Togo vs Benin Prediction
Togo vs Benin: Model Predicts Tight, Low-Scoring Friendly in 2026 Showdown
International Friendly · World
Togo
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Benin
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Togo vs Benin Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Togo vs Benin Prediction
Togo and Benin meet in a friendly with both sides looking evenly matched, but the model gives Benin a slight edge. With a predicted scoreline of 0-1 and the top three most likely results all featuring one or no goals for Togo, this clash looks set to be a cautious affair. The analytics point to a low-scoring contest, with both teams showing limited attacking momentum and strong defensive records in recent outings. Despite a modest Elo gap of 71 points in Benin's favor, neither team has demonstrated significant attacking firepower or leaky defenses in recent form. The model's final expected goals (λ) are just 0.91 for Togo and 1.00 for Benin, reinforcing the likelihood of a close, defensive match.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Final model expected goals: Togo 0.91, Benin 1.00 after momentum adjustment.
Attack
- →Both teams' recent attacking momentum is below average (Togo 0.87, Benin 0.85), further suppressing expected goals.
Match Context
- →Benin holds a 71-point Elo advantage (1429 vs 1358), translating to a 36.6% away win probability.
- →Top three correct score probabilities: 0-1 (14.8%), 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.5%).
- →BTTS 'No' is favored at 62.2% probability.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.16 · 1.44
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
0.91 · 1.00
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Togo's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Benin's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Togo goals, columns = Benin goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.8%
0-0
14.8%
1-1
13.5%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with Elo ratings as a baseline, giving Benin a 71-point advantage over Togo (1429 vs 1358), which translates into a modest edge in the expected score (0.601 for Benin, 0.399 for Togo). Next, it considers both teams' attack and defense factors, but with limited data on recent xG or player performance, these are set to neutral (factor 1.0), so the Elo baseline remains the primary driver. Momentum adjustments are then applied, with both teams showing below-average recent attacking form (Togo attack multiplier 0.865, Benin 0.85), further reducing their expected goals. This brings the final expected goals (λ) down to 0.91 for Togo and 1.00 for Benin. These scoring rates are then run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities, resulting in a predicted 0-1 scoreline and a strong lean toward low total goals.
More Friendlies Predictions
Togo vs Benin Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Togolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Beninlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Both teams have shown solid defensive form recently, with three clean sheets each in their last five matches. Togo has averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, while Benin has scored 0.6 and conceded 0.8. However, both sides have failed to score in two of their last five, and neither has been involved in high-scoring games. International form data is somewhat sparse, so caution is warranted in interpretation.
Togo vs Benin — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
🚩 Togo vs Benin Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Togo and 4.2 for Benin, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
What History Says: Togo vs Benin
Togo and Benin have a well-documented rivalry, having met nine times in recent years. The record is balanced, with Togo winning twice, Benin once, and six draws. Most matches have been tight, low-scoring affairs, including four 1-1 draws and two goalless stalemates in the last decade.
Togo vs Benin Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
2
Togo wins
6
Draws
1
Benin wins
Things to Watch: Togo vs Benin
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available at the time of writing; no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Form and player data are limited, increasing model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Togo vs Benin: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.