Venezia vs Fiorentina Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Venezia
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Fiorentina
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+7% edge)
Match Result
8.2/10Fiorentina Blitz Venezia with Second-Half Surge in Six-Goal Thriller
Fiorentina produced a ruthless attacking display to overpower Venezia 4-2 at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, coming from behind and then pulling away with a clinical second-half performance. Despite Venezia dominating possession with 63%, it was Fiorentina who made their chances count, firing 19 shots with 10 on target compared to the hosts' 11 and 4 respectively. The match swung on a rapid-fire double just before the half-hour, as Fiorentina overturned an early deficit and never looked back. Venezia took the lead in the 22nd minute, but Fiorentina responded swiftly with goals in the 29th and 30th minutes to seize control before half-time. The visitors then extended their advantage in the 66th minute and effectively killed the contest with a fourth in the 84th. Venezia's late goal in the 86th was little more than consolation, as Fiorentina's efficiency in front of goal proved decisive.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 4
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
John Yeboah puts Venezia ahead after a well-worked move.
29' — Goal
Beto equalizes for Fiorentina, finishing off a swift counter.
30' — Goal
Beto strikes again a minute later, giving Fiorentina the lead.
66' — Goal
Fiorentina extend their lead to 3-1, capitalizing on defensive confusion.
84' — Goal
Fiorentina score their fourth, ending any hopes of a Venezia comeback.
86' — Goal
Venezia pull one back, but it's too little, too late.
Venezia
Venezia started brightly, controlling the tempo and dictating play with a commanding 63% possession. Their midfield, marshaled by Gianluca Busio and Kike Pérez, moved the ball well and created the opening goal in the 22nd minute. However, defensive lapses and a lack of cutting edge in the final third undermined their efforts, as they struggled to contain Fiorentina's incisive counter-attacks. Despite rallying late and pulling a goal back in the 86th minute, Venezia were ultimately outgunned. Their 11 shots produced only 4 on target, and they were unable to convert their dominance of the ball into sustained pressure or clear-cut chances.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Fiorentina
Fiorentina delivered a statement performance on the road, combining defensive resilience with devastating attacking transitions. Despite seeing just 37% of the ball, they were relentless on the break, racking up 19 shots and 10 on target. Their response to falling behind was immediate and emphatic, with two goals in two minutes flipping the match on its head. The visitors' front line, spearheaded by Beto, was clinical, while the midfield trio of Cher Ndour, Nicolò Fagioli, and Franco Mastantuono provided the energy and creativity to exploit Venezia's high line. Fiorentina's defensive unit, marshaled by Radu Drăguşin and Luca Ranieri, weathered periods of pressure and ensured the result was never truly in doubt after their third goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Venezia lined up in a 3-5-2, seeking to dominate the midfield and control possession. Their approach worked in the early stages, as they circulated the ball confidently and forced Fiorentina to defend deep. However, their wing-backs were frequently caught high, leaving space for Fiorentina to exploit on the counter. Fiorentina's 4-2-3-1 was designed for quick transitions, with Mastantuono and Fagioli supplying the front four. The visitors sat compact, absorbed pressure, and broke at speed, punishing Venezia's defensive gaps. Substitutions in the second half allowed Fiorentina to reinforce midfield and see out the game, while Venezia's changes failed to spark a meaningful turnaround.
Turning Point
Beto's rapid brace in the 29th and 30th minutes, which completely shifted momentum to Fiorentina.
Man of the Match
Beto
His two goals in as many minutes swung the match and set the tone for Fiorentina's victory.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Match Preview
Venezia and Fiorentina both come into this fixture rooted to the foot of the Serie A table, each with zero points and zero goals after two matches. Venezia's attacking output has been more promising than the scorelines suggest—19 shots and 7 on target in their home loss to Lecce—while Fiorentina's defensive collapse (seven conceded in two) has left them with the league's worst goal difference. The early pressure is on both managers to arrest these poor starts, with neither side able to afford another blank.
Statistically, this is a matchup of two blunt attacks against leaky defences. Venezia average 1.2 goals scored and 2 conceded across their last five in all competitions, but have failed to score in their two Serie A outings. Fiorentina's last five average is similar (1.4 scored, 2.2 conceded), but their league defence has been especially porous, conceding 3 at home to Frosinone and 4 away at Roma. Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, and neither has scored in the second half of a league game this season. Corners and fouls are near league average, with no clear set-piece edge.
With the market pricing this almost dead even (2.7 home, 2.55 away), the model finds little to separate the sides. Draw is the marginal value given the lack of cutting edge and confidence in either attack, and the H2H record (three of last four under 2.5 goals) supports a low-scoring, cagey contest. Expect a tense, risk-averse first half, with both teams likely to settle for a point if parity remains late on.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Venezia vs Fiorentina
The model's probabilities align closely with the market, but the draw stands out as a slight value at odds of 3.25 versus a model probability of 33%. Other markets, such as BTTS and over/under 2.5, appear efficiently priced given the data. With both teams struggling for goals and confidence, the lack of a clear favourite makes the draw the only selection with a meaningful edge.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Venezia vs Fiorentina(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.31
Both sides have opened the Serie A campaign with two straight defeats and have failed to score in either league match, while their underlying numbers (Venezia 1.2 goals scored/2 conceded, Fiorentina 1.4/2.2 in last five overall) point to little between them. The model gives the draw a 33% chance (implied odds 3.03), ahead of the market's 31% (odds 3.25), suggesting a modest value edge in a low-confidence, low-margin game.
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Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Venezia vs Fiorentina that most previews miss.
- 1Three of the last four Venezia-Fiorentina meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, and only one saw both teams score.
- 2Venezia have failed to score in both Serie A matches but averaged 12.4 shots and 4.6 on target per game over their last five competitive outings.
- 3Fiorentina's defence has allowed 7 goals in two league matches, but they have not scored themselves, with both teams failing to score in all four of their combined Serie A games this season.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction
The market sees this as a coin flip, with both Venezia and Fiorentina winless and goalless in Serie A so far, and the model's probabilities echo that stalemate. The value edges are slim, but the draw stands out slightly given the lack of attacking conviction and the defensive frailties on display.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams have lost their opening two Serie A matches without scoring a goal.
- →Venezia's home xG and shot volume are solid (19 shots, 7 on target vs Lecce) but finishing is lacking.
Defence
- →Fiorentina have conceded 7 in two league games, including 4 away at Roma, but their attack is also yet to fire.
🚩 Venezia vs Fiorentina Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Venezia and 5 for Fiorentina, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Venezia and Fiorentina Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Venezia vs Fiorentina Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Venezialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fiorentinalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Venezia's recent form reads LLLWD, with three straight defeats and no goals in their two Serie A matches, despite decent attacking numbers in the Coppa Italia. Fiorentina are in equally poor shape, losing both league games (0-4 at Roma, 0-3 to Frosinone) and conceding heavily. Neither side has found any attacking fluency, and both are searching for their first point of the campaign.
Venezia vs Fiorentina — Last 2 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Venezia vs Fiorentina
Venezia have had the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning two of the last four, including a 2-1 home victory in May 2025. However, three of those four meetings ended under 2.5 goals, and both teams have rarely scored in the same match. The H2H suggests a tight, low-scoring affair is likely.
Venezia vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Venezia wins
1
Draws
1
Fiorentina wins
Things to Watch: Venezia vs Fiorentina
- ⚠️Both teams are in early-season flux, so recent Coppa/league lineups may not reflect their best XIs.
- ⚠️Low sample size for league form (2 matches each); pre-season friendlies are less predictive.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but squad rotation risk is high this early in the campaign.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Venezia 1–1 FiorentinaThis fixture sets up as a stalemate between two sides yet to find their attacking rhythm, with the model's 1-1 prediction reflecting both the lack of firepower and the defensive uncertainty on show. The strongest data point is the shared inability to score in Serie A so far, while the biggest risk is that one side's attack finally clicks against a vulnerable back line.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: Common Questions
Who will win Venezia vs Fiorentina?
The model rates this as a true toss-up, with Venezia at 34%, Fiorentina at 33%, and the draw at 33%. Both teams have started the season with two defeats and no goals, so the most likely outcome is a draw.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
The probability for both teams to score is 51%. While both sides have failed to score in Serie A so far, their underlying shot numbers and defensive weaknesses suggest this could be the game where both finally get on the scoresheet.
Is there value in betting the draw for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Yes, the model gives a 33% chance to the draw (implied odds 3.03), while the market offers 3.25 (31%). This creates a modest value edge, supported by both teams' lack of attacking conviction and a recent H2H trend towards low-scoring draws.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Venezia vs Fiorentina: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.