Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Hazm
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Al Shabab
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.5/10Late Drama as Al-Hazm Snatch Draw Against 10-Man Al Shabab
Al-Hazm and Al Shabab played out a dramatic 1-1 draw at the Al-Hazem Club Stadium, with both goals coming in the second half and a late red card adding to the tension. Al Shabab looked to have secured all three points after Roger Martínez broke the deadlock early in the second half, but a determined Al-Hazm side capitalized on their numerical advantage following an Al Shabab sending off, grabbing a stoppage-time equalizer. Al Shabab dominated possession with 55% and created more chances, firing 11 shots with 6 on target, but their inability to kill off the game proved costly. Al-Hazm, despite being outplayed for large spells, showed resilience and took their opportunity late on, ensuring a share of the spoils in front of their home fans.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
48' — Goal
Roger Martínez puts Al Shabab ahead, finishing off a flowing move.
65' — Red Card
Al Shabab reduced to ten men after a straight red, shifting the momentum.
90' — Goal
Afimico Pululu equalizes for Al-Hazm with a late strike.
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm started cautiously, absorbing pressure and looking to hit on the break. They struggled to create clear chances for much of the match, managing just 8 shots and 4 on target, but their persistence paid off in the dying moments. The team showed character, especially after falling behind, and made the most of their man advantage in the final stages to rescue a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al Shabab
Al Shabab controlled much of the match, dictating play with 55% possession and creating the better chances. Roger Martínez gave them a deserved lead shortly after halftime, and the midfield duo of Josh Brownhill and Yacine Adli helped keep Al-Hazm pinned back. However, a red card in the second half shifted the momentum, and their inability to manage the game with ten men ultimately cost them victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming for balance between midfield solidity and attacking support. Al Shabab's superior possession and use of the flanks, especially through Carrasco and Podence, stretched Al-Hazm's back line and created openings. Al-Hazm, meanwhile, sat deeper and looked for opportunities on the counter, relying on Pululu's movement up front. The red card forced Al Shabab to drop deeper and defend their lead, inviting pressure and ultimately conceding late. Set pieces were a key outlet for Al Shabab, who won 8 corners, but they failed to capitalize. Substitutions from both sides aimed to inject energy and shore up weaknesses, but it was Al-Hazm's late push, aided by their numerical superiority, that proved decisive.
Turning Point
The red card to Al Shabab in the 65th minute shifted the balance, allowing Al-Hazm to press forward and snatch a late equalizer.
Man of the Match
Afimico Pululu
Delivered under pressure with a 90th-minute equalizer, capping a tireless performance up front.
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab: Match Preview
Al-Hazm enter this fixture with a split start to the new campaign, having edged Abha away but fallen at home to Al Diriyah. Their form string reads 'LWWWL', but their only home match this season ended in a 0-1 defeat, highlighting a continued struggle to create high-quality chances in front of their own fans. Al Shabab, meanwhile, have stumbled out of the blocks with a draw and a defeat, scoring just once in two league outings and sitting 13th in the table. Despite their historical dominance over Al-Hazm, their current attacking output is subdued.
From a statistical perspective, both teams are operating at low attacking and defensive rates. Al-Hazm's last five matches average just 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Al Shabab's are even tighter at 1.6 for and 0.8 against, but their league numbers are lower still. Shot volumes are modest—Al-Hazm average 7 shots and 2.6 on target per game, while Al Shabab's last five average just 4.6 shots and 1.6 on target. Both sides have split their goals evenly between halves, and neither has shown set-piece dominance, with corners per game under 4 for both. Discipline is moderate, with Al-Hazm averaging 2 yellows per match recently.
Given the statistical shape—low scoring rates, limited attacking threat, and a history of tight matches when current form is considered—the model expects a low-scoring, cagey affair. The likeliest outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the modal scoreline, as neither attack is likely to overwhelm the other's defence based on current rates. The main risk to this projection is Al Shabab rediscovering their historical edge, but there is little in the recent numbers to support a breakout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab that most previews miss.
- 1Al Shabab have won all 10 of the last head-to-heads, but have scored just 1 goal in two league matches this season.
- 2Al-Hazm have failed to score in two of their last five matches and in their only home league game so far.
- 3Combined, these teams average just 2.0 goals scored per game in the league this season (Al-Hazm 1.0, Al Shabab 1.0).
Who do you think wins: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average exactly 1.0 goal scored per league game so far, with Al Shabab conceding 1.5 and Al-Hazm 1.0; the distribution of recent results and the low attacking shot volume from both teams point towards a low-scoring draw as the modal outcome.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in half of their league matches this season, and their combined last-5 average goals per game sits at 2.2, with neither attack showing consistent shot volume or conversion.
Read more ↓
More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as one of the lowest goal environments of the round, with both Al-Hazm and Al Shabab averaging just 1.0 goal scored per league match and neither side demonstrating sustained attacking output. Home and away splits offer little separating power: Al-Hazm failed to score in their only home match, while Al Shabab have yet to score on their travels. The historical head-to-head is lopsided in Al Shabab's favour, but current form and underlying rates suggest a much tighter contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →All of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have been won by Al Shabab, but recent team form and shot data suggest regression.
Defence
- →Al-Hazm average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per league game this season.
- →Al Shabab have managed only 1 goal in 2 league matches, conceding 1.5 per game.
🚩 Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Al-Hazm and 5.4 for Al Shabab, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Al-Hazm and Al Shabab Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Hazmlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al Shabablast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Hazm's recent form is mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five, but their only home league match ended in defeat without scoring. Al Shabab are winless in the league this season, drawing away and losing at home, and have managed just one goal in two matches. Both sides are struggling to generate attacking momentum early in the campaign.
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab — Last 2 Matches
What History Says: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab
Al Shabab have dominated this fixture historically, winning all of the last 10 meetings, including emphatic away victories such as 4-0 and 3-0 in recent seasons. However, their current scoring and defensive numbers are well below those historical standards, suggesting the gap has narrowed.
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
Al-Hazm wins
0
Draws
10
Al Shabab wins
Things to Watch: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds unavailable, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Early season data: only two league matches per team, so averages may not be stable.
- ⚠️Al Shabab's historical dominance in the fixture is not reflected in current attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Hazm 1–1 Al ShababThe numbers point to a 1-1 draw, with the strongest data point being both teams' season scoring rates of exactly 1.0 per game and shot volumes that do not support a high-scoring outcome. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Al Shabab's historical dominance reasserts itself despite their current attacking struggles.
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
The model rates Al-Hazm and a draw equally likely at 36% each, with Al Shabab given a 28% chance. Both teams have struggled for goals and points early in the season, so a draw is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
The probability for both teams to score is 48%, reflecting that both sides average exactly 1.0 goal scored per league match and neither has shown consistent attacking threat.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
There is a 60% probability of under 2.5 goals, as both teams have seen half their league matches finish below this line and their combined scoring rates are low.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.