Vanuatu vs New Caledonia Prediction
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia: Model Favors Away Edge in OFC Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Vanuatu
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
New Caledonia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Vanuatu vs New Caledonia Prediction
Vanuatu and New Caledonia meet in a Friendly International with the model giving New Caledonia a 41% chance of victory, compared to Vanuatu's 32%. The Elo ratings highlight a notable gap: New Caledonia's 1286 rating (ranked 142nd) stands 172 points above Vanuatu's 1114 (171st), setting the away side as slight favourites. Both teams' recent results show mixed form, but Vanuatu have been marginally more consistent, picking up 11 points from their last five matches. Despite the Elo edge, the expected-goals lines are relatively close after all adjustments: Vanuatu's final expected goals (λ) is 1.14, while New Caledonia's is 1.35. The model's predicted scoreline is a narrow 0-1 win for the visitors, but with a low overall confidence due to sparse underlying data and the unpredictable nature of international friendlies in this region.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Final expected goals: Vanuatu 1.14, New Caledonia 1.35, after recent-form momentum adjustments.
- →Head-to-head is tight: 2 wins for New Caledonia, 1 for Vanuatu, 3 draws in their last 6 meetings.
Attack
- →Vanuatu's recent attack momentum is positive (1.135), slightly raising their expected goals.
Match Context
- →New Caledonia's Elo rating is 172 points higher than Vanuatu's (1286 vs 1114), driving a 41% away win probability.
- →The most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12.8%), but the model predicts a 0-1 away win.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
0.96 · 1.64
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.14 · 1.35
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Vanuatu attacking form lifts their goals ×1.14.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Vanuatu goals, columns = New Caledonia goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
9.5%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vanuatu vs New Caledonia that most previews miss.
- 1Vanuatu have scored in all of their last five matches, averaging 1.8 goals per game.
- 2Four of Vanuatu's last five matches saw both teams score, compared to just one for New Caledonia.
- 3The most probable correct score is 1-1 (12.8%), with 0-1 (11.2%) and 1-0 (9.5%) close behind.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with Elo ratings, where New Caledonia's 1286 rating gives them a substantial baseline advantage over Vanuatu's 1114, translating to a 0.729 expected Elo score for the away side. Next, the model would typically blend xG attack and defence factors, but due to limited data, both teams are treated as average (all factors set to 1). This means the Elo baseline remains the primary driver. Recent form is then applied as a momentum multiplier: Vanuatu's attack is slightly hot (1.135), nudging their expected goals up from the blended 1.09 to a final 1.14. New Caledonia's attack is a touch below par (0.973), bringing their final expected goals down from 1.51 to 1.35. These expected-goals values are then used in a Poisson model to simulate exact scorelines and probabilities, resulting in a 41% away win probability, 32% home win, and 27% draw.
More Friendlies Predictions
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vanuatulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New Caledonialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vanuatu are unbeaten in their last five matches (DWWWD), scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding just one on average. Their recent form is underpinned by an 11-point haul and a positive attack momentum multiplier (1.135). New Caledonia's recent form is more mixed (LWLWD), with a lower average of 1.2 goals scored per game and two clean sheets in their last five, but they have failed to score twice in that span.
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Vanuatu vs New Caledonia
The head-to-head record is finely balanced: in six recent meetings, New Caledonia have two wins, Vanuatu one, and three have ended in draws. Notably, the last two encounters (both in 2024) finished goalless, suggesting a close match-up. Their results have ranged from high-scoring draws to narrow wins, underlining the competitive nature of this fixture.
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
1
Vanuatu wins
3
Draws
2
New Caledonia wins
Things to Watch: Vanuatu vs New Caledonia
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available at the time of writing, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️Model confidence is low due to sparse xG and player data for both teams.
- ⚠️International friendlies in this region are particularly unpredictable, and recent form data may not translate directly to this match.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vanuatu 0–1 New CaledoniaThe model narrowly favours New Caledonia, projecting a 0-1 away win based on their 41% win probability and Elo superiority. The single strongest factor is the 172-point Elo gap, but with both teams' xG and defensive numbers set to neutral due to sparse data, the prediction carries low confidence. The most plausible way this goes wrong is Vanuatu's recent attacking form translating into more goals than the model expects, especially given their tendency to score at home.
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia: Common Questions
Who will win Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
The model gives New Caledonia a 41% chance of winning, Vanuatu a 32% chance, and a 27% probability for a draw. The predicted score is 0-1 to New Caledonia, but confidence is low due to limited data.
What are the chances of both teams scoring in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?
The model rates both teams to score (BTTS) at just over 50% (0.504), reflecting Vanuatu's recent attacking momentum and both teams' defensive records.
How close is the head-to-head record between Vanuatu and New Caledonia?
In their last six meetings, New Caledonia have two wins, Vanuatu one, and three matches have ended in draws. The most recent two encounters both finished 0-0.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vanuatu vs New Caledonia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 18 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.