Sunderland vs Hull City Predictions
League Cup · England
Sunderland
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Hull City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Sunderland Edge Hull City in Tight League Cup Clash at Stadium of Light
Sunderland booked their place in the next round of the League Cup with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Hull City at the Stadium of Light. The hosts enjoyed the lion’s share of possession (55%) and peppered the Hull goal with 14 shots, but were made to work for their breakthrough against a resilient Tigers side. The decisive moment arrived in the 71st minute, when Sunderland finally broke the deadlock after sustained pressure. Hull City, despite conceding more possession and chances, remained in the contest thanks to dogged defending and a disciplined midfield. However, their attacking threat was limited, managing just one shot on target from seven attempts. Ultimately, Sunderland’s greater attacking impetus and control in midfield proved decisive on the night.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
71' — Goal
W. Isidor scores for Sunderland, breaking the deadlock after sustained pressure.
54' — Yellow Card
Hull City's N. Mendy booked for a late challenge, highlighting growing frustration.
63' — Yellow Card
Hull City's M. Crooks receives a yellow card for a tactical foul in midfield.
80' — Yellow Card
Hull City's L. Coyle shown a yellow card as Sunderland threatened on the break.
85' — Yellow Card
Sunderland's C. Rigg cautioned for time-wasting as they looked to see out the win.
Sunderland
Sunderland controlled the tempo for much of the match, dictating play with 55% possession and creating the clearer opportunities. Their 14 shots, four of which were on target, reflected their attacking intent, although they were made to wait until the 71st minute to find the breakthrough. The midfield duo of C. Rigg and Jules Ahoka provided a solid platform, while the backline remained composed under sporadic Hull pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hull City
Hull City battled gamely but were largely second-best in terms of possession and attacking threat. Despite conceding more shots and territory, their defensive organization—marshalled by L. Herrington and N. Mendy—kept Sunderland at bay for over an hour. Going forward, Hull struggled to create clear-cut chances, registering only one shot on target and relying heavily on set pieces, as evidenced by their 12 corners.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Sunderland’s midfield double pivot of C. Rigg and Jules Ahoka providing control and fluidity. The home side looked to stretch Hull with width from C. Talbi and M. Fofana, while W. Isidor operated as the focal point in attack. Sunderland pressed high, forcing Hull into hurried clearances and capitalizing on turnovers. Hull City, meanwhile, relied on a compact defensive block and looked to exploit set pieces, winning 12 corners but failing to convert any. Their midfield, anchored by M. Crooks and L. Gourna-Douath, focused on disrupting Sunderland’s rhythm. As the match wore on, Hull introduced more attacking substitutions, but Sunderland’s defensive organization held firm.
Turning Point
W. Isidor’s 71st-minute goal, which finally rewarded Sunderland’s dominance and forced Hull to chase the game.
Man of the Match
W. Isidor
Scored the decisive goal and was a constant threat in attack, providing the cutting edge Sunderland needed.
Sunderland vs Hull City: Match Preview
Sunderland and Hull City meet at the Stadium of Light in a League Cup tie with recent form lines suggesting little between them. Sunderland arrive off a run of four wins in five, including a narrow 1-0 victory over Fulham, while Hull City have pieced together back-to-back wins, most notably shutting out Manchester United and Coventry. Both sides have been defensively reliable, each posting three clean sheets in their last five and conceding just 0.6 goals per game in that stretch.
The statistical matchup points to a low-event contest. Sunderland's attack has averaged 1.4 goals per game recently, but much of this output came in friendlies; their shot volume (4.6 per match) and shots on target (1.6) are modest. Hull City have been even more conservative, averaging just 0.8 goals and 2.6 shots per match. Both teams have struggled to create chances, and neither has shown a tendency to score early—each with only two first-half goals in their last five. Corners and set-piece opportunities are scarce, and discipline could be a factor, with Hull averaging just over a card per game.
Given these numbers, the model expects a match dictated by defensive organisation and few clear-cut chances. Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured, and the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, consistent with both teams' recent rates and a head-to-head history marked by stalemates.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sunderland vs Hull City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sunderland vs Hull City that most previews miss.
- 1Five of the last ten Sunderland vs Hull City meetings have ended in draws, with three finishing 1-1.
- 2Sunderland have averaged just 1.6 shots on target per game in their last five matches, while Hull City have managed only 1.2.
- 3Both teams have kept three clean sheets in their last five, but Hull have failed to score in two of those matches.
Who do you think wins: Sunderland vs Hull City?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sunderland vs Hull City(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have averaged under 1 goal conceded per match across their last five, with Sunderland at 0.6 and Hull City matching that rate; the model gives a 64% probability to under 2.5 goals in a fixture with little attacking volume.
Read more ↓
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 has been a recurring H2H result (three times in the last ten) and aligns with both teams' recent scoring and conceding rates.
More League Cup Predictions
The Case For This Sunderland vs Hull City Prediction
Statistically, this League Cup tie profiles as a low-scoring, closely contested affair. Both Sunderland and Hull City arrive with solid defensive records over their last five matches, each keeping three clean sheets and conceding just 0.6 goals per game on average. Recent H2H history further supports a tight contest, with five draws in their last ten meetings and a notable frequency of 1-1 scorelines. The matchup is shaped by limited attacking output: Sunderland have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game in their last five, but this is inflated by friendlies, while Hull City have managed just 0.8. Shot volumes are low for both (Sunderland 4.6, Hull 2.6 per match), and neither side has been prolific before half-time, with only two first-half goals each in their last five. Set-piece threat is minimal, with corners averaging under two per game for both teams. Discipline could play a role, as Hull have averaged 1.2 yellows per match recently. Given these rates, the model expects a cautious opening and a match that likely hinges on a single goal or a late equaliser. Under 2.5 goals is favoured, and the most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting both the statistical shape of these teams and their recent head-to-head pattern.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Five of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, with three finishing 1-1.
Defence
- →Both teams have conceded just 0.6 goals per game over their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Sunderland have failed to score in none of their last five, but Hull have failed to score twice in the same span.
🚩 Sunderland vs Hull City Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Sunderland and 5.8 for Hull City, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How Sunderland and Hull City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sunderland vs Hull City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sunderlandlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hull Citylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sunderland come into this tie with four wins in their last five matches, including a clean sheet against Fulham and two victories in friendlies. Hull City are also on a positive run, unbeaten in three and with back-to-back wins over Manchester United and Coventry, both achieved with clean sheets. Both sides have shown defensive solidity, but Hull's attack has been more sporadic, failing to score in two of their last five.
Sunderland vs Hull City — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Sunderland vs Hull City
The last ten meetings between Sunderland and Hull City have been closely contested, with five draws and three of those ending 1-1. Sunderland have edged three wins to Hull's two, but neither side has managed to dominate the fixture. High-scoring matches have been rare, with only one game (the 4-4 in April 2023) producing more than three goals.
Sunderland vs Hull City Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Sunderland wins
4
Draws
2
Hull City wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sunderland vs Hull City
With no bookmaker odds available, value assessment is limited. The model's strongest position is on under 2.5 goals (64% probability), which would likely represent value against a typical cup match line. The 1-1 correct score also stands out as a statistical outlier given the H2H pattern and current defensive rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sunderland vs Hull City
- ⚠️No current season league data for Sunderland; all rates are based on friendlies and very early competitive fixtures.
- ⚠️Lack of bookmaker odds prevents precise value calculation.
- ⚠️Cup lineups can be rotated, introducing additional uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sunderland 1–1 Hull CityThe model projects a 1-1 draw, underpinned by both teams' recent defensive strength—each conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their last five—and a head-to-head record where draws and low scores are common. The main risk lies in the lack of robust season data, especially for Sunderland, and the possibility of rotated lineups in this cup fixture.
Sunderland vs Hull City: Common Questions
Who will win Sunderland vs Hull City?
The model gives Sunderland a 36% chance to win, Hull City a 29% chance, and a draw 35%. With both teams conceding just 0.6 goals per game recently and five draws in their last ten meetings, a stalemate is the most probable result.
Will Sunderland vs Hull City be under or over 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 64% probability. Both sides have averaged well under two goals per match in their last five, and low shot volumes suggest a tight, low-scoring contest.
Is both teams to score (BTTS) likely in Sunderland vs Hull City?
The model estimates a 44% probability for both teams to score. While Sunderland have scored in all of their last five, Hull have failed to score twice in that span, so 'No' is slightly more likely.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sunderland vs Hull City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.