VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
VfB Stuttgart
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 2
Werder Bremen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Werder Bremen Win
@ 5.25(+73% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Stuttgart Edge Bremen in Gritty Contest at MHP Arena
VfB Stuttgart secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Werder Bremen at the MHP Arena, thanks to an early goal that proved decisive in a match marked by Bremen's dominance in possession but a lack of clinical finishing. The hosts struck in the 7th minute and withstood sustained pressure from Bremen, who racked up 24 shots but were unable to break through a resolute Stuttgart defense. Despite Bremen's 57% possession and a barrage of attempts, both sides managed just five shots on target each, underscoring the tightness of the contest. Bremen's frustration was evident as they collected three yellow cards, while Stuttgart remained disciplined and organized, holding on for a valuable three points in front of their home fans.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
D. Undav scores for Stuttgart, putting the hosts ahead early.
22' — Yellow Card
Werder Bremen receive their first yellow card as frustration begins to show.
55' — Yellow Card
Another Bremen player booked as they push for an equalizer.
70' — Yellow Card
Third yellow for Bremen, reflecting their increasingly desperate attempts to break down Stuttgart.
83' — Save
D. Seimen makes a crucial stop to deny Bremen's best chance of the game.
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart started brightly, capitalizing on their early momentum to take the lead in the 7th minute. From there, they adopted a pragmatic approach, sitting deeper and relying on a compact 3-4-2-1 formation to absorb Bremen's pressure. Their defensive unit, marshaled by J. Chabot and R. Hendriks, held firm despite conceding 24 shots, and goalkeeper D. Seimen was alert whenever called upon. Going forward, Stuttgart were less adventurous after their opener, finishing with 43% possession and 13 total shots. Their ability to frustrate Bremen and maintain discipline—committing only six fouls and avoiding any bookings—was key to preserving their slender advantage.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen dominated large spells of the match, controlling 57% of possession and generating 24 shots, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third ultimately cost them. Despite matching Stuttgart with five shots on target, Bremen were repeatedly denied by the home defense and goalkeeper D. Seimen. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed them to dictate play, but frustration grew as chances went begging. Bremen's aggressive approach led to three yellow cards and eight fouls, reflecting their struggle to break down Stuttgart's disciplined lines. Ultimately, their profligacy in front of goal and inability to convert dominance into goals left them empty-handed.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Stuttgart lined up in a 3-4-2-1, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. After taking the lead, they dropped deeper, focusing on compactness between the lines and crowding the central areas to frustrate Bremen's attackers. The wing-backs, J. Leweling and M. Mittelstädt, balanced defensive duties with occasional forays forward but primarily supported the back three. Bremen's 4-2-3-1 offered control in midfield and width through the full-backs, but their attacks often broke down in the final third due to Stuttgart's disciplined shape. Bremen's pressing forced a few turnovers, yet their inability to convert high shot volume into goals proved costly. Set pieces provided some threat, but Stuttgart defended their box with determination.
Turning Point
D. Undav's early goal in the 7th minute set the tone, allowing Stuttgart to shape the match on their terms and forcing Bremen to chase the game.
Man of the Match
D. Seimen
Produced several vital saves and commanded his area to preserve Stuttgart's clean sheet despite Bremen's 24 shots.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: Match Preview
Stuttgart approach this fixture under pressure, sitting 15th in the Bundesliga after five defeats in their opening seven matches. Despite dominating possession and shot counts in recent outings (averaging 63.6% possession, 18.4 shots per match in the last five), they have struggled to turn control into points, losing three of their last five and conceding late goals. Werder Bremen, meanwhile, arrive in seventh with a far more robust record, having lost just once in seven and scoring freely—15 goals already, with Niclas Füllkrug in prolific form.
The tactical battle will centre on Stuttgart’s ability to break down Bremen’s vulnerable back line, which has yet to keep a clean sheet this season and concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game. However, Bremen’s attack is equally potent, especially after the interval: they have scored seven of their last nine league goals in the second half, and their away matches average 4 goals per game. Both teams’ recent matches trend heavily towards BTTS and over 2.5 goals, while set-piece metrics favour Stuttgart, who average 7.6 corners per game.
Given these dynamics, the model expects a high-tempo, open contest with goals at both ends. The market’s strong preference for Stuttgart does not align with the underlying numbers—Bremen’s attack and Stuttgart’s defensive frailties make the away and draw outcomes much more likely than the odds suggest. Expect chances for both sides, with the visitors’ firepower and Stuttgart’s home urgency combining for a likely score draw.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
The market’s strong lean towards Stuttgart (1.48 home win odds) is not supported by the underlying data, with the model finding Bremen and the draw both significantly undervalued. The away win and draw probabilities are 33% and 30% respectively, compared to market implied probabilities of just 19% and 21%. There is little value in the goal markets, where the odds closely match the model’s expectations.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Werder Bremen Win@ 5.37
Werder Bremen’s attacking output (2.14 goals per game, 85.7% over 2.5 goals) and resilient away form (only one away defeat in four) are being undervalued by the market, with the model’s 33% away win probability far outstripping the 19% implied by odds of 5.25.
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Match Result: Draw@ 4.92
With both sides showing high BTTS rates (Stuttgart 40%, Bremen 57% in last 5) and a history of stalemates (three draws in last ten H2H), the model’s 30% draw probability offers notable value over the 21% implied by the market.
Read more ↓
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen that most previews miss.
- 1Werder Bremen’s last five away games have averaged 4.0 total goals, and all but one of their Bundesliga matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals.
- 2Stuttgart have failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last seven league matches, conceding at least once in every home game.
- 3The last three Bundesliga meetings at Stuttgart’s ground have produced BTTS and over 2.5 goals each time.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
70%
BTTS: Yes
70%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Prediction
Bookmakers have Stuttgart as strong favourites at home, but the data paints a far more balanced contest. Werder Bremen’s consistent attacking output and Stuttgart’s defensive vulnerabilities suggest the visitors are being underestimated, especially given the high-scoring tendencies on both sides. The model’s probabilities diverge sharply from the market, especially on the away and draw outcomes, highlighting significant value in a fixture that looks far more open than the odds suggest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Werder Bremen average 2.14 goals scored per game this season, with 85.7% of matches going over 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league games, with Bremen conceding 3.2 goals per match in that span.
Match Context
- →Stuttgart have lost five of their seven Bundesliga matches and managed just one win in three at home.
🚩 VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for VfB Stuttgart and 4.7 for Werder Bremen, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
VfB Stuttgartlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Werder Bremenlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Stuttgart’s recent form is patchy, with just two wins and five defeats in their opening seven league matches, and a home record of one win in three. Bremen, by contrast, have lost only once in the league and are unbeaten in their last three, scoring at least twice in each of those games. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring, open matches, but Bremen’s momentum and attacking consistency stand out.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 64% avg
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
The head-to-head record is remarkably even, with four wins for Stuttgart, three for Bremen, and three draws in the last ten meetings. Recent clashes have been high-scoring: seven of the last ten have seen both teams score, and the last three at Stuttgart’s ground have all finished with BTTS and over 2.5 goals. The most recent fixture here ended 1-1.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
VfB Stuttgart wins
3
Draws
3
Werder Bremen wins
Things to Watch: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- ⚠️Stuttgart’s underlying shot and possession metrics (18.4 shots, 63.6% possession in last 5) suggest they can dominate weaker sides, but have not converted this into consistent results.
- ⚠️Bremen’s defensive record is poor (no clean sheets all season, 2.0 goals conceded per game), raising volatility risk.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but both sides have rotated lineups recently, introducing some uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
VfB Stuttgart 2–2 Werder BremenThe model calls this as a 2-2 draw, with Werder Bremen’s attacking output (2.14 goals per game, 85.7% over 2.5) and Stuttgart’s defensive lapses the decisive factors. The single strongest data point is Bremen’s consistent scoring, even away, combined with Stuttgart’s inability to shut teams out. The principal risk is that Stuttgart’s superior possession and shot volume finally translate into a dominant home performance, but the value lies firmly with the visitors and the draw.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: Common Questions
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
The model gives Stuttgart a 37% chance to win, Werder Bremen a 33% chance, and the draw 30%. The market strongly favours Stuttgart, but the data suggests a much more open contest, with significant value on the away and draw outcomes.
Will both teams score in Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
There’s a 69% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides showing high BTTS rates in recent games and neither keeping a clean sheet in their last five league matches.
Is there value in backing Werder Bremen at the current odds?
Yes—the model’s 33% away win probability is much higher than the 19% implied by odds of 5.25, making Bremen the standout value play in the 1x2 market.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.