AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Predictions
League One · England
AFC Wimbledon
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Stevenage
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage: Match Preview
AFC Wimbledon approach this fixture with the league's best defensive home record, having yet to concede a goal at Plough Lane in four matches. Their recent form is steady (DWWLW), and they sit 7th in League One, two points above Stevenage, who have been less consistent but come off a remarkable 6-1 EFL Trophy win. Both clubs are in the upper mid-table, with neither under immediate pressure but both eyeing a push towards the playoff places.
The statistical matchup is defined by Wimbledon's defensive solidity against Stevenage's recent attacking output. Wimbledon average just 0.71 goals scored per game for the season but have kept clean sheets in 5 of 7 matches, including all at home. Stevenage, meanwhile, have scored 11 in 7 league games and 13 in their last 5 in all competitions, but their away league matches are tight, with just 6 goals scored and 3 conceded in 4 outings. Both sides show a tendency for second-half goals, and neither is prolific before the break, with just 3 first-half goals for Wimbledon and 6 for Stevenage in their last 5.
The model projects a low-scoring, closely contested match, with a 1-1 draw the most likely outcome. Defensive organisation on both sides should limit clear chances, and while Stevenage's attack has spiked recently, their away league record suggests a return to tighter margins. The main threat to this scenario is a Stevenage breakthrough, but Wimbledon's home defensive record remains the standout statistic.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage that most previews miss.
- 1AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 league matches, including all 4 at home.
- 2Stevenage's away league games have produced under 2.5 goals in 3 of 4 matches this season.
- 3The last 10 head-to-head meetings have seen Stevenage win 6 times, with Wimbledon winning just once.
Who do you think wins: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The model gives a 38% probability to the draw, with both sides showing strong defensive rates (AFC Wimbledon: 0 goals conceded at home in 4, Stevenage: only 3 away goals conceded in 4) and neither attack consistently outpacing its expected output.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
AFC Wimbledon have seen just 2 of 7 league games go over 2.5 (28.6%), and have yet to concede at home, while Stevenage's away games average only 2.25 total goals.
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The Case For This AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Prediction
AFC Wimbledon host Stevenage in a fixture shaped by defensive reliability and modest attacking output. Wimbledon have yet to concede at Plough Lane this season (4 home matches, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded), while Stevenage have allowed just 3 goals in 4 away league outings. Both sides are positioned in the upper mid-table, with Wimbledon 7th and Stevenage 11th, separated by two points and a slight edge in goal difference for the visitors. Recent form is steady on both sides, but neither has shown a clear attacking breakthrough. Statistically, this match projects as a low-scoring contest. Wimbledon average only 0.71 goals per game for the season and have kept clean sheets in 71% of matches, but their shot volume (12.6 per game, 3 on target) suggests a lack of clinical finishing. Stevenage, by contrast, have been more productive in front of goal (1.57 per game, 2.6 in the last 5), but their away matches have been tight, with a single win and two draws from four. Both teams' last 5 defensive averages are identical at 0.8 goals conceded per game, and neither side is prone to early collapses, with most goals arriving after the interval. The model expects a tactical, attritional contest with limited clear chances. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with both teams' defensive structure outweighing their attacking ambitions. The main risk to this projection comes from Stevenage's recent attacking surge (13 goals in their last 5 in all competitions), but their league away record suggests regression to the mean.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →AFC Wimbledon have not conceded a goal in 4 home league matches this season.
- →Stevenage's away league matches average just 2.25 total goals per game (6 scored, 3 conceded in 4).
- →Wimbledon have the highest clean sheet percentage in League One (71.4%), while Stevenage's is just 14.3%.
🚩 AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for AFC Wimbledon and 5.1 for Stevenage, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AFC Wimbledonlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Stevenagelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their last four league matches (DWWD), conceding just one goal in that stretch and boasting a perfect defensive record at home. Stevenage have been more volatile, with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five, but come off a 6-1 cup win and have scored 13 goals in their last five across all competitions.
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +71.43% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
Stevenage have a strong recent record against Wimbledon, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters and losing just once. Their last visit to Plough Lane ended in a 0-0 draw, but they also recorded a 5-1 away win here in 2025. Most meetings have seen Stevenage find the net, highlighting a historical edge.
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
AFC Wimbledon wins
3
Draws
6
Stevenage wins
Things to Watch: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Stevenage's recent 6-1 EFL Trophy win could overstate their attacking threat relative to league form.
- ⚠️Sample size for both teams is still small (7 league matches), so early-season variance is possible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AFC Wimbledon 1–1 StevenageThe model calls this as a 1-1 draw, anchored by Wimbledon's exceptional home defensive record (0 goals conceded in 4) and Stevenage's tendency for low-scoring away matches. The strongest data point is Wimbledon's 71% clean sheet rate, but if Stevenage's recent attacking form carries over from cup to league, the draw could be threatened by a late winner.
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage: Common Questions
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
The model gives AFC Wimbledon a 29% chance to win, Stevenage a 33% chance, and the draw a 38% chance. Both sides are defensively sound, but neither has a clear edge, making the draw the most probable result.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59% probability, with both teams averaging fewer than 1.5 goals conceded per game and Wimbledon's home matches all finishing under this line so far.
What is the recent head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage?
Stevenage have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, with Wimbledon winning just once. The most recent league meeting ended 1-0 to Stevenage, and the last three at Plough Lane have produced two draws and a 5-1 Stevenage win.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.