Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Vasco DA Gama
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Flamengo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Flamengo Win
@ 2(+8% edge)
Recommended Bets: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo: Match Preview
Vasco DA Gama enter this fixture in 15th place, just clear of the relegation zone, and have lost momentum with back-to-back defeats in all competitions. Their home form is mid-table (7 wins from 15), but they have struggled for consistency, scoring just once in their last two outings. Flamengo, by contrast, sit top of Serie A with 67 points from 31 matches and have lost only four times all season. Their away record is formidable: nine wins, four draws, and three defeats, with 32 goals scored on the road.
Statistically, Flamengo's attack is the most potent in the league, averaging 1.97 goals per game overall and 2.0 away from home. Vasco's defence is vulnerable, conceding 1.43 per game and keeping clean sheets in just 13% of matches. Both sides have a strong over 2.5 goals profile (Vasco 56.7%, Flamengo 61.3%), and Flamengo's matches average 2.77 goals. The first half is likely to be cagey—Vasco average only 0.4 first-half goals in their last five—while Flamengo have scored three first-half goals in the same span. Set-piece data shows both teams average over 5 corners per match, suggesting opportunities from dead balls.
The model expects Flamengo's superior attacking rates and defensive solidity to tilt the balance, projecting a 2-1 away win as the most likely outcome. Vasco's home inconsistencies and Flamengo's ability to control matches on the road drive this forecast, but the high H2H draw rate and Vasco's occasional resilience at São Januário mean a draw cannot be discounted.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo that most previews miss.
- 1Flamengo's away matches average 2.94 goals per game, highest in the league among top six sides.
- 2Vasco have kept just two clean sheets in their last ten home matches, conceding 1.2 goals per home game.
- 3Five of the last ten Vasco–Flamengo meetings have ended as draws, but Vasco have not won any.
Who do you think wins: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Flamengo Win@ 2.01
Flamengo have won 9 of 16 away matches this season (56%) and boast a league-best away attack (2.0 goals per game), while Vasco have lost 5 of 15 at home and average just 1.2 goals scored per game overall.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.85
Both teams rank above league average for over 2.5 goals (Vasco 56.7%, Flamengo 61.3%), and Flamengo's matches average 2.77 goals per game.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Prediction
This is a statistical mismatch in both league position and underlying rates: Flamengo's away scoring (2.0 goals/game) and clean sheet rate (45%) dwarf Vasco's home output and defensive record. The data points to an open contest with a high probability of goals, as both teams have a strong over 2.5 record and Vasco's home matches average 2.6 goals. Flamengo's away win probability is the highest model edge, but the distribution also supports a draw as a secondary outcome given the H2H draw rate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Vasco have conceded in 10 of 15 home matches and keep clean sheets just 13% of the time.
Match Context
- →Flamengo average 2.0 goals per away game and have a 56% away win rate.
- →Five of the last ten H2H meetings ended in draws, but Flamengo have not lost any.
🚩 Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Vasco DA Gama and 6.3 for Flamengo, for an expected total of 11.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (71%). Over 8.5: 81% · Over 10.5: 60%.
How Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vasco DA Gamalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Flamengolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasco's recent form has dipped, with two consecutive losses and just one win in their last five across competitions. Their attack has been inconsistent, failing to score in two of those matches. Flamengo, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five league games (WDWDW), averaging 1.6 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per match in that span.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 55% avg
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +45.16% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
Flamengo have dominated this fixture in recent years, unbeaten in the last ten meetings with Vasco, including five wins and five draws. The most recent league clash ended 2-2, and draws have been common, but Vasco have not managed a victory over Flamengo since 2023.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
Vasco DA Gama wins
5
Draws
5
Flamengo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
The model sees the most value on Flamengo to win at even money (2.0), with an 8% edge over the implied probability. Over 2.5 goals is also priced attractively given the high rates from both sides. The BTTS market offers less value, as the odds slightly overstate the likelihood compared to the model's estimate.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
- ⚠️Vasco's home attack is inconsistent, with two failed-to-score results in their last five at home.
- ⚠️Flamengo's schedule includes continental fixtures, which could impact rotation or fatigue, but no injuries are reported.
- ⚠️H2H history shows a high draw rate (50% in last 10), tempering away win confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vasco DA Gama 1–2 FlamengoThe model projects a 2-1 win for Flamengo, driven by their league-best away scoring rate (2.0 goals per game) and Vasco's low home clean sheet percentage (13%). The biggest risk to this outcome is the high draw frequency in recent H2H meetings, which could resurface if Vasco manage to frustrate Flamengo's attack for long spells.
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo: Common Questions
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Flamengo are favoured with a 54% win probability, reflecting their 9 away wins from 16 and a +36 goal difference, while Vasco's home win chance stands at just 18%. The draw is a significant secondary outcome at 28%, given the H2H pattern.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Vasco vs Flamengo?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 58%, supported by both teams' season rates (Vasco 56.7%, Flamengo 61.3%) and Flamengo's away matches averaging nearly 3 goals per game.
How likely is both teams to score (BTTS) in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, as Vasco have scored in 67% of home matches and Flamengo have found the net in 81% of away games, but Flamengo's clean sheet rate (45%) keeps the 'no' side in play.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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