Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
Al-Hazm
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.8/10Al-Ahli Jeddah Roar Back to Sink Al-Hazm After Early Scare
Al-Ahli Jeddah overcame an early setback to record a commanding 3-1 victory over Al-Hazm at King Abdullah Sports City. Despite conceding just two minutes in, the hosts responded with a barrage of attacking football, scoring three times before halftime to seize control of the contest. Al-Hazm’s promising start quickly faded as Al-Ahli’s superior firepower and midfield dominance turned the tide. With 23 shots and 51% possession, Al-Ahli dictated the tempo, especially in a first half brimming with intensity and attacking intent. Goals in the 21st, 32nd, and 45th minutes underscored their ruthless efficiency. Al-Hazm, despite a spirited opening and 18 shots of their own, struggled to match Al-Ahli’s quality in the final third, registering just three shots on target. The second half saw the home side manage proceedings professionally, seeing out the result with composure.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
2' — Goal
Aboubacar Diakite gives Al-Hazm a shock lead with a well-taken finish.
21' — Goal
Al-Ahli Jeddah equalize, capitalizing on sustained pressure to level the score.
32' — Goal
The hosts take the lead, completing the turnaround with a clinical attack.
45' — Goal
Al-Ahli extend their advantage on the stroke of halftime, effectively sealing the result.
67' — Yellow Card
Al-Hazm pick up the game’s only booking, reflecting their growing frustration.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah responded superbly to an early deficit, quickly asserting their authority with sustained pressure and incisive attacking play. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid movement in midfield and wide areas, with the creative trio behind Ivan Toney instrumental in unlocking Al-Hazm’s defense. The hosts’ 23 shots (seven on target) reflected their attacking intent, and their three first-half goals were a testament to their clinical finishing. Defensively, Al-Ahli recovered from the early lapse to limit Al-Hazm’s threat, with the back four and Édouard Mendy regaining composure. The team’s ability to control possession (51%) and win key midfield battles ensured they dictated the match’s rhythm, particularly after taking the lead.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm began brightly, catching Al-Ahli cold with a goal inside two minutes, but struggled to maintain that momentum as the match progressed. Their 4-2-3-1 setup initially allowed them to press high and disrupt Al-Ahli’s build-up, but defensive frailties and a lack of cutting edge soon became apparent. Despite 18 shots, only three tested the goalkeeper, highlighting inefficiency in front of goal. The visitors’ midfield, led by Bonheur Mugisha and S. Bendebka, battled hard but were eventually overrun by Al-Ahli’s dynamic movement. As Al-Ahli’s goals mounted, Al-Hazm’s attacking threat waned, and they were forced into damage limitation mode in the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Al-Ahli’s implementation proved superior. The home side’s attacking midfielders—Trincão, Galeno, and Waheb Saleh—constantly rotated positions, creating overloads and confusion in Al-Hazm’s defensive lines. Ivan Toney’s movement as the lone striker stretched the back four, opening space for late runs from midfield. Al-Hazm’s early press paid dividends with the opener, but as the match wore on, their midfield struggled to contain Al-Ahli’s fluidity. The visitors’ defensive line was exposed by quick combinations and direct runs, while their own attacking play became increasingly isolated. Set pieces offered little respite, with Al-Ahli defending corners confidently and transitioning quickly into attack.
Turning Point
Al-Ahli’s equalizer in the 21st minute shifted momentum decisively, sparking a dominant spell that saw them score twice more before halftime.
Man of the Match
Trincão
Pulled the strings in midfield, consistently creating chances and playing a key role in Al-Ahli’s attacking dominance.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm: Match Preview
Al-Ahli Jeddah return to home soil after consecutive defeats on the road, looking to reassert themselves against an Al-Hazm side that sits three places below them in the early table. Al-Ahli’s only home league match this season produced a commanding 4-0 win, and their head-to-head record against Al-Hazm is emphatic, with seven wins in the last ten meetings. Al-Hazm arrive with just one win from four and have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, but have shown some attacking resilience, scoring in three of their four matches.
Statistically, this fixture projects a goal-friendly environment. Al-Ahli average 1.5 goals scored and conceded per league match, while Al-Hazm mirror those rates almost exactly. Both sides’ matches have cleared the 2.5 goal line in a majority of cases (Al-Ahli 75%, Al-Hazm 50%), and Al-Hazm’s last five outings have seen BTTS land four times. Al-Ahli’s shot volume (12.4 per game) and set-piece threat (3.8 corners per match) point to sustained attacking pressure, while Al-Hazm’s low possession and shot counts suggest they will rely on transitions and set plays.
The model expects Al-Ahli’s home attack to be decisive, but Al-Hazm’s ability to score—especially in first halves—should keep the contest open. With both teams averaging over 1.5 goals conceded, and neither defence showing early-season solidity, a 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but the distribution supports both over 2.5 goals and BTTS as strong statistical plays.
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of league matches but conceded in three of their last five across all competitions.
- 2Al-Hazm have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, with BTTS landing in four of those games.
- 3In their last five head-to-heads, Al-Ahli have won every match by at least a two-goal margin, conceding just once.
Who do you think wins: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
The 2-1 scoreline aligns with Al-Ahli Jeddah’s strong home attack (4-0 in their only home league match) and Al-Hazm’s average of 2 goals conceded per away game, while both sides average over 1.5 goals scored per match.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average 1.5 goals conceded per game and have hit over 2.5 in 75% (Al-Ahli) and 50% (Al-Hazm) of league matches, with recent form supporting a goal-friendly environment.
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BTTS: Yes
Al-Hazm have failed to score just once in their last five, and Al-Ahli have conceded in three of their last five; BTTS has landed in four of Al-Hazm’s last five.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm Prediction
Al-Ahli Jeddah’s home attack rate and Al-Hazm’s defensive frailties set up a match with above-average goal expectation, but both sides’ concession rates and BTTS trends suggest a competitive contest rather than a rout.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Al-Hazm have conceded 1.5 goals per game overall, and 2.0 per away game.
- →Both teams average 1.5+ goals conceded per league match, supporting a high goal probability.
Match Context
- →Al-Ahli Jeddah average 4.0 goals for and 0.0 against in home league matches this season (one match sample).
🚩 Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 4.8 for Al-Hazm, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Ahli Jeddahlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Hazmlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Ahli Jeddah have alternated between dominant home wins and heavy away defeats, most recently losing 0-3 at Al-Hilal after a 4-0 home victory over Abha. Al-Hazm’s form is patchy, with a single win and one draw from four league games, but they have found the net in three of their last four, showing some attacking consistency despite defensive issues.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm
Al-Ahli Jeddah have a commanding record in this fixture, winning seven of the last ten meetings and each of the last four, often by multiple goals. Al-Hazm have managed just one win in the same stretch, and recent encounters have been one-sided, with Al-Ahli keeping three clean sheets in the last five matchups.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be formally assessed. The model’s strongest probabilities are on Al-Ahli Jeddah to win, over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score, all of which are supported by underlying scoring and concession rates. If market odds for these outcomes are generous, they would represent potential value based on the statistical profile.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm
- ⚠️Small sample size for home/away splits due to early season.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form is mixed for both teams, increasing result variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Al-HazmThe numbers point to a 2-1 win for Al-Ahli Jeddah, with their strong home attack and historical dominance the key drivers. The main risk is Al-Ahli’s recent defensive lapses, which could allow Al-Hazm to take advantage of transitions or set pieces and turn the match into a higher-scoring draw.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah are favoured with a 52% probability of victory, based on their home scoring rate and dominant head-to-head record. Al-Hazm have a 21% chance, with the draw at 27%.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Both teams to score is rated at 57%, reflecting that Al-Hazm have scored in four of their last five and Al-Ahli have conceded in three of five recent matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
The model gives a 61% probability to over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams averaging 1.5 goals conceded per match and Al-Ahli’s high home scoring rate.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.