AFC Fylde vs Carlisle Predictions
National League · England
AFC Fylde
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Carlisle
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: AFC Fylde vs Carlisle
AFC Fylde vs Carlisle: Match Preview
AFC Fylde arrive in strong attacking form, sitting fourth after nine matches with 20 goals scored and 17 points. Their recent run features three wins from five, though a home defeat to Altrincham last time out highlights ongoing defensive vulnerabilities. Carlisle, down in 16th, have just two wins and are yet to record a victory on their travels, with a form string of LDDLW and a negative away goal difference.
Statistically, this fixture projects goals. Fylde's matches average 3.67 goals, with 88.9% going over 2.5 and every one of their last five seeing both teams score. Carlisle's away attack is muted (0.75 goals per away game) but their defence concedes 1.25 per away match, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet all season. Both teams start well—each with five first-half goals in their last five—suggesting early scoring is likely. Set piece and discipline data are absent, but both sides average over one yellow per match in recent games.
The model expects an open contest, with Fylde's superior attacking output and Carlisle's defensive frailties the decisive factors. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but the high BTTS and over 2.5 rates mean a 2-2 draw or even a late Carlisle equaliser are plausible. Fylde's inability to shut teams out keeps the door open for the visitors, but their offensive consistency should see them edge it.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AFC Fylde vs Carlisle Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AFC Fylde vs Carlisle that most previews miss.
- 1AFC Fylde have hit BTTS in all of their last five matches and over 2.5 goals in eight of nine this season.
- 2Carlisle are winless away (0W, 2D, 2L) and have conceded in every match so far.
- 3Fylde's home matches average 3.25 goals (7 for, 6 against in four games), while Carlisle's away games average 2.0 goals.
Who do you think wins: AFC Fylde vs Carlisle?
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Where the Model Sees Value: AFC Fylde vs Carlisle(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
AFC Fylde have seen 88.9% of their matches go over 2.5 goals this season, and both sides average above 1.4 goals conceded per game.
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, with AFC Fylde involved in BTTS in all five and Carlisle in four of five.
More National League Predictions
The Case For This AFC Fylde vs Carlisle Prediction
AFC Fylde's attack is producing at a top-four rate, but their defensive record keeps matches open. Carlisle's away struggles and lack of clean sheets set the stage for a high-probability BTTS outcome, with the hosts' superior scoring rate tilting the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →AFC Fylde average 2.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game, with only 11.1% clean sheets.
- →Carlisle have failed to win away (0W, 2D, 2L) and have not kept a clean sheet all season.
Match Context
- →88.9% of AFC Fylde's matches and 55.6% of Carlisle's have gone over 2.5 goals.
How AFC Fylde and Carlisle Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AFC Fylde vs Carlisle Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AFC Fyldelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Carlislelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AFC Fylde have won three of their last five, scoring 12 goals in that span and hitting at least once in every match. Carlisle's form is more mixed, with just one win in five and no away victories, but they have scored in four of those five outings.
AFC Fylde vs Carlisle — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 88.89% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: AFC Fylde vs Carlisle
The only recent meeting was a 2-0 Carlisle win in a pre-season friendly, which provides little predictive value. No competitive H2H data exists, so historical edge is minimal.
AFC Fylde vs Carlisle Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
AFC Fylde wins
0
Draws
1
Carlisle wins
Things to Watch: AFC Fylde vs Carlisle
- ⚠️No current odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Lack of set piece and shot data limits precision on corners and cards estimates.
- ⚠️Only one historical H2H, a friendly, so no competitive context for direct matchup.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AFC Fylde 2–1 CarlisleAFC Fylde are modelled to win 2-1, driven by their league-high over 2.5 goal rate (88.9%) and Carlisle's inability to keep clean sheets. The biggest risk is Fylde's own defensive issues, which could allow Carlisle to snatch a point in a high-scoring draw.
AFC Fylde vs Carlisle: Common Questions
Who will win AFC Fylde vs Carlisle?
AFC Fylde are given a 46% probability of victory, with a 31% chance of a draw and 23% for a Carlisle win. Fylde's strong attack and home advantage make them slight favourites.
Will both teams score in AFC Fylde vs Carlisle?
The probability for both teams to score is 64%. Fylde have seen BTTS in all of their last five, and Carlisle have conceded in every match this season.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
There's a 62% modelled chance of over 2.5 goals, with Fylde's matches clearing that line in 88.9% of their games and both teams averaging over 1.4 conceded per match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AFC Fylde vs Carlisle: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More AFC Fylde vs Carlisle Resources
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results