Worthing vs Boreham Wood Predictions
National League · England
Worthing
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Boreham Wood
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Boreham Wood Win
Match Result
8.2/10Boreham Wood Stun Worthing with Late Comeback in Five-Goal Thriller
Boreham Wood produced a dramatic late turnaround to snatch a 3-2 victory over Worthing at the Sussex Transport Community Stadium. The hosts looked set for a memorable win after taking the lead in the 22nd minute and holding firm until the hour mark, but a flurry of late goals saw the visitors overturn the deficit in spectacular fashion. Worthing struck first and seemed in control for much of the match, but Boreham Wood's persistence paid off with three goals in a devastating 24-minute spell in the second half. Despite a last-gasp effort from Worthing in the 90th minute, the visitors held on to claim all three points in a pulsating National League encounter.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results3/3 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
Worthing take the lead with an early strike, energizing the home crowd.
62' — Goal
Boreham Wood equalize, swinging momentum in their favor.
81' — Goal
Boreham Wood go ahead with a second goal, turning the match on its head.
86' — Goal
Boreham Wood extend their lead, seemingly putting the game beyond reach.
90' — Goal
Worthing pull one back in stoppage time, but it's not enough to salvage a point.
Worthing
Worthing started brightly, capitalizing on early momentum to take the lead in the 22nd minute. For much of the match, they managed to keep Boreham Wood at bay, defending resolutely and looking dangerous on the break. However, as the second half wore on, Worthing struggled to maintain their composure under increasing pressure, conceding three times between the 62nd and 86th minutes. A late goal in the 90th minute gave the home fans hope of a dramatic equalizer, but it proved too little, too late. Despite flashes of attacking quality, Worthing's inability to manage the game in the closing stages ultimately cost them.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood showed impressive character and tactical discipline, coming from behind to secure a remarkable away win. After a subdued first half, they grew into the game and began to assert themselves after the break. The equalizer in the 62nd minute sparked a surge in confidence, and Boreham Wood capitalized by scoring twice more in quick succession (81', 86') to seize control. Though they conceded late, Boreham Wood managed the final minutes well to see out the victory. Their late-game ruthlessness and resilience underlined their credentials as serious contenders in the National League.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both lineups and formations unavailable, the tactical nuances were defined by the match's shifting momentum. Worthing's early goal suggested an attacking setup, pressing high and exploiting Boreham Wood's initial hesitancy. However, as the game progressed, Boreham Wood adapted, likely pushing more men forward and increasing their intensity after halftime. The visitors' ability to score three times in the final half-hour points to effective tactical adjustments—possibly a switch to a more aggressive formation or the introduction of attacking substitutes. Worthing, meanwhile, appeared to sit deeper as they tried to protect their lead, a strategy that ultimately backfired as Boreham Wood found space and exploited defensive gaps late on.
Turning Point
Boreham Wood's equalizer in the 62nd minute shifted the momentum decisively, paving the way for their late surge.
Man of the Match
Boreham Wood Goal Scorer (86')
Scored the crucial third goal that proved decisive in securing the comeback victory.
Worthing vs Boreham Wood: Match Preview
Worthing enter this fixture sitting 9th after three matches, with a mixed home record (one win, one loss) and a modest +1 goal difference. Boreham Wood, meanwhile, are up in 4th, unbeaten and boasting a +5 goal difference, having scored nine times in three league outings. Both sides have started the campaign brightly, but Boreham Wood's three-match unbeaten run and perfect away record (6 goals for, 1 against) set a high bar.
The statistical matchup is defined by Boreham Wood's attacking output—averaging 3.0 goals scored per league game—and Worthing's tendency to concede at home (2 goals allowed in 2 home games). Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches, with Worthing seeing 66.7% of their games go over 2.5 goals and Boreham Wood hitting that mark in all three of theirs. First-half goals are a theme for Boreham Wood, with nine in their last five matches before the break, suggesting early action is likely.
The model expects Boreham Wood's away attack to be the decisive factor, projecting a 2-1 away win. Worthing's home advantage and positive H2H record keep the draw in play, but the underlying rates—especially Boreham Wood's away scoring and Worthing's home defensive record—point to the visitors having the upper hand in a match with good chances at both ends.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Worthing vs Boreham Wood Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Worthing vs Boreham Wood that most previews miss.
- 1Boreham Wood have scored first in four of their last five matches, with nine first-half goals in that span.
- 2Worthing's home matches average just 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per game so far in the league.
- 3BTTS has landed in 70% of the combined league matches for these two sides this season.
Who do you think wins: Worthing vs Boreham Wood?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Worthing vs Boreham Wood(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Boreham Wood Win
Boreham Wood have averaged 3 goals per game across their opening three league matches and have won both away fixtures (6 scored, 1 conceded), while Worthing's home record stands at 1 win and 1 loss with only 2 goals scored.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen high scoring rates early in the season: Worthing's matches are 66.7% over 2.5 goals, Boreham Wood's 100%, and both sides have failed to score in none of their last five competitive matches.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3 of Worthing's last 5 and 4 of Boreham Wood's last 5, with both teams averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game and neither keeping more than one clean sheet in their last five.
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More National League Predictions
The Case For This Worthing vs Boreham Wood Prediction
The statistical profile points to a high-tempo, open contest between Worthing and a Boreham Wood side that has started the season with a prolific attack and strong away form. Worthing's home numbers are solid but not exceptional, while Boreham Wood's away scoring rate and overall goal difference suggest they have the edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Boreham Wood average 3.0 goals scored per league game and have scored 6 in 2 away matches.
Defence
- →Worthing have failed to keep a clean sheet in either of their two home league games.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in at least two-thirds of their league matches this season.
How Worthing and Boreham Wood Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Worthing vs Boreham Wood Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Worthinglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Boreham Woodlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Worthing's recent form is mixed, with two wins and two losses in their last four competitive matches, and a home league record of one win and one defeat. Boreham Wood are unbeaten in their last five, including three straight wins and a perfect away league start, scoring three in each of their last two away games.
Worthing vs Boreham Wood — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Worthing vs Boreham Wood
Worthing have won both previous meetings with Boreham Wood, each by a 2-1 scoreline, but both encounters were in a lower division and over a year ago. The historical edge is with Worthing, but the current season's form and squad changes make those results less predictive.
Worthing vs Boreham Wood Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
2
Worthing wins
0
Draws
1
Boreham Wood wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Worthing vs Boreham Wood
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value assessment is based solely on model probabilities. The largest statistical edge is on Boreham Wood to win away and on over 2.5 goals, both supported by strong underlying rates. If odds become available above 2.25 for the away win or 1.70 for over 2.5, these would represent positive expected value based on the model's estimates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Worthing vs Boreham Wood
- ⚠️Early-season data is based on a small sample size (3 league matches each); scoring rates may regress.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for value calculation; recommended bets are probability-driven only.
- ⚠️No detailed shot or set piece data available; model relies on goals and results rates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Worthing 1–2 Boreham WoodThe model's final call is a 2-1 away win for Boreham Wood, driven by their 3.0 goals-per-game average and perfect away record. The biggest risk to this prediction is Worthing's 100% H2H record in this matchup, but the current attacking rates and away form for Boreham Wood outweigh that small-sample trend.
Worthing vs Boreham Wood: Common Questions
Who will win Worthing vs Boreham Wood?
Boreham Wood are given a 45% probability to win away, compared to 27% for Worthing and 28% for the draw. This edge comes from Boreham Wood's strong away form (two wins from two, six goals scored) and higher scoring rates.
Will both teams score in Worthing vs Boreham Wood?
There's a 61% probability of both teams scoring, with BTTS landing in 3 of Worthing's last 5 and 4 of Boreham Wood's last 5 matches. Neither side has failed to score in their last five outings.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Worthing vs Boreham Wood?
The model assigns a 62% probability to over 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' high early-season scoring rates (Worthing 1.67, Boreham Wood 3.0 goals per game) and a combined 83% over 2.5 rate in league matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Worthing vs Boreham Wood: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.