Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Ettifaq
Full Time
4 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 1
Al-Fateh
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.75(+6% edge)
Match Result
9.1/10Seven-Goal Thriller: Al-Ettifaq Edge Al-Fateh in Pro League Classic
Al-Ettifaq emerged victorious in a pulsating 4-3 encounter against Al-Fateh at the Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, delivering one of the most entertaining matches of the Saudi Pro League season. The hosts stormed into a commanding lead with three goals in the opening 36 minutes, only for Al-Fateh to mount a spirited comeback that kept the contest on a knife-edge until the final whistle. With both sides trading blows in a high-octane first half, Al-Ettifaq raced ahead through strikes in the 18th, 23rd, and 36th minutes, but Al-Fateh responded with two quickfire goals just before halftime to reignite their hopes. The second half saw Al-Ettifaq restore their cushion in the 48th minute, but Al-Fateh refused to go quietly, pulling another goal back in the 71st. Despite late pressure and a total of 15 shots (eight on target), the visitors could not find an equalizer, as Al-Ettifaq held on in a match brimming with attacking intent and drama.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
4 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
18' — Goal
Al-Ettifaq open the scoring, setting the tone for a frenetic first half.
23' — Goal
Al-Ettifaq double their lead, capitalizing on defensive uncertainty.
36' — Goal
Al-Ettifaq make it three, seemingly putting the game out of sight.
44' — Goal
Al-Fateh pull one back, sparking hopes of a comeback.
45' — Goal
Al-Fateh strike again moments later, reducing the deficit to one before halftime.
48' — Goal
Al-Ettifaq restore their two-goal cushion early in the second half.
71' — Goal
Al-Fateh score their third, setting up a tense finale.
Al-Ettifaq
Al-Ettifaq started with a bold 5-3-2 formation, using their defensive structure to spring forward with purpose. Their early dominance was rewarded with three well-taken goals, showcasing clinical finishing and incisive midfield play. Despite conceding twice late in the first half, they regrouped after the break to score a crucial fourth goal, demonstrating resilience and attacking verve. Defensively, Al-Ettifaq showed some vulnerability under Al-Fateh's pressure, especially from set pieces and wide areas, but their ability to capitalize on chances made the difference. Their discipline was tested, as evidenced by five yellow cards, but they maintained composure in the closing stages to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh set up in an adventurous 3-4-1-2, looking to control the midfield and press high. Despite falling behind early, they showed tremendous spirit to claw their way back with two goals on the stroke of halftime, shifting the momentum. Their attacking intent was evident, outshooting Al-Ettifaq with 15 attempts and forcing the home keeper into action eight times. However, defensive frailties were exposed by Al-Ettifaq's direct play, and they struggled to contain counter-attacks. While their late push yielded a third goal, they ultimately fell just short, lacking a killer instinct in the dying minutes despite sustained pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Ettifaq’s 5-3-2 formation provided defensive solidity but also allowed them to break quickly, especially through the midfield trio of Wijnaldum, Duda, and Medrán. Their wing-backs pushed forward early, stretching Al-Fateh’s back three and creating overloads. The hosts’ direct approach paid dividends, particularly in the first half when they exploited gaps behind Al-Fateh’s wing-backs. Al-Fateh’s 3-4-1-2 setup aimed to dominate central areas and press high, but they struggled to track Al-Ettifaq’s runners from deep. After falling behind, their tactical shift saw more men committed forward, with Vargas and Batna becoming increasingly influential. Set pieces and crosses from wide areas were a constant threat, and their late surge nearly paid off, but defensive vulnerabilities ultimately cost them.
Turning Point
Al-Ettifaq’s fourth goal in the 48th minute, just after halftime, restored their cushion and proved decisive in fending off Al-Fateh’s comeback.
Man of the Match
Ondrej Duda
Pulled the strings in midfield, driving Al-Ettifaq’s attacking play and contributing decisively to their early dominance.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.75
Both sides are inconsistent, Al-Ettifaq are stronger at home but Al-Fateh have a strong H2H record. Recent form and low-scoring trends suggest a close, cagey match. Model probability for draw is higher than market implied.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Prediction
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Fateh in a mid-table clash where both teams are looking to solidify their league positions. Al-Ettifaq have shown stronger recent form at home, but Al-Fateh have historically performed well in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 H2Hs. Both teams are coming off losses, with Al-Ettifaq slightly better defensively at home and Al-Fateh struggling to score away. Expect a tight, low-scoring match with neither side likely to dominate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Al-Ettifaq have won 3 of their last 5, but have failed to score in 2 of those matches.
- →Head-to-head: Al-Fateh have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, including 3 of the last 4 away at Al-Ettifaq.
- →Al-Ettifaq's home record is solid (5W 4D 2L), while Al-Fateh's away form is weak (2W 4D 4L).
Attack
- →Al-Fateh are winless in 5 (LDDDL), with only 0.8 goals scored per game in that span.
- →Both teams have a negative goal difference and limited attacking output recently.
Defence
- →Al-Fateh have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5 and concede 1.6 goals per game in that period.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported.
🚩 Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Al-Ettifaq and 4.8 for Al-Fateh, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Ettifaqlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Al-Fatehlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Al-Ettifaq wins
1
Draws
7
Al-Fateh wins
Things to Watch: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh
- ⚠️Lack of detailed shot/possession data for Al-Ettifaq's recent matches reduces model confidence in attack/defence strength.
- ⚠️Both teams have been inconsistent, increasing variance.
- ⚠️H2H sample may overstate Al-Fateh's edge due to squad changes.
- ⚠️Market odds on BTTS 'no' are too short for value despite model lean.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 February 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.