Stoke City vs Hull City Predictions
League Cup · England
Stoke City
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Hull City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.8/10Stoke City Edge Hull in Dramatic Penalty Shootout After 1-1 Cup Thriller
Stoke City booked their place in the next round of the League Cup after a nerve-jangling penalty shootout victory over Hull City at the bet365 Stadium. The match finished 1-1 after 120 minutes, with both sides trading blows in a contest that saw Hull dominate possession but Stoke defend resolutely and strike on the counter. Róbert Boženík fired Stoke ahead in the 39th minute, but Hull responded just before the break through David Akintola. Despite Hull's superior attacking statistics—18 shots to Stoke's 10 and 56% possession—the visitors could not break the deadlock in normal or extra time. The tie was ultimately settled from the spot, where Stoke held their nerve to advance.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
39' — Goal
Róbert Boženík finishes a swift Stoke counter to put the hosts ahead.
45' — Goal
David Akintola equalizes for Hull with a composed finish just before half-time.
90' — Full Time
Match ends 1-1 after 90 minutes, sending the tie into extra time.
120' — End of Extra Time
No further goals; the contest proceeds to penalties.
Penalties' — Shootout
Stoke City prevail in the penalty shootout to advance.
Stoke City
Stoke City showed grit and discipline, soaking up Hull's pressure for long spells and making the most of their opportunities. Despite seeing less of the ball (44% possession) and registering fewer shots on target (4), they were clinical when it mattered, with Boženík's opener a reward for their direct approach. The Potters' defensive unit, marshaled by Ben Wilmot and Luke Graham, stood firm under sustained pressure, while Joshua Griffiths made several important stops. Their resilience was further tested in extra time, but Stoke held on and ultimately triumphed in the penalty shootout, demonstrating composure and mental strength.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hull City
Hull City will rue their missed opportunities after dominating large portions of the match. With 18 shots (6 on target) and 56% possession, they dictated the tempo and created more chances, particularly through the creative influence of Abdülkadir Ömür and the direct running of Liam Millar. David Akintola's equalizer on the stroke of half-time was just reward for their attacking intent. Despite their superiority in midfield and at set pieces (4 corners to Stoke's 1), Hull could not find a way past Griffiths again. Their profligacy in front of goal and inability to convert dominance into goals ultimately cost them, as they faltered in the penalty shootout.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 formations, but the match was shaped by Hull's intent to control possession and Stoke's willingness to absorb pressure and hit on the break. Hull's midfield duo of Gourna-Douath and Hjertø-Dahl enabled them to dictate tempo, with Ömür and Millar providing creativity and width. Stoke, meanwhile, sat deep with Pearson and Galbraith shielding the back four, looking to spring forward quickly through Thomas and Manhoef. As the match wore on, Hull pushed their full-backs higher in search of a winner, but Stoke's defensive discipline held firm. Substitutions (not detailed in the data) likely aimed to inject fresh legs for extra time, but neither side could find a breakthrough, underlining the tactical stalemate and the importance of set pieces and transitions.
Turning Point
The penalty shootout, where Stoke's composure proved decisive after 120 minutes of deadlock.
Man of the Match
Joshua Griffiths
Made crucial saves during the match and held his nerve in the penalty shootout to send Stoke through.
Stoke City vs Hull City: Match Preview
Stoke City return to the Bet365 Stadium after a mixed start to the new campaign, having lost narrowly to Swansea in the league but keeping a clean sheet in their 2-0 League Cup win over Oldham. Hull City, meanwhile, enter this cup tie with no competitive matches played yet this season, relying on a pre-season that produced two wins, two draws, and a loss, but with two clean sheets and a pair of games without scoring. Both sides' recent form lines up closely, with each averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five matches.
Statistically, this fixture is likely to be shaped by defensive discipline and limited attacking output. Stoke's last five show just 3.4 shots and 1 shot on target per game, while Hull's incomplete data from friendlies suggests a similarly cautious approach. Both teams have kept two clean sheets in that span, and Stoke's 100% clean sheet rate in competitive action underlines their focus on organisation. Head-to-head meetings have often been tight: three of the last five finished 1-2 or 1-1, and only one of the last eight exceeded three goals.
The model expects a low-scoring contest, with under 2.5 goals favoured at 66% probability and a 38% chance of a draw. Both teams' lack of attacking sharpness and their recent defensive records point to a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, though a single moment could swing it either way if either side capitalises on a set-piece or error.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
BTTS: Yes
39%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Stoke City vs Hull City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Stoke City vs Hull City that most previews miss.
- 1Stoke's only competitive match this season ended in a 2-0 win, maintaining a 100% clean sheet record.
- 2Hull have failed to score in two of their last five, but have also kept two clean sheets in that span.
- 3Three of the last five H2H meetings have ended with exactly two or three goals, and only one exceeded three.
Who do you think wins: Stoke City vs Hull City?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Stoke City vs Hull City(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last five, with neither showing a clear attacking edge and the H2H record featuring several low-scoring draws or one-goal margins.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams' recent matches trend under 2.5 goals (Stoke's only competitive match this season finished 2-0, Hull's friendlies average 1.2 scored/0.8 conceded), and the H2H shows 5 of the last 8 meetings under this line.
Read more ↓
More League Cup Predictions
The Case For This Stoke City vs Hull City Prediction
Stoke City and Hull City meet in the League Cup with both sides showing similar scoring and defensive rates over their last five matches (1.2 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game). Stoke's home clean sheet in their only competitive fixture this season is offset by Hull's solid away form in pre-season, including two wins and a draw. The statistical profile points to a balanced contest with limited attacking risk from either side. The matchup is shaped by conservative attacking output—Stoke average just 3.4 shots and 1 shot on target per game in their last five, while Hull's data is incomplete but similarly muted. Both teams have kept two clean sheets in their last five, and Stoke's 100% clean sheet rate in competitive action this season signals a disciplined approach. The H2H record is split, but recent meetings have often been decided by a single goal, with three of the last five finishing 1-2 or 1-1. The model projects a low-scoring, cagey affair, with under 2.5 goals favoured (66%) and a high probability of a draw (38%). With neither attack showing sustained threat and both teams trending towards defensive solidity, the likeliest outcome is a 1-1 draw, though a narrow win for either side remains plausible if a set-piece or defensive lapse tips the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams average 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match over their last five.
- →Stoke have kept a clean sheet in their only competitive match this season (2-0 vs Oldham).
- →Hull have failed to score in two of their last five, but have two clean sheets as well.
🚩 Stoke City vs Hull City Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Stoke City and 4 for Hull City, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Stoke City and Hull City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Stoke City vs Hull City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Stoke Citylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hull Citylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stoke arrive on the back of a narrow league defeat to Swansea but posted a 2-0 win in their only competitive cup match, showing defensive stability. Hull have not played a competitive fixture yet this season, but their pre-season included two wins, two draws, and a loss, with mixed attacking output and two clean sheets. Both teams' recent form is defined more by defensive discipline than attacking flair.
Stoke City vs Hull City — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Stoke City vs Hull City
Stoke have the edge historically with six wins in the last ten meetings, but Hull have won two of their last three trips to Stoke. Recent encounters have been close, with three of the last five finishing 1-2 or 1-1, and only one of the last eight exceeding three goals.
Stoke City vs Hull City Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Stoke City wins
2
Draws
3
Hull City wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Stoke City vs Hull City
With no bookmaker odds available, model-based value assessment is limited. The strongest statistical edge lies in the under 2.5 goals market, which the model rates at 66% probability, and in the draw outcome, which is more likely than either side winning outright based on current rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Stoke City vs Hull City
- ⚠️Limited competitive data for Hull this season increases uncertainty around their true level.
- ⚠️Friendlies form is less predictive than league or cup matches; shot and possession stats are incomplete for Hull.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited to model probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Stoke City 1–1 Hull CityA 1-1 draw is the model's baseline call, driven by both sides' matching rates of 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last five. The main risk is Hull's lack of competitive data this season—if their pre-season defensive solidity doesn't translate, the match could see a late winner or a more open second half.
Stoke City vs Hull City: Common Questions
Who will win Stoke City vs Hull City?
The model gives Stoke City a 36% chance of victory, Hull City a 26% chance, and the draw is most likely at 38%. Both sides' recent scoring and concession rates are nearly identical, pointing towards a balanced contest.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with 'No' slightly favoured at 52%. Each side has kept two clean sheets in their last five, but also averages 1.2 goals scored, so a 1-1 draw is the likeliest scoreline.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured by the model at 66% probability, reflecting both teams' recent matches and a head-to-head trend towards low-scoring outcomes. Only one of the last eight H2Hs exceeded three goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Stoke City vs Hull City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.