Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
Werder Bremen
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 2
Borussia Dortmund
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 3.25(+13% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Dortmund Power Past Bremen with Late Surge at Weserstadion
Borussia Dortmund secured a crucial 2-0 away victory over Werder Bremen at the Weserstadion, courtesy of a second-half breakthrough and a stoppage-time clincher. In a match that saw Dortmund gradually assert their dominance, the visitors were made to work hard by a disciplined Bremen side, who matched them for possession and kept the contest finely balanced until the hour mark. After a goalless first half, Dortmund’s persistence paid off in the 59th minute, breaking the deadlock and shifting momentum firmly in their favor. Bremen responded with attacking substitutions and pressed for an equalizer, but Dortmund’s defensive solidity and clinical finishing were decisive. A late goal in the 90th minute sealed the win for the visitors, who finished with more shots on target (9 to Bremen’s 3) and demonstrated their attacking superiority.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
59' — Goal
Serhou Guirassy breaks the deadlock for Dortmund, finishing off a well-worked move.
90' — Goal
Dortmund seal the victory with a late second goal, ending Bremen’s hopes of a comeback.
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen started brightly and matched Dortmund in possession (51%), showing good tactical discipline in their 4-1-4-1 setup. The midfield, anchored by Senne Lynen, worked hard to disrupt Dortmund’s rhythm, while the defense held firm for much of the contest. However, Bremen struggled to create clear chances, managing just 3 shots on target from 9 attempts. Despite a spirited effort, Bremen’s lack of cutting edge in the final third ultimately cost them. The late push after falling behind was met with resolute Dortmund defending, and the hosts were unable to find a way back into the match.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund delivered a professional away performance, growing into the match and eventually overpowering Bremen. Their 3-4-2-1 formation allowed for fluid attacking combinations, and they generated 17 shots, 9 of which were on target. The midfield duo of Felix Nmecha and Jobe Bellingham controlled the tempo, while Serhou Guirassy led the line with purpose. Dortmund’s patience was rewarded with a breakthrough on 59 minutes, and they managed the game effectively thereafter, capping their display with a second goal at the death. Defensively, they limited Bremen’s threat and committed just 5 fouls, highlighting their composure under pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Werder Bremen lined up in a 4-1-4-1, prioritizing midfield solidity and defensive shape. They pressed Dortmund in phases and looked to transition quickly, but lacked the creativity to break down the visitors’ back three. Bremen’s structure frustrated Dortmund for much of the first half, but their inability to create clear-cut chances was evident. Dortmund’s 3-4-2-1 provided width through Ryerson and Svensson, while Nmecha and Bellingham orchestrated play centrally. After the break, Dortmund increased their tempo and attacking intent, eventually finding space between the lines. Their tactical flexibility and superior attacking options made the difference, especially as Bremen pushed forward late and left gaps at the back.
Turning Point
Guirassy’s opener in the 59th minute shifted the momentum decisively in Dortmund’s favor and forced Bremen to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Serhou Guirassy
Scored the crucial opening goal and led the line with authority, setting the tone for Dortmund’s victory.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 0-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 3.25
Model probability for BTTS (yes) is 44%, higher than the implied probability from the odds (31%). Bremen have scored in 4 of their last 5, and Dortmund's away defence is not impenetrable. Value is present despite Bremen's underdog status.
Read more ↓
Correct Score: 1–2
Most likely correct score based on the form, attack/defence splits, and H2H trends. Dortmund are expected to win but Bremen can score.
Match Result: Borussia Dortmund Win@ 1.44
Dortmund are strong away, in far better form, and have a dominant H2H record. Model probability (64%) is slightly above the odds-implied (69%), so value is marginal but outcome is likely.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Werder Bremen, struggling near the relegation zone, face a high-flying Borussia Dortmund side still fighting at the top end of the Bundesliga. Bremen's recent form is poor, with two straight losses and a leaky defence, while Dortmund have bounced back with a win after some patchy results. The visitors' away record and superior attacking output make them clear favourites, but Bremen's ability to score at home and Dortmund's occasional defensive lapses suggest the hosts could get on the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Dortmund have won 7 of the last 10 H2H meetings
Attack
- →Dortmund's away record (8W, 5D, 3L) and 2.06 goals scored per game overall
Defence
- →Bremen's defensive frailty: 1.76 goals conceded per game, only 18% clean sheets
Injuries & Team News
- →Bremen missing several defensive players due to injury/suspension
Match Context
- →Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55-58% of both teams' matches
🚩 Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Werder Bremen and 4.2 for Borussia Dortmund, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Werder Bremenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Borussia Dortmundlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Werder Bremen come into this match on a two-game losing streak and have won just once in their last five, conceding 9 goals in that span. Dortmund, while not at their absolute best, have won three of their last five and recently beat Frankfurt 3-2, showing their attacking threat remains strong despite occasional lapses.
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
The head-to-head record is heavily in Dortmund's favour, with seven wins in the last ten encounters and only one Bremen victory. Scorelines often favour Dortmund by one or two goals, and Bremen have failed to score in four of those matches, underlining the visitors' historical dominance.
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Werder Bremen wins
2
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
The biggest value edge is on 'Both Teams to Score: Yes,' with the model rating it at 44% versus odds-implied 31%. While Dortmund are deserved favourites, the away win odds offer only marginal value. The correct score 1-2 is also a plausible longshot given the goal patterns and team strengths.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
- ⚠️Bremen's injuries and suspensions may force an unfamiliar defensive lineup
- ⚠️Dortmund's recent away performances have been inconsistent
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent Dortmund games reduces confidence in defensive metrics
- ⚠️Final round of the season: possible rotation or motivation swings
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.