Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Faisaly FC
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Al-Fateh
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.7/10Al-Faisaly and Al-Fateh Share the Spoils in Fiery 1-1 Stalemate
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh played out a tense 1-1 draw at Al Majma'ah Sport City, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a winner. Wilfried Kanga put the visitors ahead in the 29th minute, capitalizing on Al-Fateh's slight edge in possession and attacking intent. Al-Faisaly responded well, with Alexandre Mendy leveling the scores just before halftime in the 41st minute, setting up a fiercely contested second half. Both teams matched each other in almost every department, each registering 11 shots, but Al-Fateh edged the shots on target with 5 to Al-Faisaly's 3. The second half saw tempers flare, with Al-Faisaly picking up four yellow cards and a late red, while Al-Fateh were shown two yellows. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Al-Faisaly held firm, and neither side could break the deadlock, leaving both to settle for a point apiece.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
29' — Goal
Wilfried Kanga puts Al-Fateh ahead with a composed finish.
41' — Goal
Alexandre Mendy equalizes for Al-Faisaly, shifting the momentum before the break.
Second Half' — Red Card
Al-Faisaly reduced to 10 men after a second booking, increasing the pressure on the hosts.
Throughout' — Disciplinary
A total of 6 yellow cards and 1 red reflect the match's intensity and physicality.
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly showed resilience after conceding first, responding with a well-taken equalizer from Alexandre Mendy. Their 4-1-4-1 formation provided defensive solidity but limited their attacking options, as reflected in just 3 shots on target from 11 attempts. The hosts struggled to assert dominance in possession (49%) and were forced to dig deep after a red card in the second half, ultimately doing well to preserve a point against a probing Al-Fateh side.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh started brightly, taking a deserved lead through Wilfried Kanga and maintaining a slight possession advantage (51%). Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed for fluid attacking play, with 5 shots on target from 11 attempts. However, they failed to capitalize on their numerical superiority late on and were unable to break down a determined Al-Faisaly defense in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Faisaly lined up in a 4-1-4-1, prioritizing defensive solidity with Eid Al Muwallad shielding the back four. This setup allowed them to absorb pressure but limited their ability to commit numbers forward, especially after going down to 10 men. Al-Fateh's 4-2-3-1 provided more fluidity in attack, with Lukáš Haraslín and Mourad Batna supporting Kanga, and they looked the more likely to score in open play. Set pieces were few and far between, with only five corners combined, and both teams struggled to create clear-cut chances in the second half, as the match became increasingly scrappy and stop-start due to fouls and cards.
Turning Point
The red card to Al-Faisaly in the second half, forcing them to play more defensively and ultimately hold on for a draw.
Man of the Match
Alexandre Mendy
His equalizing goal galvanized Al-Faisaly and his tireless work up front helped secure a hard-fought point despite the numerical disadvantage.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh: Match Preview
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh both enter this fixture searching for their first points of the new Pro League season, having suffered heavy opening losses—Al-Faisaly 2-4 away at Al-Hilal, Al-Fateh 0-3 at Al-Nassr. Both sides are coming off multi-game losing streaks, and with little to separate them in the early standings, the pressure is on to avoid a second straight defeat.
Statistically, neither side has shown much attacking threat in recent matches. Al-Fateh have failed to score in four of their last five, averaging just 0.4 goals per game, while Al-Faisaly's 2.4 goals per game is skewed by lower-division and friendly opposition. Defensive numbers are similarly unconvincing: Al-Fateh have conceded 1.4 per game over their last five, and Al-Faisaly 1.6. Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals land in three of their last five combined, and neither has a clean sheet in the league this season.
The model expects a low-scoring, evenly matched contest, with the draw and under 2.5 goals both rated as the likeliest outcomes. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, reflecting the lack of attacking edge and the early season caution likely to shape both teams' approach.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Fateh have failed to score in four of their last five matches, including their league opener.
- 2The last 10 head-to-heads have produced both teams scoring in 70% of games, but recent attacking form is weak on both sides.
- 3Al-Faisaly's last five matches average just 1 shot on target per game, indicating a lack of clear-cut chances.
Who do you think wins: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is the statistical mode, with both sides showing low attacking output in recent matches (Al-Faisaly 2.4 goals scored/1.6 conceded last 5, Al-Fateh 0.4 scored/1.4 conceded), and neither attack or defence dominating the matchup.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have struggled for attacking consistency—Al-Fateh have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, and the combined last-5 average goals per match is 2.8, but defensive regression and opening day results suggest a lower-scoring contest is more likely than the market may expect.
Read more ↓
More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh Prediction
This fixture pairs two sides coming off opening defeats, with Al-Faisaly conceding four away to Al-Hilal and Al-Fateh blanked 0-3 at Al-Nassr. Both are seeking their first points, but early-season caution and limited attacking output shape the expected tempo. The underlying rates point to a contest where neither side can impose sustained pressure. Al-Faisaly's last five games show an average of 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, but this is inflated by lower-division opposition and a recent cup defeat. Al-Fateh's recent output is even more subdued: just 0.4 goals scored per game across their last five, with four matches failing to find the net. Defensively, Al-Fateh have kept two clean sheets in that span, but both came last season. Both sides average under 2 shots on target per game in the last five, and neither has a home/away record to lean on yet this season. The statistical shape is for a low-event match, with the draw the most probable outcome and the 1-1 scoreline the modal result. The most plausible deviation would be if Al-Faisaly's slightly higher attacking output at this level carries through, but the rates do not support a high-scoring contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Al-Fateh have failed to score in four of their last five matches.
Defence
- →Al-Faisaly's last five matches average 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, but against mixed opposition.
Match Context
- →Both teams are winless and goalless in the league after one match.
🚩 Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.6 corners for Al-Faisaly FC and 4.6 for Al-Fateh, for an expected total of 8.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 44% · Over 10.5: 20%.
How Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Faisaly FClast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Fatehlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Al-Faisaly arrive on a two-game losing streak, conceding seven goals in their last two outings, though their prior form included comfortable wins against lower-tier sides. Al-Fateh have lost two in a row as well, but their attack has dried up, failing to score in four of the last five. Both sides are winless in the league, with Al-Faisaly at least showing some scoring potential in defeat.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh
The last 10 meetings are closely contested, with Al-Fateh holding a slight edge (4 wins to Al-Faisaly's 3), and draws occurring in 3 matches. High-scoring games have been common historically, but the most recent clash ended 1-0 to Al-Faisaly, hinting at a tighter contest this time.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Al-Faisaly FC wins
4
Draws
4
Al-Fateh wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh
With no bookmaker odds available, value analysis is limited. The model's strongest lean is towards the draw and under 2.5 goals, both of which are supported by the underlying rates and recent attacking struggles from both teams.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh
- ⚠️Both teams have played only one league match this season, so season-long rates are not yet robust.
- ⚠️Recent form includes friendlies and cup games, which may not reflect Pro League quality.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Faisaly FC 1–1 Al-FatehA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, with both teams lacking attacking sharpness—Al-Fateh's four blanks in five games are the single strongest indicator. The main risk is if Al-Faisaly's higher recent scoring rate (albeit against weaker opposition) translates to the Pro League, but the overall shot and chance creation numbers do not support a high-scoring outcome.
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
The model rates the draw as the most likely outcome (37%), with Al-Faisaly (33%) and Al-Fateh (30%) closely matched. Both sides have started the season with defeats and have struggled for attacking output.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Both teams to score is rated at 47%, with 'No' slightly favoured at 53%. Al-Fateh have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Al-Faisaly have found the net more regularly.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Under 2.5 goals is the model's preferred angle, with a 56% probability. Both teams have shown limited attacking threat in recent matches, and the early season context suggests a cautious, low-scoring affair.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.