Vanuatu vs Fiji Prediction
Vanuatu vs Fiji: Model Sees Tight Edge for Hosts in Port Vila Friendly
International Friendly · World
Vanuatu
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Fiji
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vanuatu vs Fiji Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Vanuatu vs Fiji?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Vanuatu vs Fiji Prediction
Vanuatu and Fiji meet in Port Vila for a friendly with both sides looking evenly matched on paper. The model gives Vanuatu a slight edge, reflecting their marginal Elo advantage and recent head-to-head success. The predicted scoreline is a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts, but the probabilities suggest a high chance of a close contest, with draws and both teams scoring well in play. Neither side comes in with standout attacking or defensive form, and the analytics reflect this, with both teams showing baseline factors in attack and defense. Momentum slightly favors Vanuatu, whose recent form has been steadier, while Fiji's attack has cooled off in recent matches, impacting their expected goal output.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Final expected goals: Vanuatu 1.50, Fiji 1.07 after momentum adjustments
Defence
- →Fiji's attack momentum is below par (0.85), while their defense is leakier (1.18)
Match Context
- →Vanuatu holds a slim Elo edge (+6 points, 1114 vs 1108)
- →Head-to-head: Vanuatu 4 wins, Fiji 1 in last 7 meetings
- →Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.2%)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.31 · 1.29
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.50 · 1.07
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Fiji's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Fiji's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Vanuatu goals, columns = Fiji goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.2%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with the Elo ratings, which are nearly identical: Vanuatu at 1114 and Fiji at 1108, producing an almost even baseline expected score (0.509 vs 0.491). From there, the attack and defense modules use available xG and suppression factors, but for these sides, the data is sparse, so the model defaults to baseline values. Recent form momentum is where the model finds a meaningful difference. Vanuatu's attack and defense are both slightly above their baseline (0.973), while Fiji's attack is notably underperforming (0.85) and their defense is leakier than average (1.18). These adjustments raise Vanuatu's final expected goals to 1.50 while dropping Fiji's to 1.07. The Poisson model then simulates the scorelines, yielding a 47.2% chance of a Vanuatu win, a 25.8% chance of a draw, and a 27.0% chance for Fiji.
More Friendlies Predictions
Vanuatu vs Fiji Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vanuatulast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fijilast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Vanuatu's recent form is solid, with two straight wins and 7 points from their last five matches, averaging 1.2 goals both scored and conceded. Fiji, on the other hand, have struggled in attack, scoring just 0.4 goals per game in their last five and conceding 2.6, with only one clean sheet. Both teams lack detailed statistical data, making momentum adjustments more significant.
Vanuatu vs Fiji — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Vanuatu vs Fiji
These teams are familiar foes, having met seven times since 2016. Vanuatu hold the upper hand with four wins, including a 2-0 home victory in their most recent meeting. Fiji have managed just one win, with two matches ending in draws. The historical trend favors Vanuatu, especially at home.
Vanuatu vs Fiji Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
4
Vanuatu wins
2
Draws
1
Fiji wins
Things to Watch: Vanuatu vs Fiji
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies often feature squad rotation and unpredictable motivation.
- ⚠️Sparse statistical data for both teams increases model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vanuatu vs Fiji: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.