Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Predictions

Pro LeaguePro League · Saudi-Arabia
high confidence
Al-Ettifaq

Al-Ettifaq

Full Time

0 - 0

AI predicted 2 - 1

Al Najma

Al Najma

🗓️ Monday, 4 May 2026 at 21:00 GMT+3 (venue time) · 18:00 UTC (your time)📍 EGO Stadium, Dammam

Win Probability (1X2)

Al-Ettifaq 61%Draw 25%Al Najma 14%

Best Value Pick

Match Result: Al-Ettifaq Win

Match Result

6.8/10

Al-Ettifaq Held by Stubborn Al Najma in Goalless Stalemate

Al-Ettifaq and Al Najma played out a tense 0-0 draw at the EGO Stadium in Dammam, with both sides unable to break the deadlock despite a flurry of chances. Al-Ettifaq dominated possession with 60% and peppered the Al Najma goal with 21 shots, but found Victor Braga in inspired form and a resolute five-man defence blocking their path. Al Najma, set up in a compact 5-4-1, proved difficult to break down and looked dangerous on the counter, registering 15 shots and forcing Marek Rodák into several saves. The match was marked by physicality, with four yellow cards shown, but ultimately both teams lacked the clinical edge to claim all three points.

💀 AI Prediction Report

DOWN BAD

Predicted

2 - 1

⚡

Actual

0 - 0

❌Result
❌BTTS
❌O/U 2.5
❌Score

💰 Bet Results0/3 hit

1x2 — home
❌
over_under_2_5 — over
❌
btts — yes
❌

Key Moments

23' — Yellow Card

Nasser Al Haleel (Al Najma) booked for a late challenge on Wijnaldum.

37' — Save

Victor Braga denies Moussa Dembélé from close range.

54' — Yellow Card

Samir Caetano (Al Najma) shown yellow for a tactical foul on Nkota.

65' — Save

Marek Rodák pulls off a sharp save from Lázaro's low drive.

72' — Yellow Card

Abdulaziz Al Harabi (Al Najma) cautioned for dissent.

80' — Yellow Card

Álvaro Medrán (Al-Ettifaq) booked for a foul breaking up a counter.

Al-Ettifaq

Al-Ettifaq

6.5/10

Al-Ettifaq controlled the tempo for much of the match, boasting 60% possession and creating a host of opportunities, particularly through the midfield trio of Álvaro Medrán, Ondrej Duda, and Georginio Wijnaldum. Despite 21 total shots and 7 corners, they struggled to convert dominance into goals, often thwarted by Al Najma's deep defensive block and the sharp reflexes of Victor Braga. Moussa Dembélé led the line energetically but found little space, while the wide play of Khalid Al-Ghannam and Mohau Nkota provided some threat. Ultimately, a lack of cutting edge in the final third and some frustration in the closing stages saw Al-Ettifaq settle for a point.

Key Players

Álvaro Medrán: Controlled midfield tempo and created several chances.
Moussa Dembélé: Worked tirelessly up front, registering multiple shots.
Marek Rodák: Made key saves to deny Al Najma on the counter.

Strengths

Dominated possessionCreated numerous chancesMidfield control

Weaknesses

Lack of clinical finishingStruggled to break down deep defence
Al Najma

Al Najma

7/10

Al Najma executed their defensive game plan superbly, deploying a disciplined 5-4-1 formation that frustrated the hosts. Despite conceding 60% possession and facing 21 shots, their back five—marshalled by Mohammed Al Fatil and Samir Caetano—stood firm, while Victor Braga produced several important stops. On the break, Al Najma were purposeful, managing 15 shots and 4 on target, with Lázaro and Felippe Cardoso offering the main attacking outlets. Their physical approach yielded three yellow cards but also disrupted Al-Ettifaq's rhythm, earning them a hard-fought point on the road.

Key Players

Victor Braga: Made crucial saves to keep a clean sheet.
Mohammed Al Fatil: Led the defensive line with composure and organisation.
Lázaro: Provided attacking threat on the counter.

Strengths

Disciplined defendingEffective counter-attacksGoalkeeper's strong performance

Weaknesses

Limited possessionReliance on defensive structure

Tactical Analysis

Al-Ettifaq set up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to dominate the ball and stretch Al Najma's deep-lying five-man defence. Their full-backs pushed high to provide width, but the visitors' compact shape and disciplined midfield pressing forced Al-Ettifaq to shoot from distance or attempt intricate play through congested central areas. Al Najma's 5-4-1 focused on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their wing-backs rarely ventured forward, prioritising numbers at the back, while Lázaro and Cardoso looked to exploit space on the break. As Al-Ettifaq pressed for a winner, Al Najma's counter-attacks became more frequent, but neither side could find the decisive moment.

Turning Point

Victor Braga’s point-blank save from Moussa Dembélé in the 37th minute preserved parity and set the tone for Al Najma’s resilient display.

Man of the Match

Victor Braga

Produced a string of vital saves and commanded his area to secure a clean sheet for Al Najma.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Al-Ettifaq2.20

Expected goals · model says 2.20

Al Najma1.10

Expected goals · model says 1.10

Win Probability
Al-Ettifaq 62% Draw 20% Al Najma 18%

Over 2.5 Goals

64%

BTTS: Yes

59%

Likely Scores

2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
61%
25%
14%
Al-Ettifaq 61%Draw 25%Al Najma 14%
Both Teams to Score
59%
41%
Yes 59%No 41%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
66%
34%
Over 2.5 66%Under 2.5 34%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
40%
60%
Over 9.5 40%Under 9.5 60%

Who do you think wins: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

More Pro League Predictions

The Case For This Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Prediction

Al-Ettifaq host bottom-placed Al Najma in a match that strongly favors the home side. Al-Ettifaq have been inconsistent but boast a solid home record and face an Al Najma team that has yet to win away and concedes heavily. Expect a match with multiple goals, as both teams have high over 2.5 rates and poor recent defensive records. Al Najma's attack has shown some life, but their defense remains a major liability, making an Al-Ettifaq win and a goal-filled game the likeliest outcomes.

Key Factors at a Glance

Defence

  • →Al Najma away record: 0W/2D/12L, 10 scored, 35 conceded in 14.
  • →Al Najma have the league's worst defense (2.38 conceded per game).

Injuries & Team News

  • →No significant injuries reported for either side.

Match Context

  • →Al-Ettifaq home record: 7W/5D/3L, 25 scored in 15.
  • →Both teams have high over 2.5 goal percentages (Al Najma 72%, Al-Ettifaq 59%).
  • →Recent H2H was a 4-3 win for Al-Ettifaq.
  • →Al Najma have scored in 4 of their last 5, despite poor results.

🚩 Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Corners Prediction

medium confidence
8.9expected total corners
Over 40%
Under 60%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Al-Ettifaq and 3.6 for Al Najma, for an expected total of 8.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Al-Ettifaq and Al Najma Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

Al-EttifaqAl-Ettifaqlast 5 matches

No scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.

Al NajmaAl Najmalast 5 matches

No scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.

Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma — Last 10 Matches

Al-EttifaqAl-EttifaqLast 10 results
D0-0
W3-1
L0-1
L2-3
W3-2
L0-1
D1-1
L1-3
L0-4
W4-3
Dvs Al Najma0-0
W@ Al Okhdood3-1
L@ Al-Nassr0-1
Lvs Al Riyadh2-3
Wvs Al-Qadisiyah FC3-2
L@ Al-Fayha0-1
Dvs Al Shabab1-1
L@ Al-Hazm1-3
L@ Al-Qadisiyah FC0-4
Wvs Al-Fateh4-3
Al NajmaAl NajmaLast 10 results
D0-0
L1-3
L1-2
W2-1
L2-5
L1-3
L0-4
L1-3
L0-5
L1-4
D@ Al-Ettifaq0-0
L@ Al Khaleej Saihat1-3
Lvs Al Taawon1-2
Wvs NEOM2-1
L@ Al-Nassr2-5
Lvs Damac1-3
L@ Al-Hilal Saudi FC0-4
Lvs Al Okhdood1-3
Lvs Al-Nassr0-5
L@ Al-Ahli Jeddah1-4

Strengths

  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 70.97% of games this season

Concerns

  • −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
  • −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game

What History Says: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma

Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Head-to-Head History

Last 2 meetings between these sides

1

Al-Ettifaq wins

1

Draws

0

Al Najma wins

50%50% draws0%
4 May 26Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma0-0
8 Jan 26Al Najma vs Al-Ettifaq3-4

Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma

Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.

1X2

SelectionOddsModel %Edge
Al-Ettifaq Win1.2261.0%-21.0%
Drawvalue4.5025.0%+2.8%
Al Najma Win4.0014.0%-11.0%

Over/Under 2.5

SelectionOddsModel %Edge
Over 2.5value3.2566.0%+35.2%
Under 2.51.3334.0%-41.2%

Both Teams Score

SelectionOddsModel %Edge
Yesvalue3.7559.0%+32.3%
No1.2541.0%-39.0%

Best Value Markets Found by the Model

1X2: Draw @ 4.50EV +0.125
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 @ 3.25EV +1.145
Both Teams Score: Yes @ 3.75EV +1.212

EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.

Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.

Things to Watch: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edge cannot be calculated.
  • ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, possession) for recent games.
  • ⚠️Al-Ettifaq's recent form is inconsistent (LLWLD), so some risk of underperformance.
  • ⚠️Only one recent H2H; limited sample size for rivalry trends.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 27 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

More Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Resources