Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Willem II
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
PEC Zwolle
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.75(+9% edge)
Match Result
7.1/10Early Goals Shared as Willem II and PEC Zwolle Settle for Draw in Tilburg
Willem II and PEC Zwolle played out a lively 1-1 draw at the Koning Willem II Stadion, with all the action packed into the opening minutes. The visitors stunned the home crowd by taking the lead in just the 2nd minute, but Willem II responded instantly, leveling the score a minute later. Despite both sides creating chances throughout, neither could find a decisive breakthrough, and the points were shared. PEC Zwolle controlled much of the possession (58%) and racked up 14 shots, but only managed to test the keeper twice. Willem II, meanwhile, were more efficient with their opportunities, hitting the target five times from 13 attempts. The match was high on intensity but low on disciplinary issues, with just one yellow card shown all evening.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
2' — Goal
S. van Hooijdonk scores for PEC Zwolle, giving the visitors an early lead.
3' — Goal
D. Haen responds instantly for Willem II, leveling the match just a minute later.
45' — Yellow Card
Willem II receive the only yellow card of the match, reflecting the game's competitive edge.
Willem II
Willem II showed great character to bounce back immediately after conceding, demonstrating sharp attacking intent early on. Although they saw less of the ball (42% possession), they made their chances count, registering five shots on target from 13 attempts. The midfield worked hard to disrupt Zwolle's rhythm, and the defense held firm after the early setback. However, the hosts struggled to assert control in midfield for long spells and were often forced to play on the counter. Their ability to respond quickly after conceding was a highlight, but a lack of sustained attacking threat in the second half limited their chances of taking all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle started the match brightly, capitalizing on their early momentum to take the lead in just the 2nd minute. Their dominance in possession (58%) and high number of corners (7) reflected their intent to dictate play. However, despite firing 14 shots, they were wasteful in front of goal, hitting the target only twice. The midfield trio moved the ball well and helped Zwolle control the tempo, but a lack of clinical finishing meant their early advantage was short-lived. Defensively, they limited Willem II's opportunities after the frantic opening but couldn't convert their territorial dominance into a winning goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, leading to a midfield battle that saw PEC Zwolle enjoy more possession and dictate the tempo. Zwolle's double pivot allowed them to recycle possession and push their full-backs forward, resulting in a high number of corners and territorial dominance. Willem II, on the other hand, relied on quick transitions and direct play, especially after their early equalizer. The match settled into a pattern where Zwolle probed patiently but lacked penetration, while Willem II looked to exploit spaces on the counter. Despite the attacking intent from both sides, defensive organization prevailed, with both back lines adapting well after the frenetic start. Substitutions and tactical tweaks in the second half could not break the deadlock, as both teams ultimately cancelled each other out.
Turning Point
The rapid exchange of goals in the opening three minutes set the tone and ultimately defined the match, with neither side able to seize full control thereafter.
Man of the Match
D. Haen
His immediate equalizer and lively forward play gave Willem II a crucial foothold in the match.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: Match Preview
Willem II enter this fixture rooted to the foot of the Eredivisie, winless after 10 matches and coming off a heavy 1-6 home defeat to Cambuur. Their only respite was a narrow 4-3 cup win over Helmond Sport, but league form remains dire: eight losses, two draws, and a league-worst 32 goals conceded. PEC Zwolle, while 15th, have shown some resilience away from home (1 win, 2 draws from 5) and recently held Utrecht to a 1-1 draw, but have also suffered heavy defeats this season.
Statistically, this is a meeting of two of the league's weakest defences. Willem II have shipped 16 goals in just five home games (3.2 per game), while Zwolle have conceded 9 in 5 away. Both sides are averaging over 12 shots per game in their last five, with Zwolle producing more shots on target (5.4 per game) and both teams failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five league matches. The over 2.5 goals rate is 80% for Willem II and 60% for Zwolle, and both teams to score has landed in 4 of Willem II's last 5.
Given the defensive profiles and high shot volumes, the model expects a match with multiple goals, particularly in the second half where both teams have been most vulnerable. Zwolle's slightly stronger away numbers and ability to generate chances suggest they edge this, but the draw remains a strong possibility given both teams' inability to see out matches.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 2.00
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Willem II vs PEC Zwolle that most previews miss.
- 1Willem II's home matches have averaged 4.0 goals per game, with 80% finishing over 2.5 goals.
- 2PEC Zwolle have kept just 1 clean sheet in 10 league matches, conceding 2.3 per game overall.
- 3Across the last 10 H2H meetings, only 2 produced more than three goals, contrasting with both teams' current defensive form.
Who do you think wins: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.73
The model gives a 29% probability for the draw, higher than the 26.7% implied by the odds, and both sides have a combined 5 draws in their last 20 league matches, with recent H2Hs producing 3 draws in the last 10.
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The Case For This Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Prediction
Willem II are bottom of the Eredivisie with 2 points from 10 matches and a goal difference of -22, conceding 3.2 per game. PEC Zwolle have only fared marginally better, sitting 15th with 8 points and a -12 goal difference, but their away record (1W, 2D, 2L) and defensive numbers are notably stronger than Willem II's home form. The statistical profile points to a high-probability goal environment, driven by Willem II's 80% over 2.5 rate and PEC Zwolle conceding 2.3 per game. The matchup is defined by Willem II's defensive frailty (16 conceded in 5 home games) against a Zwolle attack averaging 1.1 goals per game but creating 13 shots and 5.4 on target per match in their last five. Conversely, Willem II have scored just 4 in 5 at home, but both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league outings. Both sides show a tendency to concede heavily in the second half, with Willem II and Zwolle combining for 9 second-half goals in their last 10 respective matches. With neither team able to keep opponents out and both trending towards high shot volumes and frequent BTTS outcomes (Willem II 4/5, Zwolle 3/5), the model expects a match where defensive errors and set pieces could be decisive. Zwolle's marginally superior away record and shot suppression tilt the balance, but the draw is also live given both sides' inability to close out games.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →PEC Zwolle have scored in 3 of their last 5 away games and average 13 shots per match recently.
Defence
- →Willem II have conceded 16 goals in 5 home matches (3.2 per game, worst in the league).
- →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 league matches.
🚩 Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Willem II and 4.8 for PEC Zwolle, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How Willem II and PEC Zwolle Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Willem IIlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
PEC Zwollelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Willem II have lost four of their last five league matches and are without a win in 10 Eredivisie games, conceding 16 goals in their last five. PEC Zwolle's recent form is mixed, with a win and a draw in their last three, but they have also lost twice and conceded 23 goals in 10 matches.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 4.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
What History Says: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle have a slight edge in the head-to-head, winning 4 of the last 10 meetings, including their last visit to Tilburg (2-1). Draws are not uncommon, with three stalemates in the last 10, and most meetings have been relatively low-scoring compared to the teams' current defensive records.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Willem II wins
4
Draws
4
PEC Zwolle wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
The model identifies the draw at 3.75 as the best value, with a model probability of 29% versus an implied 26.7%. There is no value on the home win, and the under 2.5 goals market is slightly overpriced relative to the model, but not enough to recommend. The away win is correctly priced given the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
- ⚠️Willem II's recent cup win (4-3) came against lower-tier opposition and may not reflect league form.
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive numbers are poor, but small-sample volatility in recent matches could skew the true goal expectation.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not available at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Willem II 1–2 PEC ZwolleThe model projects a 2-1 away win for PEC Zwolle, primarily on the basis of Willem II's league-worst defensive record (3.2 conceded per match) and Zwolle's higher shot output. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if both attacks fail to capitalise on defensive errors, leading to a lower-scoring draw.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: Common Questions
Who will win Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle are favoured with a 50% win probability, compared to 21% for Willem II and 29% for the draw. The edge comes from Zwolle's stronger away defensive numbers and Willem II's struggles at home.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
The model gives a 68% probability for over 2.5 goals, driven by Willem II's 80% over 2.5 rate and both teams conceding heavily this season.
Is both teams to score likely in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Both teams to score is rated at 61%, with Willem II seeing BTTS in 4 of their last 5 and Zwolle in 3 of 5, plus neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five league games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.