Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Predictions

Al-Ettifaq
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1

Al Najma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Al-Ettifaq Win
Match Result
6.8/10Al-Ettifaq Held by Stubborn Al Najma in Goalless Stalemate
Al-Ettifaq and Al Najma played out a tense 0-0 draw at the EGO Stadium in Dammam, with both sides unable to break the deadlock despite a flurry of chances. Al-Ettifaq dominated possession with 60% and peppered the Al Najma goal with 21 shots, but found Victor Braga in inspired form and a resolute five-man defence blocking their path. Al Najma, set up in a compact 5-4-1, proved difficult to break down and looked dangerous on the counter, registering 15 shots and forcing Marek Rodák into several saves. The match was marked by physicality, with four yellow cards shown, but ultimately both teams lacked the clinical edge to claim all three points.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
23' — Yellow Card
Nasser Al Haleel (Al Najma) booked for a late challenge on Wijnaldum.
37' — Save
Victor Braga denies Moussa Dembélé from close range.
54' — Yellow Card
Samir Caetano (Al Najma) shown yellow for a tactical foul on Nkota.
65' — Save
Marek Rodák pulls off a sharp save from Lázaro's low drive.
72' — Yellow Card
Abdulaziz Al Harabi (Al Najma) cautioned for dissent.
80' — Yellow Card
Álvaro Medrán (Al-Ettifaq) booked for a foul breaking up a counter.
Al-Ettifaq
Al-Ettifaq controlled the tempo for much of the match, boasting 60% possession and creating a host of opportunities, particularly through the midfield trio of Álvaro Medrán, Ondrej Duda, and Georginio Wijnaldum. Despite 21 total shots and 7 corners, they struggled to convert dominance into goals, often thwarted by Al Najma's deep defensive block and the sharp reflexes of Victor Braga. Moussa Dembélé led the line energetically but found little space, while the wide play of Khalid Al-Ghannam and Mohau Nkota provided some threat. Ultimately, a lack of cutting edge in the final third and some frustration in the closing stages saw Al-Ettifaq settle for a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al Najma
Al Najma executed their defensive game plan superbly, deploying a disciplined 5-4-1 formation that frustrated the hosts. Despite conceding 60% possession and facing 21 shots, their back five—marshalled by Mohammed Al Fatil and Samir Caetano—stood firm, while Victor Braga produced several important stops. On the break, Al Najma were purposeful, managing 15 shots and 4 on target, with Lázaro and Felippe Cardoso offering the main attacking outlets. Their physical approach yielded three yellow cards but also disrupted Al-Ettifaq's rhythm, earning them a hard-fought point on the road.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Ettifaq set up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to dominate the ball and stretch Al Najma's deep-lying five-man defence. Their full-backs pushed high to provide width, but the visitors' compact shape and disciplined midfield pressing forced Al-Ettifaq to shoot from distance or attempt intricate play through congested central areas. Al Najma's 5-4-1 focused on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their wing-backs rarely ventured forward, prioritising numbers at the back, while Lázaro and Cardoso looked to exploit space on the break. As Al-Ettifaq pressed for a winner, Al Najma's counter-attacks became more frequent, but neither side could find the decisive moment.
Turning Point
Victor Braga’s point-blank save from Moussa Dembélé in the 37th minute preserved parity and set the tone for Al Najma’s resilient display.
Man of the Match
Victor Braga
Produced a string of vital saves and commanded his area to secure a clean sheet for Al Najma.
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Expected goals · model says 2.20
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Al-Ettifaq Win
Al-Ettifaq are strong at home (7W/5D/3L), face an Al Najma side with 0 away wins and the league's worst defense (2.38 conceded/game). Motivation and form both favor the hosts.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' matches frequently go over 2.5 goals (Al-Ettifaq 58.6%, Al Najma 72.4%), and recent H2H finished 4-3. Both defenses are leaky, especially Al Najma.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3/5 for Al-Ettifaq and 4/5 for Al Najma. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5, and Al Najma have scored in 4/5.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Prediction
Al-Ettifaq host bottom-placed Al Najma in a match that strongly favors the home side. Al-Ettifaq have been inconsistent but boast a solid home record and face an Al Najma team that has yet to win away and concedes heavily. Expect a match with multiple goals, as both teams have high over 2.5 rates and poor recent defensive records. Al Najma's attack has shown some life, but their defense remains a major liability, making an Al-Ettifaq win and a goal-filled game the likeliest outcomes.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Al Najma away record: 0W/2D/12L, 10 scored, 35 conceded in 14.
- →Al Najma have the league's worst defense (2.38 conceded per game).
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Al-Ettifaq home record: 7W/5D/3L, 25 scored in 15.
- →Both teams have high over 2.5 goal percentages (Al Najma 72%, Al-Ettifaq 59%).
- →Recent H2H was a 4-3 win for Al-Ettifaq.
- →Al Najma have scored in 4 of their last 5, despite poor results.
🚩 Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Al-Ettifaq and 3.6 for Al Najma, for an expected total of 8.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Al-Ettifaq and Al Najma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
No scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
No scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70.97% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Al-Ettifaq wins
1
Draws
0
Al Najma wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edge cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, possession) for recent games.
- ⚠️Al-Ettifaq's recent form is inconsistent (LLWLD), so some risk of underperformance.
- ⚠️Only one recent H2H; limited sample size for rivalry trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 27 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.