West Ham vs Derby Predictions
Championship · England
West Ham
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Derby
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
West Ham vs Derby: Match Preview
Both West Ham and Derby enter this fixture with identical league records—one point from two matches and a -1 goal difference—leaving both in the lower half of the early Championship table. West Ham's recent form is slightly more encouraging, with a thumping 4-1 cup win at Southampton and no failures to score in their last five across all competitions, while Derby remain winless in their last five competitive outings.
The statistical matchup leans towards goals. West Ham are averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last five, with every match featuring both teams scoring. Derby's defensive frailty is evident, with 1.6 goals conceded per game in the same span and no clean sheets. Both sides have seen 100% of their league matches go over 2.5 goals, and West Ham's shot volumes—13.2 total and 5.4 on target per match—suggest they will test Derby's back line. First-half goals are common for both, with West Ham netting five and Derby four before the break in their last five.
Given these rates, the model expects a match where neither defence holds out for long. West Ham's home attack should generate enough to edge the contest, but Derby's ability to find the net—especially early—keeps the draw and BTTS probabilities high. The likeliest outcome is a 2-1 home win, but with both teams' defensive records, a high-scoring draw is not far behind.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
West Ham vs Derby Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind West Ham vs Derby that most previews miss.
- 1All four combined league matches for these sides have finished with over 2.5 goals.
- 2West Ham have scored in every match across their last five, but have not kept a single clean sheet.
- 3Derby have scored four of their last five goals in the first half, but just one after the break.
Who do you think wins: West Ham vs Derby?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: West Ham vs Derby(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have seen 100% of their league matches go over 2.5 goals so far, with West Ham averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game in their last five, and Derby conceding 1.6 per match in the same span.
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BTTS: Yes
West Ham have seen BTTS in all of their last five, while Derby have seen it in four of the last five, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in the league yet.
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More Championship Predictions
The Case For This West Ham vs Derby Prediction
The statistical profile points to a relatively open contest between two sides still searching for defensive solidity. West Ham's attacking production at home, coupled with Derby's leaky away record, tips the edge slightly towards the hosts, but both sides' concession rates suggest goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →West Ham have averaged 13.2 shots and 5.4 shots on target per match in their last five.
Defence
- →Both teams have conceded at least two goals in both league matches so far.
- →Derby have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding 1.6 goals per game.
🚩 West Ham vs Derby Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for West Ham and 4.8 for Derby, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How West Ham and Derby Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
West Ham vs Derby Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
West Hamlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Derbylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
West Ham have found the net in every one of their last five matches, including a 4-1 cup win at Southampton, but defensive lapses have left them with just one point from two league games. Derby's struggles are more pronounced, winless in their last five and conceding at least once in each, with a particularly soft second half in recent matches.
West Ham vs Derby — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: West Ham vs Derby
West Ham have had the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning two of the last three, including a 3-1 home victory in their most recent Championship meeting. Both sides have found the net in two of those three games, suggesting a tendency for open contests between them.
West Ham vs Derby Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
2
West Ham wins
0
Draws
1
Derby wins
Things to Watch: West Ham vs Derby
- ⚠️Small sample size for league form (only two Championship matches played each).
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Recent lineups and tactical setups may shift with the early season context.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
West Ham 2–1 DerbyThe model projects a 2-1 win for West Ham, driven by their superior attacking shot output (13.2 shots and 5.4 on target per match in the last five) and Derby's ongoing defensive issues. The biggest risk to this call is the volatility of early-season form, with both sides yet to settle defensively and a high draw probability if neither can assert control.
West Ham vs Derby: Common Questions
Who will win West Ham vs Derby?
West Ham are modelled with a 44% chance of victory, Derby at 24%, and the draw at 32%. Both teams have identical league records, but West Ham's attacking numbers and home advantage tip the balance slightly in their favour.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Derby?
There is a 63% probability of both teams scoring, with West Ham and Derby each seeing BTTS in most of their recent matches and neither side keeping a clean sheet in the league so far.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in West Ham vs Derby?
The model gives a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, based on both teams' 100% over 2.5 rate in the league and their combined average of 3.5 total goals per Championship match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for West Ham vs Derby: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.