Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
Toronto FC
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Chicago Fire
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Chicago Fire Win
@ 2.1(+9% edge)
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire: Match Preview
Toronto FC enter this match sitting 10th in the table, having drawn six of their eleven home games and winning just three. Their recent form is mixed but trending up, with a 2-1 win at Inter Miami and an entertaining 3-3 home draw with Charlotte. Chicago Fire, third in the league, have won four of their last seven away and are coming off a strong run with 11 wins in 20 matches, boasting the division's third-best attack.
The underlying numbers point to an open contest. Toronto's home matches average exactly 4.0 total goals (22 for, 22 against in 11), and their last five outings have all seen both teams score. Chicago Fire's away record is robust, averaging 1.7 goals for and 1.5 against per away match, with 75% of their league games going over 2.5 goals. Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league fixtures, and disciplinary data suggests a moderate cards environment (combined 4.0 yellows per game recently).
The model expects Chicago's superior attacking efficiency and away record to edge a high-scoring contest. Toronto's recent uptick in attack is offset by defensive frailty, while Chicago's consistent scoring and head-to-head dominance tip the balance. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, with the away side's goal rate and Toronto's defensive numbers driving the projection.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire that most previews miss.
- 1Toronto FC's home matches average exactly 4.0 total goals per game this season (22 scored, 22 conceded in 11).
- 2Chicago Fire have scored in 9 of 10 away matches and have a 40% away win rate.
- 3Both teams have seen BTTS land in all of their last five league games.
Who do you think wins: Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Chicago Fire Win@ 2.08
Chicago Fire have won 4 of their last 7 away matches and average 1.7 goals per away game, while Toronto have just 3 home wins in 11 and concede 2.0 per home match. The model rates Chicago's win probability at 52% versus 47.6% implied by the odds.
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The Case For This Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction
Statistically, this is a high-probability away win in a fixture that consistently produces goals. Toronto's home defence has been porous, conceding 22 in 11 at BMO Field, while Chicago Fire's away attack is among the league's most productive. Both teams have seen BTTS in each of their last five league matches, and the historical head-to-head leans heavily towards the visitors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chicago Fire average 1.7 goals scored per away game and 1.5 conceded, with a 40% away win rate.
- →Toronto FC have just a 27% home win rate and concede exactly 2.0 goals per home match.
Match Context
- →Both teams have scored in 100% of their last 5 league games.
🚩 Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Toronto FC and 4 for Chicago Fire, for an expected total of 8.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 44% · Over 10.5: 20%.
How Toronto FC and Chicago Fire Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Toronto FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chicago Firelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Toronto FC have taken eight points from their last five matches (WDWDL), showing improved attacking output with 1.8 goals per game in that span. Chicago Fire arrive in stronger overall form (LDWWW), with three wins and a draw in their last five and 1.6 goals scored per match, though they lost their most recent outing.
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last ten meetings and three of the last four. The fixture has been high-scoring, averaging 3.0 goals per game in the last five, with BTTS landing in four of those.
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Toronto FC wins
3
Draws
5
Chicago Fire wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
The model finds value on the Chicago Fire win at 2.10, with a 52% model probability versus 47.6% implied by the odds, yielding a +9% edge. No value is found in the BTTS or under 2.5 markets, as bookmaker prices are tighter than the model's estimates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
- ⚠️Toronto's attack has improved recently, averaging 1.8 goals per game over the last five.
- ⚠️Chicago Fire have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Toronto FC 1–2 Chicago FireThe model projects a 2-1 win for Chicago Fire, with the strongest data point being Toronto's 2.0 goals conceded per home game and Chicago's 1.7 scored per away. The main risk is Toronto's recent attacking improvement, which could push the game towards a higher-scoring draw.
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire: Common Questions
Who will win Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
The model gives Chicago Fire a 52% chance of victory, compared to 21% for Toronto and 27% for the draw. Chicago's away attack and head-to-head record are decisive factors.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Yes is rated at 66% probability, with both teams scoring in each of their last five league matches and neither side keeping a clean sheet in that span.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
There's a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals, supported by Toronto's 67% and Chicago's 75% season rates for this market, and a combined average of 3.6 goals per game across their home/away splits.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.