Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Fateh
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Al-Ettifaq
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10Dembélé Strikes Late as Al-Ettifaq Edge Al-Fateh in Tight Contest
Al-Ettifaq secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Al-Fateh at the Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, thanks to a decisive late goal from Moussa Dembélé in the 78th minute. The visitors dominated possession with 59% and created the lion's share of chances, registering 12 shots to Al-Fateh's 5, but struggled to break down a well-organized home defense for much of the match. Al-Fateh, set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, defended resolutely and limited Al-Ettifaq to just two shots on target, matching their own tally in that department. However, as the match wore on, Al-Ettifaq's pressure told, culminating in Dembélé's clinical finish that ultimately separated the sides. Despite a late push from the hosts, Al-Ettifaq held on to claim all three points in a match largely devoid of clear-cut opportunities.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
78' — Goal
Moussa Dembélé breaks the deadlock with a decisive finish to give Al-Ettifaq the lead.
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh delivered a disciplined defensive display, frustrating Al-Ettifaq for long stretches despite conceding the majority of possession and territory. Their 4-2-3-1 shape kept the midfield compact and limited space between the lines, but they struggled to create meaningful chances going forward, managing just two shots on target from five attempts. While their backline, marshaled by Kennedy Boateng and Marwane Saadane, held firm for much of the contest, the lack of attacking thrust ultimately proved costly. Al-Fateh's inability to transition effectively or threaten in the final third meant they were always vulnerable to a moment of quality from the visitors.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Ettifaq
Al-Ettifaq controlled the tempo of the match with 59% possession and a 4-3-3 formation that emphasized width and ball retention. Their persistence eventually paid off when Moussa Dembélé found the breakthrough in the 78th minute, capitalizing on a rare lapse in the Al-Fateh defense. Despite their dominance in possession and territory, Al-Ettifaq found clear chances hard to come by, with only two of their 12 shots testing the goalkeeper. Nonetheless, their patient build-up and attacking intent were eventually rewarded, ensuring a deserved—if hard-earned—three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Fateh set up in a compact 4-2-3-1, prioritizing defensive solidity and crowding central areas to frustrate Al-Ettifaq's midfielders. Their double pivot shielded the back four effectively, but this came at the expense of attacking ambition, with Wilfried Kanga often isolated up front. Al-Ettifaq's 4-3-3 formation allowed them to dominate possession and stretch the play, particularly through the wide areas. The midfield trio, led by Álvaro Medrán, circulated the ball patiently, probing for openings. The visitors' use of width and overlapping full-backs eventually wore down Al-Fateh's defensive block, leading to the late winner.
Turning Point
Moussa Dembélé's goal in the 78th minute, which finally broke Al-Fateh's resistance and decided the match.
Man of the Match
Moussa Dembélé
Provided the decisive moment of quality with the only goal in a tight contest.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq: Match Preview
Al-Fateh enter the new league campaign after a mixed pre-season and a poor finish to last season, with just one win in their last five competitive matches and a notable struggle in front of goal. Al-Ettifaq, by contrast, began their campaign with a convincing 4-2 win over Al Riyadh and have scored at least once in each of their last five, suggesting their attack is already in rhythm. The early table has Al-Ettifaq second, while Al-Fateh are yet to play, but the underlying momentum is clearly with the visitors.
From a statistical perspective, this fixture matches a blunt Al-Fateh attack (0.6 goals scored per last five, three blanks) against an Al-Ettifaq side whose defensive record is not watertight (2.0 conceded per last five) but whose attack is among the league's most potent. Al-Ettifaq's matches have been consistently high-scoring, with all of their last five seeing both teams score and an average of 4.2 total goals per game. Al-Fateh's defence has kept two clean sheets in their last five but has also shipped three goals on two occasions, reflecting volatility rather than solidity.
The model projects a match tilted towards Al-Ettifaq on attacking rates, with over 2.5 goals a strong statistical play (62% probability). While Al-Fateh's historical home dominance in this fixture cannot be ignored, their current scoring rate is a major concern. Expect Al-Ettifaq to create more high-quality chances, and if recent trends hold, the likeliest outcome is a 2-1 away win.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Ettifaq's last five competitive and friendly matches have all seen both teams score, with an average of 4.2 total goals per game.
- 2Al-Fateh have failed to score in three of their last five, averaging just 0.6 goals per match in that span.
- 3Despite Al-Fateh's dominance in the H2H (7 wins in last 10), the last two meetings have both gone over 2.5 goals and produced away wins.
Who do you think wins: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Al-Ettifaq Win
Al-Ettifaq have averaged 2.2 goals scored per match across their last five, have not failed to score in any of those, and face an Al-Fateh side averaging just 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in the same span. The away side's attacking rate and recent four-goal league opener tilt the probabilities in their favour despite Al-Fateh's historic H2H edge.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have strong recent over 2.5 trends: Al-Ettifaq's last five have all seen BTTS and average 4.2 total goals, while Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.4 conceded per last five) suggests vulnerability. The model gives a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals.
Read more ↓
More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction
Statistical rates point to Al-Ettifaq holding the attacking edge, with their recent goal output and BTTS streaks suggesting a higher-scoring contest. Al-Fateh's home record in this fixture is strong historically, but their current attacking output is well below the league average. Expect Al-Ettifaq's forward line, led by Dembele, to capitalise on a defence that has conceded in four of the last five.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Al-Ettifaq average 2.2 goals scored in their last five matches, with BTTS in all five.
- →Al-Fateh have failed to score in three of their last five and average just 0.6 goals per game in that span.
- →Head-to-head favours Al-Fateh at home (7 wins in last 10), but recent form and attacking rates are with Al-Ettifaq.
🚩 Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.9 corners for Al-Fateh and 4.4 for Al-Ettifaq, for an expected total of 8.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 44% · Over 10.5: 21%.
How Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Fatehlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Ettifaqlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Fateh's recent form is concerning, with just one win and three scoreless outings in their last five, highlighting a lack of attacking threat. Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have found the net in every one of their last five and opened the league campaign with an emphatic 4-2 win, signalling strong attacking momentum.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq
Al-Fateh have historically been dominant at home in this fixture, winning seven of the last ten meetings, but the last two encounters have both featured at least three goals and have not always gone the way of the home side. The H2H trend points to goals, with five of the last six meetings producing at least three goals.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Al-Fateh wins
1
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq wins
Things to Watch: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq
- ⚠️No current season home or away data for Al-Fateh; season sample size is one for Al-Ettifaq.
- ⚠️Pre-season and friendly results may not fully reflect competitive match strength.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds unavailable, so no value edge can be formally calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Fateh 1–2 Al-EttifaqThe model predicts a 2-1 win for Al-Ettifaq, driven by their superior recent attacking rate (2.2 goals per last five) and Al-Fateh's ongoing struggles in front of goal. The single strongest data point is Al-Ettifaq's 100% BTTS and over 2.5 run in their last five. The main risk is Al-Fateh rediscovering their home form from previous head-to-heads, but the current attacking output does not support that scenario.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
The model gives Al-Ettifaq a 45% chance of victory, compared to 27% for Al-Fateh and 28% for the draw. Al-Ettifaq's recent attacking output and opening-day win give them the statistical edge.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
There is a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals, based on both teams' recent scoring and concession rates. Al-Ettifaq's last five games have averaged 4.2 total goals and all have gone over this line.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 58%, with Al-Ettifaq having seen BTTS in all of their last five matches, but Al-Fateh's attack is less reliable, having failed to score in three of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.