Vanuatu vs Fiji Prediction
Vanuatu vs Fiji: Model Sees Tight Edge for Hosts in Pacific Friendly
International Friendly · World
Vanuatu
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Fiji
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vanuatu vs Fiji Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Vanuatu vs Fiji Prediction
Vanuatu and Fiji meet in Port Vila for a friendly that the model rates as a near coin-flip, with only a slight edge to the hosts. The Elo ratings are virtually level—Vanuatu at 1114 and Fiji at 1108—translating to a razor-thin expected score advantage for Vanuatu (0.509 vs 0.491). Both attack and defense factors are set at baseline, reflecting the lack of granular data for these Oceania sides, but recent form nudges the numbers: Vanuatu’s attack and defense momentum is close to neutral, while Fiji’s recent struggles in attack and leaky defense slightly drag down their expected output. The model’s final expected goals (λ) line lands at 1.50 for Vanuatu and 1.07 for Fiji after factoring in recent momentum. This produces a predicted scoreline of 1-0 to Vanuatu, but the probabilities suggest a wide-open contest: 47% home win, 26% draw, and 27% away win. The most likely correct scores are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, all clustered tightly together, underscoring just how evenly matched these teams are.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Final expected goals: Vanuatu 1.50, Fiji 1.07 after momentum applied
Defence
- →Momentum adjustment: Fiji’s attack dampened (0.85), leakier defense (1.18)
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries or absences reported
Match Context
- →Elo ratings nearly identical: Vanuatu 1114, Fiji 1108 (6-point difference)
- →Most likely scores: 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.2%)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.31 · 1.29
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.50 · 1.07
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Fiji's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Fiji's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Vanuatu goals, columns = Fiji goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.2%
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with Elo ratings, which are almost level for these sides—Vanuatu at 1114 and Fiji at 1108—so the baseline expected score is split nearly evenly (0.509 for Vanuatu, 0.491 for Fiji). Next, the model would usually adjust for attacking and defensive strengths using xG and player data, but for this fixture, those factors are set at neutral due to limited data. Momentum from recent form is then applied: Vanuatu’s attack and defense are both just below baseline (0.973), while Fiji’s attack is notably cold (0.85) and their defense leakier than average (1.18). These multipliers shift the expected goals to 1.50 for Vanuatu and 1.07 for Fiji. Finally, the model runs these scoring rates through a Poisson distribution to simulate exact scorelines, yielding probabilities for all possible results. The most likely outcomes are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, with no single result dominating.
More Friendlies Predictions
Vanuatu vs Fiji Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vanuatulast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fijilast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Vanuatu have shown mixed but improving form, winning their last two and averaging 1.2 goals scored and conceded across their last five. Fiji, meanwhile, have struggled—just one win and one draw in their last five, with a low 0.4 goals scored per game and a concerning 2.6 conceded. Both teams have limited data for deeper statistical analysis, so these trends should be interpreted with caution.
Vanuatu vs Fiji — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Vanuatu vs Fiji
These sides are familiar foes, having met seven times since 2016. Vanuatu hold the historical edge with four wins to Fiji’s one, and two draws. Recent meetings have been competitive, with Vanuatu winning the last encounter 2-0 at home, but Fiji did claim a 4-2 win in 2023. The head-to-head record suggests a slight advantage for Vanuatu, especially on home soil.
Vanuatu vs Fiji Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
4
Vanuatu wins
2
Draws
1
Fiji wins
Things to Watch: Vanuatu vs Fiji
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of writing—no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies often feature experimental lineups and variable motivation.
- ⚠️Sparse underlying data for attack/defense and player-level metrics; model relies heavily on Elo and recent form.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vanuatu vs Fiji: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.