Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W Predictions

Sunderland W PredictionsNewcastle United W PredictionsWomen's ChampionshipH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
Women's ChampionshipWomen's Championship · England
high confidence
Sunderland W

Sunderland W

AI Predicted Score

1 - 2

Newcastle United W

Newcastle United W

🗓️ Sunday, 15 Nov 2026 at 14:00 GMT (venue time) · 14:00 UTC (your time)📍 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Win Probability (1X2)

Sunderland W 25%Draw 31%Newcastle United W 44%

Best Value Pick

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
7/10
Match Result: Newcastle United W Win
6/10

Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W: Match Preview

Sunderland W host league leaders Newcastle United W at the Stadium of Light in a fixture with significant implications for the promotion race. Sunderland sit third with 13 points from six, having won four of their last five in all competitions, while Newcastle arrive unbeaten in the league with five wins and a draw, boasting the division’s best goal difference (+13).

The statistical profile points towards an open contest. Sunderland’s home attack averages 2.33 goals per game and they’ve scored in every league fixture, but their clean sheet rate is just 17%. Newcastle’s away defence is more robust, conceding just 0.67 goals per away game, while their attack leads the league with 2.67 goals per game overall. Both sides see a high rate of over 2.5 goals (Sunderland 83%, Newcastle 67%), and Sunderland’s matches average 3.17 goals, hinting at another high-scoring encounter. Set piece and discipline data are unavailable, but both teams have shown a tendency to score in both halves.

The model gives Newcastle a 44% win probability, with Sunderland at 25% and the draw at 31%. The most likely scenario is Newcastle’s superior defensive record containing Sunderland’s attack, while Newcastle’s front line capitalises on Sunderland’s defensive frailties. A 2-1 away win is the modal outcome, but Sunderland’s scoring consistency keeps the door open for a draw or a high-scoring affair.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Sunderland W1.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Newcastle United W1.75

Expected goals · model says 1.75

Win Probability
Sunderland W 30% Draw 23% Newcastle United W 47%

Over 2.5 Goals

60%

BTTS: Yes

61%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
25%
31%
44%
Sunderland W 25%Draw 31%Newcastle United W 44%
Both Teams to Score
56%
44%
Yes 56%No 44%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
63%
37%
Over 2.5 63%Under 2.5 37%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W that most previews miss.

  • 1Sunderland W’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in five of six league games (83%).
  • 2Newcastle United W have conceded just two goals in three away league games (0.67 per match).
  • 3The last five H2H meetings have produced at least two goals in four out of five games.

Who do you think wins: Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W Prediction

This is a top-of-the-table clash with Newcastle United W travelling to Sunderland W, both sides in the Championship’s top three. Newcastle’s unbeaten start and league-best defensive record contrast with Sunderland’s strong but less consistent home form. The underlying rates point to a match with a high probability of goals, with Newcastle’s attack and defensive solidity likely to tilt the balance.

Key Factors at a Glance

Attack

  • →Sunderland W have scored in every league match and average 2.0 goals per game at home.
  • →83% of Sunderland’s league matches have gone over 2.5 goals, indicating a high-scoring trend.

Defence

  • →Newcastle United W have the league's best defence, conceding just 3 goals in 6 games (0.5 per match).

How Sunderland W and Newcastle United W Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

Sunderland WSunderland Wlast 5 matches
E. HughesXI
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

K. KitchingXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

S. FranssiXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

C. PaxtonXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Newcastle United WNewcastle United Wlast 5 matches
M. ThomasXI
4 goals in 5
80%

In exceptional form

B. LumsdenXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

K. McGovernXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

J. NobbsXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

H. Antonsdottirsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Sunderland W come into this fixture with four wins from their last five in all competitions, only slipping away at Ipswich. Newcastle United W remain unbeaten in the league, taking five wins and a draw, and have scored 16 while conceding just three. Both teams are in positive form, but Newcastle’s defensive numbers and unbeaten run give them the edge.

Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W — Last 6 Matches

Sunderland WSunderland WLast 6 results
L1-3
W3-1
W2-1
D0-0
W2-1
W4-1
L@ Ipswich Town W1-3
Wvs Leicester City FC W3-1
W@ Watford W2-1
Dvs Southampton W0-0
W@ Burnley W2-1
Wvs Bristol City W4-1

Strengths

  • +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
Newcastle United WNewcastle United WLast 6 results
D2-2
W3-0
W4-0
W4-1
W1-0
W2-0
D@ Nottingham Forest W2-2
W@ Durham W3-0
Wvs Leicester City FC W4-0
Wvs Sheffield United W4-1
W@ Bristol City W1-0
Wvs Wolverhampton W2-0

Strengths

  • +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
  • +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season

What History Says: Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W

Newcastle United W have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last five and drawing one. Sunderland W did claim a 1-0 away win in the most recent cup meeting, but Newcastle have scored at least twice in two of their last three away trips to Sunderland.

Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings between these sides

1

Sunderland W wins

1

Draws

3

Newcastle United W wins

20%20% draws60%
18 Oct 26Newcastle United W vs Sunderland W0-1
29 Mar 26Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W1-1
16 Nov 25Newcastle United W vs Sunderland W3-1
23 Mar 25Newcastle United W vs Sunderland W1-0
13 Oct 24Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W1-2

Things to Watch: Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
  • ⚠️Lack of shot, possession, and set piece data limits precision on tactical matchup.
  • ⚠️Recent H2H shows Sunderland W won the last meeting away, suggesting some matchup volatility.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Sunderland W 1–2 Newcastle United W

The model projects a 2-1 win for Newcastle United W, driven primarily by their league-best defensive record and unbeaten start. Sunderland’s ability to score in every game keeps them competitive, but their low clean sheet rate suggests Newcastle’s attack will find a way through. The main risk is Sunderland’s strong home output and the volatility shown in recent H2H, which could see the match swing towards a draw or higher goal tally.

Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W: Common Questions

Who will win Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W?

The model gives Newcastle United W a 44% chance of victory, Sunderland W a 25% chance, and a draw 31%. Newcastle’s unbeaten league record and superior defensive stats make them slight favourites.

Will both teams score in Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W?

There’s a 56% probability both teams score, as Sunderland W have found the net in every league game and Newcastle United W average 2.67 goals per game.

How likely is over 2.5 goals in Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W?

The probability for over 2.5 goals is 63%, with Sunderland W’s matches going over that line in 83% of league fixtures and Newcastle United W in 67%.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sunderland W vs Newcastle United W: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 8 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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