Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Full Time
3 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match Result
9/10Late Drama as Al-Qadisiyah FC Stun Al-Ahli Jeddah in Five-Goal Thriller
Al-Qadisiyah FC produced a stunning late comeback to edge Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 in a pulsating Pro League encounter at the Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Despite trailing 2-0 at halftime after goals from Ivan Toney and Firas Al-Buraikan, the hosts rallied with an inspired second-half performance, capped by two stoppage-time strikes to snatch all three points. The visitors looked in control for much of the match, but Al-Qadisiyah’s dominance in possession (64%) eventually told. Key substitutions and a relentless attacking push saw the home side claw their way back, with Julián Quiñones and Mateo Retegui both finding the net in the dying moments to complete a remarkable turnaround.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
27' — Goal
Ivan Toney opens the scoring for Al-Ahli Jeddah, finishing a swift counter-attack.
42' — Goal
Firas Al-Buraikan doubles Al-Ahli’s lead with a composed finish.
63' — Goal
Al-Qadisiyah FC pull one back, igniting hopes of a comeback.
90' — Goal
Julián Quiñones levels the match in stoppage time with a dramatic strike.
90' — Goal
Mateo Retegui completes the turnaround with a last-gasp winner.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC started brightly, controlling possession and probing Al-Ahli’s backline, but found themselves two goals down by halftime. The second half saw a tactical shift, with increased urgency and attacking intent. Their persistence paid off with three goals after the 63rd minute, including a dramatic double in stoppage time. Defensively, they were occasionally exposed, but their resilience and belief were rewarded. The midfield trio, led by Julian Weigl and Nahitan Nández, dictated play and set the tempo, while the attacking duo of Julián Quiñones and Mateo Retegui delivered when it mattered most.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah looked set for victory after a disciplined first half, taking their chances clinically through Ivan Toney and Firas Al-Buraikan. Their 4-3-3 setup allowed them to break quickly and exploit Al-Qadisiyah’s high line. However, they struggled to maintain control as the hosts mounted their comeback, conceding three goals in the final half hour. Despite a solid showing from Edouard Mendy in goal and Franck Kessié’s midfield presence, Al-Ahli’s defensive frailties and inability to manage the game late on proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC’s 3-5-2 formation focused on dominating midfield and controlling possession, with wing-backs pushing high to stretch Al-Ahli’s defensive line. The hosts’ patience in buildup was evident, but they initially struggled to penetrate Al-Ahli’s compact 4-3-3 setup. After halftime, Al-Qadisiyah increased their attacking width and tempo, committing more players forward and pressing higher up the pitch. Al-Ahli Jeddah’s strategy revolved around quick transitions and exploiting spaces behind Al-Qadisiyah’s back three. While effective in the first half, their inability to retain the ball and manage the tempo in the closing stages allowed Al-Qadisiyah to sustain pressure and ultimately overturn the deficit.
Turning Point
The equalizer by Julián Quiñones in stoppage time shifted momentum entirely, paving the way for Mateo Retegui’s dramatic winner seconds later.
Man of the Match
Mateo Retegui
Delivered the decisive goal in stoppage time and led the line with relentless energy.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in excellent form (WWWWW), have the league's best away defensive record (4 conceded in 12), and have dominated recent H2H. Al-Qadisiyah are unbeaten at home but have drawn 5 of 13. X2 covers the away win and draw, aligning with both model and API predictions.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average nearly 2 goals scored per game, and 3 of the last 5 H2H had 3+ goals. Al-Qadisiyah's matches see over 2.5 goals 68% this season; Al-Ahli Jeddah's is lower, but recent form is more open.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both have failed to score 0 times in that span. Attackers are in form, and H2H trends support BTTS.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction
This is a high-stakes clash between two of the Pro League's top four. Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten at home but face a red-hot Al-Ahli Jeddah side on a five-match winning streak and boasting the league's best away defence. The hosts have been free-scoring but occasionally drop points at home, while Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack is firing and their squad depth is showing. Expect a competitive match with goals at both ends, but the away side's quality and defensive solidity make them slight favourites.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Al-Ahli Jeddah are unbeaten in their last 12 away league games (W9 D2 L1 overall away).
- →Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten at home (W8 D5 L0) but have drawn 5 of 13.
Attack
- →Both teams average nearly 2 goals scored per game.
Defence
- →Al-Ahli Jeddah have a higher clean sheet rate (56%) and best away defence (4 goals conceded in 12).
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Recent H2H favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (6 wins in last 10, including 5-1 away win this season).
🚩 Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.6 corners for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 3.8 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Qadisiyah FClast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Al-Ahli Jeddahlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +51.72% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins
2
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
Things to Watch: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided; value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, possession, etc.) for several recent games.
- ⚠️Al-Qadisiyah's home record is strong, so away win is not high confidence.
- ⚠️Possible rotation for Al-Ahli Jeddah after recent Champions League fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.