Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Predictions
Premier League · Egypt
Zamalek SC
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Al Ahly
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 1.7(+22% edge)
Match Result
7/10Al Ahly Outclass Zamalek in Cairo Derby with Clinical 2-0 Triumph
Al Ahly asserted their dominance in the Cairo Derby, securing a composed 2-0 victory over Zamalek SC at the Cairo International Stadium. Despite a closely contested first half, Al Ahly broke the deadlock in the 39th minute and never looked back, adding a second late on to seal the result. Zamalek struggled to convert their possession advantage into meaningful chances, managing just two shots on target from eight attempts, while Al Ahly’s incisiveness in attack and disciplined defensive structure made the difference. The visitors’ superior attacking threat was evident throughout, as they registered 14 shots with three on target and matched Zamalek’s five corners. Zamalek, meanwhile, found it difficult to break down Al Ahly’s organized back line and were limited to speculative efforts. The match turned on key moments of quality from Al Ahly, who capitalized on their opportunities to claim a deserved derby victory.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
39' — Goal
Al Ahly open the scoring with a well-worked move, breaking Zamalek’s resistance.
80' — Goal
Al Ahly double their lead, capitalizing on a stretched Zamalek defense.
67' — Yellow Card
Zamalek’s Ahmed Rabie is booked for a late challenge, reflecting mounting frustration.
Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC started brightly, enjoying a slight edge in possession (51%) and showing early intent with their 4-2-3-1 setup. However, their attacking play lacked penetration, as they mustered only two shots on target from eight attempts. The midfield trio worked hard to control the tempo, but the final ball was often missing, and Chico Banza found himself isolated up front. Defensively, Zamalek held firm for much of the first half but were undone by a moment of quality before the break. Chasing the game, they pushed numbers forward but remained vulnerable to Al Ahly’s counterattacks, eventually conceding a second. Discipline was generally good, with just one yellow card shown, but the lack of cutting edge proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al Ahly
Al Ahly delivered a tactically astute performance, balancing defensive solidity with clinical attacking play. Their 4-2-3-1 mirrored Zamalek’s, but Al Ahly’s midfielders pressed intelligently and transitioned quickly, resulting in 14 shots and three on target. The breakthrough just before halftime shifted momentum decisively in their favor. After taking the lead, Al Ahly managed the game expertly, absorbing pressure and striking again in the 80th minute to put the contest beyond doubt. The back four, marshaled by Mohamed Hany and Yassin Marei, kept Zamalek’s attack at bay, while the midfield duo of Marwan Attia and Akram Tawfik controlled the central areas.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, leading to a congested midfield battle. Zamalek sought to dictate play with short passes and patient buildup, but Al Ahly’s pressing forced turnovers and stifled creative outlets. Al Ahly’s tactical discipline was evident as they sat compact out of possession and broke forward with pace, particularly exploiting the flanks and half-spaces. Set pieces were evenly matched, with each side earning five corners, but Al Ahly’s superior movement and decision-making in open play proved decisive. Substitutions in the second half saw Zamalek push for an equalizer, but this only opened up space for Al Ahly to exploit on the counter, leading to the second goal.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 39th minute shifted momentum firmly in Al Ahly’s favor, forcing Zamalek to chase the game and leaving them exposed at the back.
Man of the Match
S. Benjdida
Scored a crucial goal and led the line with tireless movement, troubling Zamalek’s defense throughout.
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly: Match Preview
Zamalek and Al Ahly both arrive in the Derby with momentum to burn, each unbeaten after five league matches and sitting joint-second in the table. Zamalek's current streak is the most eye-catching: five straight wins in all competitions, including a 4-0 Champions League rout and three league clean sheets, have them playing with a steely confidence. Al Ahly, for their part, have dropped just two points all season and come off a commanding 2-0 win, with their attacking output consistently among the league's best.
The tactical battle will likely hinge on Zamalek's defensive discipline against Al Ahly's shot-heavy approach. Zamalek have conceded just 0.4 goals per game in their last five and have not failed to score in that span, but their matches tend to be tight, with late goals a recurring theme. Al Ahly's 16.8 shots and 7.2 corners per match in the last five suggest they'll push the tempo, yet their away scoring (three goals in two games) is less explosive. Both sides have shown a tendency to keep things cagey early—Zamalek have conceded only once before half-time in their last five, and Al Ahly have scored just three first-half goals in that period.
Given the form lines and the recent H2H trend of low-scoring, closely fought matches, the model expects a tactical stalemate. Both sides will be wary of surrendering their unbeaten records, and with defences on top and set pieces likely to play a key role, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable outcome unless late drama tips the balance.
How Zamalek SC and Al Ahly Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Zamalek SClast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al Ahlylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Zamalek are riding a wave of momentum, having won their last five matches in all competitions and conceding just a single goal in that stretch. Al Ahly have also been impressive, with four wins and a draw in their last five, and their only dropped points coming away at El Mokawloon. Both sides are unbeaten this season, but Zamalek's defensive numbers and late-goal prowess give them a slight form edge.
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly that most previews miss.
- 1Zamalek have scored five of their last nine goals after the 80th minute, highlighting their late-game threat.
- 2Al Ahly's last five matches have averaged 7.2 corners per game, with at least seven in every outing.
- 3Four of the last ten Cairo Derby meetings have ended in draws, including two goalless affairs.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
34%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Prediction
Momentum is the defining feature of this Cairo Derby: Zamalek have rattled off five straight wins in all competitions, conceding just once in that span, while Al Ahly have matched their rivals stride for stride with four wins and a draw in their last five. Both sides sit on 13 points, trailing only Pyramids FC, and neither has tasted defeat this season, adding an extra layer of tension to a fixture that rarely disappoints. Statistically, Zamalek's defensive record stands out—three clean sheets in their last five and just 0.4 goals conceded on average. Al Ahly, meanwhile, have generated more attacking volume (16.8 shots, 6.2 on target per match in the last five), but their away scoring is more modest (three goals in two away games). Both teams have failed to score just once between them in the last ten combined, but their recent matches have been dominated by late goals—Zamalek have scored five of their last nine after the 80th minute, while Al Ahly have netted in the 90th minute in three of their last five. The model expects a cagey, tactical contest in which neither side risks their unbeaten start. Zamalek's current run is built on defensive discipline and late breakthroughs, while Al Ahly's attacking intent is balanced by a pragmatic approach away from home. With both teams in peak form and the table finely poised, a low-scoring draw is the likeliest outcome unless one side capitalises on a set piece or late counter.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Al Ahly have averaged 16.8 shots and 6.2 on target per match over their last five, but only three away goals in two games.
Defence
- →Zamalek have won five straight in all competitions, conceding just one goal in that run.
- →Both teams have kept three clean sheets in their last five and are unbeaten this season.
Where the Model Sees Value: Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.2
Both sides arrive unbeaten in five and have shown defensive solidity (Zamalek 0.4, Al Ahly 0.6 goals conceded per last 5), with recent H2Hs producing four draws in the last ten. With neither side conceding momentum and both averaging under 2 goals conceded combined per game, the draw is a strong value play.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.7
Both teams have kept three clean sheets in their last five, and only 40% (Zamalek) and 20% (Al Ahly) of their league matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season. The recent form and defensive numbers point to a tight, low-scoring affair.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
🚩 Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Zamalek SC and 5.6 for Al Ahly, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
What History Says: Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly
Al Ahly have won four of the last ten Cairo Derby meetings, including a commanding 3-0 away win in the most recent clash. However, four of those ten have ended in draws, with two goalless, reflecting the fixture's tendency to tighten up when stakes are high. Zamalek's last home win in the Derby was a 3-0 in March 2025, but recent history suggests margins are always fine.
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Zamalek SC wins
4
Draws
4
Al Ahly wins
Things to Watch: Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds were available for most markets; estimated value edges use plausible odds.
- ⚠️Absence of injury news could mask late fitness issues.
- ⚠️CAF Champions League fixtures may introduce rotation risk not visible in current data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Zamalek SC 1–1 Al AhlyThis Derby looks set to be defined by defensive resilience and recent momentum—Zamalek's five-match winning streak and 0.4 goals conceded per game underpin the 1-1 prediction. The strongest single data point is both sides' run of clean sheets and unbeaten starts, making a draw the most plausible result. The main risk is a late goal from either side—both have a habit of scoring in the final ten minutes—which could tip the balance unexpectedly.
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly: Common Questions
Who will win Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly?
The model gives Zamalek a 36% chance of victory, Al Ahly a 28% chance, and the draw a 36% probability. Both sides are unbeaten and in strong form, so a stalemate is the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Zamalek vs Al Ahly?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with 'no' slightly favoured at 52%. Both sides have kept three clean sheets in their last five, but neither has failed to score in that span.
Can Zamalek's winning streak continue against Al Ahly?
Zamalek have won five straight, conceding only once, but face an Al Ahly side unbeaten in five and historically strong in this fixture. The model rates Zamalek's win probability at 36%, so extending the streak will be a challenge.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.