Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Predictions
League Two · England
Accrington ST
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Crawley Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town: Match Preview
Accrington Stanley enter this fixture 19th in League Two, having taken just a single point from their opening two matches. Their home opener finished 2-2 against Colchester, but they followed up with a 2-0 defeat at Exeter, extending a winless run that stretches back through pre-season. Crawley Town sit four places higher with three points, having bounced back from a home defeat to Crewe by winning 2-1 at Rochdale, and their away form already looks more promising than last year's struggles.
Statistically, this is a meeting of two sides with almost identical attacking output: both average 1.0 goals scored per league game so far, with Accrington conceding twice as many as they score and Crawley breaking even. The last five matches for each side show low shot volumes (Accrington 10.0, Crawley 7.6 per game) and limited set-piece threat (3.2 and 2.2 corners per game respectively). Neither side has kept a league clean sheet yet, and both have failed to score in two of their last five overall. The H2H record is balanced, with three draws in the last ten and the last two meetings both finishing level.
Given the evenness of the underlying rates and the lack of a clear attacking or defensive outlier, the model expects a low-scoring, cagey contest. The draw is marginally favoured, with a 1-1 scoreline the single most likely outcome. With both teams struggling to create high-quality chances and a history of stalemates between them, under 2.5 goals is also rated as the most probable goal market outcome.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Accrington ST vs Crawley Town that most previews miss.
- 1Accrington and Crawley have each averaged exactly 1.0 goals scored per league game this season, with Accrington conceding 2.0 and Crawley 1.0 per match.
- 2Only two of the last ten head-to-head meetings have produced more than three goals, and three of the last four have ended in draws.
- 3Both teams have averaged fewer than 3.5 shots on target per game over their last five matches, indicating limited attacking sharpness.
Who do you think wins: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average exactly 1.0 goals scored per game this league season, and the most common H2H result in the last decade is a draw, including two 1-1s and a 3-3 in the last three meetings.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 50% of their league matches so far, and their combined last-5 average is just 1.6 goals scored per game.
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Double Chance: Draw Or Crawley Town
Accrington have failed to win in their last six competitive matches, while Crawley have picked up an away win already this season and edge the H2H record.
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More League Two Predictions
The Case For This Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Prediction
A statistical deadlock is forecast at The Wham Stadium, with both Accrington and Crawley Town averaging just one goal scored per league game and neither side showing a clear edge in underlying shot or defensive rates. The model expects a low-event contest, with the draw and under 2.5 goals both the most probable outcomes.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 (Accrington) / 1.0 (Crawley) conceded per league game.
- →Accrington have not kept a clean sheet in their last six competitive matches.
Match Context
- →Crawley have won four of the last ten head-to-head meetings, with three draws.
🚩 Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Accrington ST and 3.7 for Crawley Town, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Accrington ST and Crawley Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Accrington STlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Crawley Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Accrington have started the league campaign slowly, drawing 2-2 at home before losing 2-0 away, and have not won in their last six competitive fixtures. Crawley Town arrive with a recent away win at Rochdale but also suffered a home defeat to Crewe, reflecting inconsistent early-season form. Neither side has established momentum, and both have struggled to generate sustained attacking pressure.
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town — Last 2 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town
The last two meetings between Accrington and Crawley Town have ended in draws, including a 3-3 result at this venue in April. Crawley have the slight historical edge with four wins to Accrington's three in the last ten, but the fixture is notable for its balance—three draws in that span and only two matches with more than three goals.
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Accrington ST wins
3
Draws
4
Crawley Town wins
Things to Watch: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town
- ⚠️Early season data means all per-game rates are based on just two league matches per side.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies and cup matches may not reflect true league strength or tactical intent.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Accrington ST 1–1 Crawley TownThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both sides' matching scoring rates and a long-term H2H pattern of stalemates. The single strongest data point is the identical 1.0 goals per game for and against in the league so far. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if either side capitalises on defensive lapses early, as both have shown a tendency to concede first-half goals.
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town: Common Questions
Who will win Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
The model gives Accrington a 33% chance to win, Crawley Town a 29% chance, and the draw is most likely at 38%. Both teams have averaged just one goal scored per league match, and the last two head-to-heads have ended level.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Both teams to score is rated at 46%, with 'No' slightly more likely at 54%. Both sides have failed to score in two of their last five matches, and neither has kept a clean sheet in the league so far.
How many goals will there be in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59% probability. Both teams average just 1.0 goal scored per league game, and only half of their league matches so far have gone over 2.5 goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.