Start vs Fredrikstad Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Start
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Fredrikstad
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10Fredrikstad Edge Start in Tight Eliteserien Encounter at Sør Arena
Fredrikstad clinched a narrow 1-0 away victory over Start at Sparebanken Sør Arena, thanks to a decisive first-half strike in the 29th minute. In a match that saw both teams match each other shot for shot—each registering 13 attempts—Fredrikstad’s clinical edge in front of goal proved the difference. Despite Start’s efforts to claw back, they struggled to convert their chances, managing only two shots on target. The visitors, set up in a disciplined 5-4-1 formation, soaked up pressure and capitalized on their opportunities, while Start’s 3-5-2 system offered width and possession but lacked the cutting edge required in the final third. With neither side picking up any cards and the match played at a competitive but fair tempo, Fredrikstad’s defensive resolve and timely goal saw them leave Kristiansand with all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
29' — Goal
Henrik Langaas Skogvold scores to give Fredrikstad the lead, finishing off a swift attacking move.
45' — Halftime
Fredrikstad go into the break with a 1-0 advantage after a balanced but cagey first half.
70' — Sustained Pressure
Start push forward, winning a series of corners, but Fredrikstad’s defense holds firm.
90' — Full Time
Fredrikstad claim all three points with a hard-fought 1-0 away win.
Start
Start matched Fredrikstad in both possession (49%) and total shots (13), but their inability to threaten the opposition goalkeeper cost them dearly. Despite a five-man midfield that controlled large spells of the game and generated six corners, Start could only muster two shots on target. Their attacking duo of Jesper Cornelius and James Ampofo found little space against Fredrikstad’s five-man backline. The hosts pressed for an equalizer in the second half, but a lack of creativity and composure in the box undermined their efforts. Defensively, they were generally solid, but a lapse in concentration before the half-hour mark proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad executed their game plan with discipline, utilizing a 5-4-1 formation to frustrate Start and strike on the counter. They edged possession (51%) and were marginally more effective in front of goal, registering three shots on target. The decisive moment came in the 29th minute, when Fredrikstad capitalized on a rare defensive lapse from the hosts. The back five remained resolute throughout, limiting Start’s attacking duo and clearing danger from set pieces. Fredrikstad’s ability to manage the game after taking the lead was impressive, as they kept their composure and saw out the result without resorting to cynical fouling or time-wasting.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Start lined up in a 3-5-2, aiming to dominate midfield and use wingbacks to stretch Fredrikstad’s five-man defensive line. While this gave them territorial advantage and a steady supply of set pieces, they struggled to break down the compact visiting defense. The lack of width in the final third and limited support for the strikers blunted their attack. Fredrikstad’s 5-4-1 was designed for solidity, with the wingbacks dropping deep to form a back five. After taking the lead, they sat deeper and looked to hit on the break, relying on Skogvold’s mobility up front. Substitutions (not detailed in the data) likely reinforced their defensive shape, as they absorbed pressure and protected their narrow lead.
Turning Point
Skogvold’s 29th-minute goal gave Fredrikstad the platform to execute their defensive game plan and ultimately secure the victory.
Man of the Match
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
His well-taken goal was the difference in a tightly contested match, and he led the line with energy and purpose.
Start vs Fredrikstad: Match Preview
Start arrive with renewed optimism after grinding out a 2-1 win away at Kristiansund, breaking a run of four straight defeats and injecting some much-needed belief into a side rooted to the bottom. Yet, their recent home form is bleak—just one win in six—and they remain the league's leakiest defence, conceding 34 in 15. Fredrikstad, sitting four points above the drop, are in freefall themselves, having lost four consecutive league games and failed to score in any of them. Both sides are desperate for a result to arrest their slides, but neither carries much attacking conviction.
The underlying numbers point to a dour contest. Start have averaged just 0.8 goals and 12.6 shots per game across their last five, while Fredrikstad's attacking impotence is even starker: 0.2 goals, 4.6 shots, and only one BTTS outcome in that span. Both teams' recent matches have been low on set-piece threat and high on defensive errors, but Fredrikstad's away record (6 losses in 8, 6 goals scored) is especially concerning. With neither side able to sustain pressure or carve out clear chances, the midfield battle is likely to be scrappy and congested.
Given the lack of momentum and confidence on both benches, the model expects a cautious start, with little between the sides and few genuine scoring opportunities. Start's slight bounce from their last outing is tempered by their defensive frailties, while Fredrikstad's travel sickness and toothless attack suggest a draw is most likely. A 1-1 scoreline, or potentially even fewer goals, looks the best fit for the data.
How Start and Fredrikstad Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Start vs Fredrikstad Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Startlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fredrikstadlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Start finally halted a four-game losing streak with a 2-1 win at Kristiansund, but their defensive issues persist, conceding 12 in their last five. Fredrikstad's form is even more concerning, with four consecutive league losses and only one goal scored in their last five matches. Both teams are trending downward, but Start at least arrive with a glimmer of momentum.
Start vs Fredrikstad — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Start vs Fredrikstad Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Start vs Fredrikstad that most previews miss.
- 1Fredrikstad have failed to score in four straight league games, averaging just 1 shot on target per match in that stretch.
- 2Start have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding 12 goals in that span.
- 3The last three meetings between these sides in Kristiansand have all finished either 1-1 or 2-2.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Start vs Fredrikstad?
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The Case For This Start vs Fredrikstad Prediction
Start's rare away win last time out at Kristiansund snapped a four-game losing streak and offered a glimmer of hope at the bottom of the table, but their underlying numbers remain frail: 0.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game across the last five. Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have slumped to four straight league defeats, failing to score in any of those and averaging just 4.6 shots per match—a dramatic collapse in attacking output. The tactical battle is likely to be attritional. Start's home record is poor (1 win in 6, 6 goals scored), but Fredrikstad's away form is even worse (1 win, 1 draw, 6 losses, 6 goals scored in 8). Both sides have lacked spark in the final third, with Fredrikstad's last five league matches producing only one goal and just a single BTTS outcome. Set-piece threat is minimal, as neither side averages more than 3 corners per game recently, and discipline is middling with both teams around 1.5 cards per match. Given the lack of momentum on either side, the model expects a cagey affair with few clear chances. Start's slight uptick from the Kristiansund win is offset by their defensive frailty, while Fredrikstad's blunt attack on the road suggests they will struggle to capitalise. A low-scoring draw is the likeliest result, with neither side showing the form or confidence to force a breakthrough.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Fredrikstad have scored just once in their last five matches and failed to score in four of those.
Attack
- →Both sides are among the lowest-scoring teams in the division over the last month, each averaging under 1 goal per game.
Defence
- →Start have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five, but showed some resilience in their latest win.
Where the Model Sees Value: Start vs Fredrikstad(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both sides are in the midst of poor runs—Start have lost four of their last five, while Fredrikstad are winless in five and have scored just once in that stretch. The lack of attacking conviction on both sides and the tendency for low-scoring, tight matches, especially in Fredrikstad's recent away games, make a stalemate the most likely outcome.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Fredrikstad have scored just 0.2 goals per game in their last five and failed to score in four of those, while Start have only managed 0.8 per game over the same period. Both teams have struggled to create high-quality chances, and the last H2H finished 2-1 but with only 14 total shots from Start in that match.
Read more ↓
More Eliteserien Predictions
🚩 Start vs Fredrikstad Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Start and 3.7 for Fredrikstad, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
What History Says: Start vs Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad have won five of the last nine meetings, including a 2-1 win in May, but draws have been common, especially in Kristiansand—three of the last five encounters have finished level or with just a single goal difference. The fixture tends to produce goals for both sides, but recent attacking struggles may break that pattern.
Start vs Fredrikstad Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Start wins
3
Draws
6
Fredrikstad wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Start vs Fredrikstad
With no bookmaker odds available, it is not possible to identify value edges for this fixture. However, the model's probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals would be the most likely areas for value if odds were available, given the recent attacking struggles on both sides.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Start vs Fredrikstad
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form is poor for both teams, increasing draw and low-goal probability but also volatility.
- ⚠️Lack of lineup and injury news near kickoff introduces some uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Start 1–1 FredrikstadThe likeliest outcome is a low-scoring draw, with 1-1 the model's top pick. Fredrikstad's collapse in attacking output—just one goal in five games—drives this view, as does Start's inability to keep teams out. The main risk is that Start's recent win sparks a stronger home showing, or Fredrikstad finally break their drought against a porous defence.
Start vs Fredrikstad: Common Questions
Who will win Start vs Fredrikstad?
The probabilities are very close: Start 36%, Draw 36%, Fredrikstad 28%. With both sides in poor form and lacking attacking threat, a draw is the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Start vs Fredrikstad?
The model gives just a 49% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting Fredrikstad's run of four straight games without a goal and Start's patchy attack.
Can Fredrikstad end their losing streak?
Fredrikstad have lost four straight league matches and failed to score in any of those, but Start's defensive issues mean a point is within reach. The most likely result is a draw, with Fredrikstad's chances of a win rated at 28%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Start vs Fredrikstad: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.