game. Zulte Waregem, by contrast, have lost four of their last five league matches, scoring just four times and conceding eleven, with their only recent win coming in the cup.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
St. Truiden have dominated this matchup, winning seven of the last ten meetings and both of the last two at home. The fixture has a history of goals, with only one of the last ten finishing under two goals and several recent encounters ending 2-1 or 3-2.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
St. Truiden wins
0
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem wins
Things to Watch: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is volatile, with St. Truiden’s last five including three wins and two losses, and Zulte Waregem on a two-game losing streak.
- ⚠️Both teams have low season clean sheet percentages (St. Truiden 11.11%, Zulte Waregem 30%), increasing goal variance risk.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
St. Truiden 2–1 Zulte WaregemThe model predicts a 2-1 win for St. Truiden, anchored by their superior home attacking rate (1.25 goals per home game) and Zulte Waregem’s struggles to create chances away from home. The biggest risk is St. Truiden’s own defensive frailty, as they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last three league games, leaving the door open for a draw if Zulte Waregem can capitalise on limited opportunities.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem: Common Questions
Who will win St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
St. Truiden are favoured with a 45% probability of victory, compared to 23% for Zulte Waregem and 32% for the draw. This is supported by St. Truiden’s stronger home attack and a dominant H2H record.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
The model gives a 58% probability to over 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams’ high season-long over 2.5 rates (St. Truiden 66.67%, Zulte Waregem 60%) and recent defensive records.
Are both teams likely to score in St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, as St. Truiden have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three league games and Zulte Waregem have only one clean sheet in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.