VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
VfB Stuttgart
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 2
Borussia Dortmund
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4(+16% edge)
Match Result
7/10Guirassy Strike Seals Dortmund Victory in Tight Stuttgart Contest
Borussia Dortmund edged past VfB Stuttgart with a narrow 1-0 win at the MHP Arena, courtesy of a decisive second-half goal from Serhou Guirassy. In a match where both sides fielded matching 3-4-2-1 formations, Stuttgart enjoyed more possession and created several promising chances, but Dortmund’s clinical edge and defensive resilience proved the difference. Stuttgart controlled the ball for long spells (56% possession) and registered 12 shots, 5 of which were on target, but were repeatedly denied by Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel. Dortmund, meanwhile, made the most of their opportunities, with Guirassy breaking the deadlock in the 70th minute. Despite Stuttgart’s late push and a flurry of corners, Dortmund held firm, even as the visitors picked up five yellow cards in a physical encounter.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
70' — Goal
Serhou Guirassy scores for Dortmund, finishing a rare attacking move to put the visitors ahead.
various' — Yellow Cards
Dortmund pick up five yellow cards as they disrupt Stuttgart’s rhythm with tactical fouls.
late second half' — Stuttgart corners
Stuttgart press for an equaliser, winning a series of corners but failing to convert.
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart started brightly, dictating the tempo and looking to exploit the flanks through Chris Führich and Josha Vagnoman. Their control of possession translated into a number of half-chances, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. Despite firing 12 shots and winning six corners, they failed to find a way past Kobel, and their frustration grew as Dortmund’s defence stood tall. The home side’s midfield, marshalled by Angelo Stiller and Grischa Prömel, kept Dortmund’s creative threats largely at bay until the decisive moment. However, after conceding, Stuttgart’s response was spirited but ultimately lacked precision in front of goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund weathered Stuttgart’s early pressure and gradually grew into the game, showing discipline and organisation in defence. Though out-possessed, they remained dangerous on the break and made their 13 shots count, even if only two tested the goalkeeper. The breakthrough came in the 70th minute when Serhou Guirassy finished off a rare clear chance, capitalising on a lapse in Stuttgart’s backline. Dortmund’s defensive trio, led by Nico Schlotterbeck, absorbed Stuttgart’s attacks, while Kobel’s saves proved crucial. The visitors’ physical approach was evident in their five yellow cards, but they managed the game well in the closing stages to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, leading to a congested midfield battle and mirrored wing play. Stuttgart sought to control possession and build from the back, with their wing-backs pushing high to stretch Dortmund’s defensive line. However, Dortmund’s disciplined back three and compact midfield limited the hosts’ space in the final third. Dortmund’s approach was more pragmatic, focusing on disciplined defending and quick transitions. Their physicality disrupted Stuttgart’s rhythm, as evidenced by their high foul and yellow card count. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical landscape, with both sides sticking to their initial shapes.
Turning Point
Serhou Guirassy’s 70th-minute goal, which shifted momentum and forced Stuttgart to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Serhou Guirassy
Scored the decisive goal and proved the difference in a tightly contested match.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: Match Preview
Stuttgart enter this fixture on a wave of confidence after back-to-back wins, including a 3-1 Champions League triumph and a commanding 4-1 home victory over Köln. Their attacking output has surged—averaging 2.4 goals and 14.2 shots per game in their last five—while the likes of Demirovic and Pejcinovic have found the net with regularity. Dortmund, meanwhile, have strung together four straight wins, including a Champions League thriller against Villarreal and a hard-fought 3-2 away success at Hoffenheim, placing them third in the Bundesliga with maximum points and a +3 goal difference.
The tactical narrative is shaped by both sides' attacking momentum and defensive vulnerabilities. Stuttgart's home record is formidable—eight goals in their last two at the MHPArena—while Dortmund's away form is equally potent, notching three at Hoffenheim and five in the DFB Pokal. Both teams average over 4.5 shots on target and 5+ corners per game, and neither has kept more than two clean sheets in their last five. Timing of goals is also crucial: both sides have split their last 12 goals almost evenly between halves, hinting at sustained attacking threat throughout the match.
Given the form trajectories, expect a match played at high tempo with both teams pushing for goals. The model leans towards a score draw, with neither side likely to sit back given their recent attacking success and defensive openness. The most plausible scenario is both teams scoring early, momentum swinging back and forth, and the contest remaining live into the final minutes.
How VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
VfB Stuttgartlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Borussia Dortmundlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stuttgart have bounced back impressively from their opening Bundesliga defeat, stringing together three wins in their last four across all competitions, including a 4-1 league win and a 3-1 Champions League result. Dortmund are arguably the form team in Germany right now, riding a four-match winning streak that includes a 3-2 away win at Hoffenheim and a Champions League victory. Both sides are scoring freely, but defensive lapses remain a concern for each.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund that most previews miss.
- 1Dortmund have scored at least twice in four consecutive matches, with three of those featuring both teams on the scoresheet.
- 2Stuttgart's last two home games in all competitions have produced a combined 7 goals (4-1, 3-1), with 6 different scorers involved.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have seen both teams score, and two of the last five have ended in draws.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
71%
BTTS: Yes
70%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Momentum is the defining theme as Stuttgart, fresh from a 3-1 Champions League win and a 4-1 demolition of Köln, host a Dortmund side boasting four consecutive victories across all competitions. Both teams have been prolific—Stuttgart averaging 2.4 goals and Dortmund 2.8 in their last five—while neither has looked impenetrable at the back. The data points to a high-octane contest where recent attacking surges outweigh early-season defensive frailties.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Dortmund's current four-match winning streak, including away wins and a Champions League scalp.
- →Stuttgart's home form: 4-1 win in their only Bundesliga home game this season, 3-1 at home in Europe.
Attack
- →Both teams averaging over 2.5 goals scored per game in their last five matches.
Where the Model Sees Value: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.79
Both sides arrive in strong form—Stuttgart have won three of their last four in all competitions, while Dortmund ride a four-match winning streak—yet their recent head-to-heads have produced two draws in the last five meetings and the underlying shot and xG numbers suggest little to separate them. The model rates the draw at 29% (odds 3.45), offering a significant edge over the market.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.33
Stuttgart have scored in four of their last five, averaging 2.4 goals per game, and Dortmund have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of their last five (despite two clean sheets overall). With both attacks in rhythm and each side averaging over 4.5 shots on target per match, BTTS is highly probable.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
🚩 VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for VfB Stuttgart and 7 for Borussia Dortmund, for an expected total of 12.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (82%). Over 8.5: 89% · Over 10.5: 73%.
What History Says: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
Stuttgart have enjoyed the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning five of the last ten, including a memorable 5-1 at home in 2024. However, Dortmund took the last meeting 2-0 away, and two of the last five have finished level. Both teams have found the net in six of the last ten encounters, underlining the likelihood of goals at both ends.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
VfB Stuttgart wins
2
Draws
3
Borussia Dortmund wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
The model sees the biggest value on the draw at odds of 4.0, with a 29% model probability versus a 25% market implied probability (+16% edge), reflecting the evenly matched form and goal trends. BTTS 'yes' is also well supported by the data, but the market is already short at 1.33, leaving only marginal value. Unders on 2.5 goals is overpriced by the market, but the attacking momentum on both sides makes it a risky play.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
- ⚠️Early in the season, so some volatility in true team strength remains.
- ⚠️Both sides have shown some defensive lapses (Stuttgart 6 conceded in 2 Bundesliga games, Dortmund 2 in 2), which could swing the match if one attack underperforms.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but starting lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
VfB Stuttgart 2–2 Borussia DortmundA 2-2 draw is the likeliest outcome, driven by both teams' surging attacking form and a pattern of high-scoring, closely contested recent meetings. The single strongest data point is Dortmund's four-match winning streak, but Stuttgart's home firepower and recent results suggest they are more than capable of matching them. The main risk is that one side's attack stalls—particularly if Dortmund's slightly superior defensive record holds—but the weight of momentum and shot data favours a goal-rich stalemate.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: Common Questions
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model rates this as an extremely close contest: Stuttgart win 37%, draw 29%, Dortmund win 34%. Both sides are in excellent form, so a draw (especially a score draw) is the likeliest single outcome.
Will both teams score in Stuttgart vs Dortmund?
Yes is strongly favoured at 76% probability. Both teams have scored in three of their last five matches and six of the last ten head-to-heads, with each averaging over 2.4 goals per game recently.
Can Dortmund's winning streak continue away to Stuttgart?
Dortmund are on a four-match winning run, but Stuttgart's home form and attacking numbers mean the model gives them only a 34% chance of victory. A draw or narrow home win is just as likely, given the hosts' recent momentum.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.