Gillingham vs Newport County Predictions
League Two · England
Gillingham
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Newport County
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Gillingham vs Newport County
Gillingham vs Newport County: Match Preview
Gillingham arrive in strong form, sitting 4th in the table after a run of three wins and a draw in their last four league matches. Their attack has found rhythm, netting 11 goals in the last five outings, and they have not failed to score in any of those games. Newport County, by contrast, are 19th and have struggled for wins, particularly away from home, where they have yet to claim three points this season.
The statistical matchup is defined by Gillingham's improving attack (2.2 goals per game last five) against a Newport defence that concedes 2.0 goals per away match. Newport's own attack has been less effective on the road, averaging just 1.0 per away game, and their shot output is inconsistent. Gillingham's matches have a moderate goal profile (season over 2.5 goals in 43%), but Newport's are higher (57%), making over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome. Cards and corners are both near league averages, with no major outlier trends.
The model expects Gillingham to control territory and chances, with a high probability of them scoring first. Newport's defensive improvements (two clean sheets in their last five) temper the expected margin, but Gillingham's home attack and Newport's away frailty combine to make a 2-1 home win the likeliest result.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Gillingham vs Newport County Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Gillingham vs Newport County that most previews miss.
- 1Newport County have lost three of four away league matches, conceding at least twice in each defeat.
- 2Gillingham have scored nine of their last eleven goals in the second half, showing a late-game scoring trend.
- 3Despite Newport's poor away record, both teams have scored in 50% of their last ten head-to-head meetings.
Who do you think wins: Gillingham vs Newport County?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Gillingham vs Newport County(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
The most likely scoreline by the model's distribution is 2-1 to Gillingham, matching both teams' typical scoring/conceding rates and the home side's recent attacking output (2.2 goals per game last 5).
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average above 1.4 goals scored per game across the season, and Gillingham's home matches have seen 2.5 goals per game; the model assigns a 54% probability to over 2.5 goals.
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Match Result: Gillingham Win
Gillingham have won three of their last four at home and Newport County have failed to win any of their four away league matches, conceding 2 goals per away game.
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More League Two Predictions
The Case For This Gillingham vs Newport County Prediction
Statistically, this is a fixture where Gillingham's robust home form and Newport's travel struggles define the shape of the contest. Gillingham's attack is trending up, averaging 2.2 goals per game over their last five, while Newport have managed just four goals in four away league matches, conceding twice as many. The goal environment is above average for League Two, with both sides' season-long rates pointing to a high likelihood of two or more goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Gillingham average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home game this season.
- →Newport County have yet to win away, with a 0-1-3 away record and 2.0 goals conceded per away match.
- →Gillingham's last five matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, 11 goals scored, only 4 conceded.
🚩 Gillingham vs Newport County Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Gillingham and 3.1 for Newport County, for an expected total of 7.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (80%). Over 8.5: 31% · Over 10.5: 12%.
How Gillingham and Newport County Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Gillingham vs Newport County Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gillinghamlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Newport Countylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Gillingham are trending upwards, with three wins and a draw in their last four league matches, and 11 goals scored in their last five across all competitions. Newport County, meanwhile, have not won in four league outings (two draws, two losses) and are winless away from home, despite a recent EFL Trophy win at Swindon.
Gillingham vs Newport County — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Gillingham vs Newport County
Newport County have historically enjoyed this fixture, winning six of the last ten meetings and three straight at Priestfield prior to this year. However, Gillingham broke that run with a 3-2 home win in January 2026, suggesting the gap may be closing.
Gillingham vs Newport County Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Gillingham wins
2
Draws
6
Newport County wins
Things to Watch: Gillingham vs Newport County
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds were available at time of modelling; value assessment not possible.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes (7 league matches) mean underlying rates could shift quickly.
- ⚠️Newport's recent clean sheets suggest some defensive improvement not fully captured by season averages.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Gillingham 2–1 Newport CountyThe model projects a 2-1 win for Gillingham, anchored by their strong home scoring rate and Newport's ongoing away defensive issues. The single strongest data point is Newport's 2.0 goals conceded per away league match. The main risk is that Newport's recent defensive solidity (two clean sheets in their last five) holds up better than their season average, making a low-scoring draw possible.
Gillingham vs Newport County: Common Questions
Who will win Gillingham vs Newport County?
Gillingham are favoured by the model with a 48% probability of victory, compared to 32% for a draw and 20% for a Newport County win. This is driven by Gillingham's home form and Newport's poor away record.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Gillingham vs Newport County?
The model assigns a 54% probability to over 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' season averages (Gillingham 1.57 scored, Newport 1.43 scored, both conceding over 1 per game) and Newport's high over 2.5 rate (57%).
What is the recent head-to-head record between Gillingham and Newport County?
Newport County have won six of the last ten meetings, including three straight at Priestfield before Gillingham's 3-2 win in January 2026. Both teams have scored in half of those matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Gillingham vs Newport County: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.