Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al Shabab
Full Time
2 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8.1/10Late Mendy Strike Earns Al-Faisaly Dramatic Draw at Al Shabab
Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at the SHG Arena in Riyadh, with both sides showcasing attacking intent and resilience. The hosts surged ahead early through Ricardo Mathias in the 7th minute and doubled their lead on the half-hour mark via Roger Martínez, but Al-Faisaly clawed their way back into the contest. Flávio halved the deficit in the 38th minute, and Alexandre Mendy's 79th-minute equalizer capped a spirited comeback for the visitors. Al Shabab looked in control for much of the first half, but Al-Faisaly’s tactical adjustments and increased possession after the break turned the tide. Despite a flurry of late chances and a combined 28 shots between the two teams, neither could find the decisive winner, leaving both sides to settle for a point in an entertaining Saudi Pro League clash.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
Ricardo Mathias gives Al Shabab an early lead with a composed finish.
30' — Goal
Roger Martínez doubles the advantage for the hosts, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
38' — Goal
Flávio pulls one back for Al-Faisaly, shifting the momentum before halftime.
79' — Goal
Alexandre Mendy completes the comeback for Al-Faisaly with a well-taken equalizer.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Five yellow cards shown in a competitive midfield battle, with three for Al Shabab and two for Al-Faisaly.
Al Shabab
Al Shabab started brightly, capitalizing on early momentum to take a two-goal lead within the opening 30 minutes. Their 4-4-2 formation provided balance in midfield and width on the flanks, with Daniel Podence and Y. Adli pulling the strings. However, defensive lapses before halftime and in the latter stages allowed Al-Faisaly back into the game. Despite registering 17 shots (7 on target) and enjoying spells of attacking dominance, Al Shabab struggled to maintain control as the match wore on, ultimately conceding a late equalizer.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC displayed impressive resilience, recovering from a two-goal deficit to earn a valuable point away from home. Their 3-4-3 setup allowed them to dominate possession (52%) and gradually impose themselves, especially after falling behind. Flávio’s goal before halftime was pivotal, and the visitors’ persistence paid off when Alexandre Mendy struck the equalizer in the 79th minute. Strong midfield work and timely attacking substitutions helped shift the momentum in their favor during the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al Shabab’s 4-4-2 formation provided early solidity and attacking width, with Podence and Adli orchestrating play from central areas. Their full-backs pushed high, aiding in the creation of chances, but this also left them exposed to counters as the match progressed. Al-Faisaly’s 3-4-3 allowed for superior numbers in midfield, helping them control possession and stretch Al Shabab’s defensive lines. The away side’s pressing improved in the second half, disrupting Al Shabab’s rhythm and enabling turnovers in advanced positions. Substitutions in the second half injected fresh energy for Al-Faisaly, who pushed their wing-backs higher and committed more bodies forward, culminating in Mendy’s equalizer.
Turning Point
Flávio’s goal in the 38th minute gave Al-Faisaly belief and shifted the momentum, paving the way for their second-half resurgence.
Man of the Match
Alexandre Mendy
Scored the vital equalizer and led the line with determination, inspiring Al-Faisaly’s comeback.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC: Match Preview
Al Shabab come into this fixture on the back of their first league win of the season, a 3-0 home victory over Al Taawon, but their overall record remains underwhelming with just one win from eight and a goal difference of -2. Al-Faisaly sit even lower in the table, still searching for their first victory after seven matches and having conceded 13 goals, the second-worst defensive mark in the division. Both sides are under pressure to climb away from the relegation zone, but neither has found a consistent formula for points.
Statistically, this matchup is shaped by two blunt attacks and vulnerable defences. Al Shabab average 1.13 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game, while Al-Faisaly's away matches yield just 1 goal scored and over 2 conceded on average. Shot volumes are modest—Al Shabab average 10.6 shots and 3.8 on target per match over their last five, while Al-Faisaly manage only 7.2 shots and 2.2 on target. Both teams have kept two clean sheets in their last five, but have also failed to score twice each, suggesting long spells of cautious, low-quality football. The first half is especially cagey, with only five combined first-half goals in their last ten matches.
Given these rates, the model expects a low-scoring contest with Al Shabab's home advantage tipping the scales. The most likely distribution is a narrow home win or a draw, with under 2.5 goals favoured by the underlying numbers. Both teams' inability to sustain attacking pressure or convert chances consistently points to a match decided by a single goal or less.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC that most previews miss.
- 1Al Shabab's home matches average just 3.0 total goals, but their last five at home have produced two clean sheets.
- 2Al-Faisaly have scored only once before half-time in their last five league games, highlighting a recurring slow start.
- 3The last ten H2H meetings have produced five draws and only three matches with over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides average under 1.5 goals scored per game and have combined for under 2.5 in 57% of league matches; neither attack has shown consistent output, and both have recent clean sheets.
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Match Result: Al Shabab Win
Al Shabab have lost just once at home and face an Al-Faisaly side without an away win and scoring only 0.71 goals per game this season.
More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC Prediction
This fixture pits two of the league's lowest-scoring sides against each other, with Al Shabab holding a slight edge due to home advantage and a marginally better defensive record. Al-Faisaly have yet to win a match this season and have struggled to create chances away from home, averaging just 0.71 goals scored and conceding 1.86 per game. The underlying rates suggest a low-scoring contest, with neither side likely to dominate the shot or possession metrics.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Al Shabab's home record (1W, 2D, 2L, 7GF, 8GA) is modest but superior to Al-Faisaly's away form (0W, 1D, 2L, 3GF, 7GA).
Defence
- →Al-Faisaly have failed to win any of their seven league matches and have the second-worst defensive record in the division.
- →Both teams average under 1.4 goals scored per game, and Al Shabab have kept two clean sheets in their last five.
🚩 Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.9 corners for Al Shabab and 4 for Al-Faisaly FC, for an expected total of 8.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 53% · Over 10.5: 28%.
How Al Shabab and Al-Faisaly FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al Shabablast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Faisaly FClast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al Shabab have shown some recent improvement, snapping a five-match winless run with a convincing 3-0 victory over Al Taawon. However, their overall form remains patchy, with only one win in eight and two clean sheets in the last five. Al-Faisaly, meanwhile, are still searching for their first win of the season, having drawn three and lost four, and have scored just five goals in seven matches.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC — Last 9 Matches
What History Says: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC
The head-to-head record is balanced, with five draws in the last ten meetings and only three matches producing more than two goals. Al Shabab have a slight edge historically at home, but the fixture has often been tight and low-scoring, as seen in the 1-0 and 0-0 scorelines in recent years.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Al Shabab wins
6
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no clear value edges can be calculated. However, the model's strong lean towards under 2.5 goals and a low probability for an away win suggest these markets would be the first to check for potential value if prices are posted.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in performance, with recent swings from 3-0 wins to goalless draws.
- ⚠️H2H data is dated, with the most recent meetings over two years ago; current squads may differ significantly.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al Shabab 1–0 Al-Faisaly FCThe numbers point to a 1-0 home win, driven primarily by Al-Faisaly's lack of attacking threat—just 0.71 goals per game and no away wins all season. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Al Shabab's inconsistent attack fails to break down a deep-lying Al-Faisaly side, resulting in a goalless draw.
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC: Common Questions
Who will win Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al Shabab are favoured with a 46% probability of victory, compared to 36% for a draw and just 18% for an Al-Faisaly win. The home side's slightly stronger defensive record and Al-Faisaly's winless campaign tip the balance.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC?
The model gives a 63% probability to under 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' low scoring rates—Al Shabab average 1.13 goals per game, Al-Faisaly just 0.71. Only 50% and 42.86% of their matches respectively have gone over 2.5.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at just 33%, with 67% for 'no', as both sides have failed to score in two of their last five matches and neither attack has shown consistent output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.