Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Full Time
3 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8/10Al-Qadisiyah Survive Late Al-Ahli Surge in Five-Goal Thriller
Al-Qadisiyah FC edged out Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 in a pulsating encounter at the Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, holding off a spirited late comeback from the visitors. The hosts seized control early, racing into a 3-0 lead by halftime with goals in the 14th minute and a dramatic double strike just before the break. Al-Ahli, however, refused to go quietly, clawing back two goals in the second half to set up a tense finale. Despite dominating possession with 56% and firing 7 shots on target from 11 attempts, Al-Qadisiyah were forced to dig deep as Al-Ahli responded with 5 shots on target and 21 fouls in a physical contest. The home side’s resilience and first-half clinical edge ultimately proved decisive, as Al-Ahli’s late momentum fell just short of a remarkable turnaround.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
14' — Goal
M. Retegui opens the scoring for Al-Qadisiyah with a clinical finish.
45' — Goal
J. Quiñones doubles the lead for the hosts just before halftime.
45' — Goal
Al-Qadisiyah strike again in stoppage time for a commanding 3-0 lead.
63' — Goal
I. Toney pulls one back for Al-Ahli, igniting hopes of a comeback.
82' — Goal
Al-Ahli score again to make it 3-2, setting up a tense finish.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Al-Qadisiyah collect four yellow cards as they battle to hold their lead.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC delivered a commanding first-half display, capitalizing on their 3-4-2-1 formation to overload the midfield and pin Al-Ahli back. Their attacking intent was rewarded with three goals before the interval, showcasing sharp finishing and effective movement in the final third. The hosts managed the game well for large spells, but a drop in intensity after the break allowed Al-Ahli back into the contest. Defensively, Al-Qadisiyah were forced into a rearguard action late on, committing 16 fouls and picking up four yellow cards as they sought to disrupt Al-Ahli’s rhythm. Ultimately, their early dominance and ability to withstand late pressure secured all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah endured a nightmare first half, conceding three times and struggling to gain a foothold in midfield with their 4-2-3-1 setup. However, their response after halftime was spirited and effective, as they pressed higher and found attacking joy, pulling two goals back in the 63rd and 82nd minutes. Despite being second-best in possession and committing 21 fouls (receiving a single yellow card), Al-Ahli’s late rally showcased their attacking quality and fighting spirit. Ultimately, their slow start and defensive lapses before halftime left them with too much to do.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah’s 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield early, with wingbacks pushing high and central midfielders dictating the tempo. Their numerical superiority in the middle stifled Al-Ahli’s creative outlets, leading to sustained pressure and three first-half goals. The hosts’ tactical discipline, however, waned in the second half as Al-Ahli adjusted by pressing higher and committing more bodies forward. Al-Ahli’s 4-2-3-1 setup initially left them overrun in midfield, but substitutions and a more aggressive approach after the break saw them exploit spaces behind Al-Qadisiyah’s wingbacks. The visitors’ late surge was built on quick transitions and direct play, but their lack of first-half compactness ultimately proved costly.
Turning Point
The double strike by Al-Qadisiyah just before halftime, establishing a 3-0 lead and leaving Al-Ahli with a mountain to climb.
Man of the Match
M. Retegui
Set the tone with the opening goal and led the line with relentless energy and quality.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: Match Preview
Al-Qadisiyah FC arrive in strong early-season form, sitting third after four matches with three wins and a single defeat. Their attack has been productive, averaging 2 goals per game, and they come off a convincing 3-1 home win. Al-Ahli Jeddah, seventh with two wins and one loss, have also started positively but suffered a setback in their last away outing, losing 3-1 to Al Kholood. Both sides are in the upper third of the table, and neither has a significant injury list, setting up a contest with direct implications for the top places.
Statistically, these teams are well-matched: both average exactly 2 goals scored per league game, and their defences have conceded 3 (Al-Qadisiyah, 0.75 per game) and 3 (Al-Ahli, 1.0 per game) respectively. Al-Qadisiyah’s home record is balanced (1 win, 1 loss), while Al-Ahli’s away form is mixed (1 win, 1 loss, 2 goals for, 3 against). Recent shot and possession numbers are similar, but Al-Qadisiyah generate more shots and corners at home (13.4 shots, 6 corners per game last 5), suggesting a slight territorial edge. Both teams’ matches have been more likely to stay under 2.5 goals so far, despite occasional high-scoring head-to-heads.
The model expects a tight, tactical contest with few clear-cut chances. The most probable outcome is a low-scoring draw, as neither attack decisively outpaces the other’s defence and both sides have shown the ability to restrict quality chances. A 1-1 scoreline is marginally favoured, with the under 2.5 goals market offering the clearest statistical value given the underlying rates and recent match tempo.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Qadisiyah have averaged 13.4 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game in their last 5, compared to Al-Ahli’s 9.8 and 2.6.
- 2Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, conceding just 0.8 goals per game in that span.
- 3Despite high-profile H2Hs, only 50% of Al-Qadisiyah’s league games and 66% of Al-Ahli’s have gone over 2.5 goals this season.
Who do you think wins: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides average exactly 2 goals scored per game in the league but combine for just 1.75 goals conceded per game, and only 50% (Al-Qadisiyah) and 66% (Al-Ahli) of matches have gone over 2.5 so far, with recent shot-on-target numbers modest for both.
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Correct Score: 1–1
The most likely outcome by the model is a 1-1 draw, with both teams averaging close to 1 goal conceded per game and neither side showing a clear attacking edge in recent home/away splits.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction
This fixture sets up as a statistical deadlock between two sides with similar scoring and defensive rates, and no major form or squad anomalies to tilt the balance. Al-Qadisiyah have started strongly at home, while Al-Ahli Jeddah’s away numbers are solid but not dominant, suggesting a low-margin contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head: 5 wins for Al-Ahli, 3 for Al-Qadisiyah, 2 draws in the last 10, but recent meetings have been tighter (3-2, 3-3, 2-1, 1-0).
Defence
- →Al-Qadisiyah average 2.0 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per league game; Al-Ahli Jeddah average 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- →Al-Qadisiyah’s last 5: 2.6 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game; Al-Ahli’s last 5: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded.
🚩 Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.7 corners for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 4.7 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, for an expected total of 11.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 58%.
How Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Qadisiyah FClast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Al-Ahli Jeddahlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in strong form with four wins from their last five in all competitions, conceding just three goals in that stretch. Al-Ahli Jeddah have also started well, winning four of their last five across all competitions, but their most recent league match ended in a 3-1 defeat away. Both teams are showing defensive solidity and have avoided major blips, making this a well-matched contest.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the edge historically, winning five of the last ten meetings, but the last three encounters have produced one win each and a draw, with scorelines of 3-2, 3-3, and 2-1. Both teams have scored in seven of the last ten, and only two of the last ten ended goalless for either side.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins
2
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
With no bookmaker odds available, value analysis is limited. However, the model’s strongest statistical lean is towards under 2.5 goals, given both sides’ defensive records and the low average goals conceded per match. The 1X2 market is finely balanced, with no major edge on either side.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes for both teams’ current season records (4 and 3 league games).
- ⚠️No injury or suspension data to significantly alter baseline rates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al-Ahli JeddahA 1-1 draw is the model’s baseline, driven by both teams’ nearly identical scoring and concession rates and the absence of major form or squad disruptions. The strongest data point is the convergence of both sides at 2.0 goals scored per game and sub-1.0 goals conceded, pointing to a low-margin, balanced contest. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if either attack capitalises on an early goal and the game opens up, as seen in some recent head-to-heads.
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah a 36% chance to win, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 30% chance, and a draw 34%. Both teams have similar scoring and defensive records, so the most likely result is a draw.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
There is a 48% probability that both teams will score, with both sides averaging 2.0 goals scored per game but also keeping multiple clean sheets recently. The model leans slightly towards 'no', but it is close to a coin toss.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 55% probability, as both teams’ matches have trended low-scoring this season (only 50% and 66% over 2.5), and neither side is consistently prolific in attack.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.