Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al Shabab
Full Time
1 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
Match Result
7.8/10Late Surge Seals Al-Qadisiyah FC’s 3-1 Comeback Win Over Al Shabab
Al-Qadisiyah FC produced a stirring second-half comeback to defeat Al Shabab 3-1 at the Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Riyadh. The hosts took an early lead through Yannick Carrasco in the 15th minute, but Al-Qadisiyah FC gradually asserted control, equalizing before half-time and then scoring twice in the final ten minutes to secure all three points. Despite Al Shabab’s promising start and resilient defending, Al-Qadisiyah’s superior possession (55%) and attacking intent (15 shots, 6 on target) eventually told. Goals from Julián Quiñones, Christopher Baah, and Mateo Retegui capped a dominant second half, while Al Shabab struggled to maintain their early momentum and were undone by late defensive lapses.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
Yannick Carrasco finishes a swift move to give Al Shabab an early lead.
36' — Goal
Julián Quiñones levels for Al-Qadisiyah FC, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
80' — Goal
Christopher Baah puts Al-Qadisiyah FC ahead with a composed finish.
90' — Goal
Mateo Retegui seals the result with a late goal on the counter.
various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up bookings in a competitive midfield battle (2 for Al Shabab, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC).
Al Shabab
Al Shabab began brightly, capitalizing on a fast start with Yannick Carrasco’s opener. Their 4-4-2 formation provided early width and attacking threat, but as the match wore on, they ceded control to Al-Qadisiyah FC. Despite creating a handful of chances (8 shots, 3 on target) and matching their opponents physically (13 fouls each), Al Shabab’s midfield struggled to retain possession and their backline came under increasing pressure. Ultimately, defensive frailties and a lack of attacking cohesion after the break saw them concede three times, including two late goals that sealed their fate. The team’s inability to adapt tactically or regain control in midfield proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC responded impressively after falling behind, growing into the game with patient buildup and sustained pressure. Their 3-1-4-2 formation allowed them to dominate midfield and stretch Al Shabab’s defense, reflected in their superior possession (55%) and attacking output (15 shots, 6 on target, 9 corners). Key contributions from Julián Quiñones, Christopher Baah, and Mateo Retegui turned the tide, with the team’s persistence and tactical flexibility paying dividends late on. Defensively, they remained organized, conceding few clear chances after the early setback and maintaining composure to see out the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al Shabab’s 4-4-2 formation allowed them to exploit the flanks early, but as Al-Qadisiyah FC settled into their 3-1-4-2, the visitors’ extra midfielder gave them the edge in possession and territorial control. Al-Qadisiyah’s wing-backs pushed high, pinning back Al Shabab’s wide men and forcing the hosts deeper as the match progressed. Set pieces became a key battleground, with Al-Qadisiyah earning nine corners to Al Shabab’s six, further highlighting their territorial advantage. The introduction of fresh legs and tactical tweaks in midfield helped Al-Qadisiyah sustain their attacking momentum, while Al Shabab’s inability to adapt saw them concede space and ultimately the match.
Turning Point
Christopher Baah’s 80th-minute goal, which gave Al-Qadisiyah FC the lead for the first time and broke Al Shabab’s resistance.
Man of the Match
Christopher Baah
His decisive goal and dynamic midfield play turned the match in Al-Qadisiyah’s favor.
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: Match Preview
Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC open their Pro League campaigns off the back of productive pre-seasons, but the underlying numbers point to a slight edge for the visitors. Al Shabab have won three straight friendlies, scoring three in each of their last two, while Al-Qadisiyah FC ended last season with three consecutive league wins and a 5-1 away demolition of Al-Ittihad FC. Both sides sit in the top half of the projected table, but Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent away form and H2H record suggest they travel with confidence.
Statistically, this fixture profiles as open. Al Shabab's attack has averaged 2.0 goals and 4.2 shots per match in their last five, but their defence has kept just two clean sheets and conceded in both recent H2H home defeats to Al-Qadisiyah FC. The away side have been efficient in the final third with 1.8 goals per match and 9.2 shots, and their tendency to score early (five first-half goals in five games) contrasts with Al Shabab's heavier second-half output. Neither side has shown a strong set-piece or disciplinary trend, with cards and corners near league averages.
The model expects a contest defined by attacking intent and moments of transition. Al-Qadisiyah FC's higher shot volume and recent away success in this matchup tip the balance slightly in their favour, with a projected 2-1 away win reflecting both teams' goal rates and the H2H trend towards high-scoring encounters.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Qadisiyah FC have scored first in three of their last five matches, with five first-half goals in that span.
- 2The last two head-to-heads at Al Shabab have both ended 2-3 to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- 3Al Shabab's last five have averaged just 2.4 shots on target per game, well below the away side's 2.8.
Who do you think wins: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
Al-Qadisiyah FC have averaged 1.8 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded over their last five, and have won four of the last ten head-to-heads away to Al Shabab. The model assigns them a 39% win probability, slightly above what the market typically gives for a road side in a balanced H2H.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recent H2H meetings have produced at least three goals in four of the last five, and both teams' last five averages (2.0 and 1.8 scored per game) point to a goal environment above league average.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction
Both teams enter the new campaign with strong recent attacking numbers, but Al-Qadisiyah FC have shown a sharper edge in both conversion and defensive solidity over the last five matches. Al Shabab's home form is buoyed by three straight wins in pre-season, but their concession rate and recent H2H record against this opponent signal vulnerability. The statistical matchup tilts towards goals: Al Shabab average 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per match in their last five, while Al-Qadisiyah FC post 1.8 for and only 0.6 against. The away side's shot volume (9.2 per game) and ability to score early (five first-half goals in five) contrast with Al Shabab's heavier second-half output, suggesting a game shaped by momentum swings. Corners and cards rates are moderate, with neither side showing a strong set-piece or disciplinary trend. The model expects Al-Qadisiyah FC's more balanced attack and recent away H2H success to edge a high-variance contest. With both sides trending over 2.5 goals and a history of away wins in this fixture, a 2-1 scoreline for the visitors is the statistical baseline.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Al-Qadisiyah FC have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over their last five matches.
- →Al Shabab's last five have produced 2.0 goals scored per game, but only two clean sheets.
Match Context
- →The last five H2H meetings at this ground have seen the away side win three times.
🚩 Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Al Shabab and 6.8 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, for an expected total of 12.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (82%). Over 8.5: 89% · Over 10.5: 73%.
How Al Shabab and Al-Qadisiyah FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al Shabablast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Qadisiyah FClast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al Shabab come in on a three-match winning streak in pre-season, finding the net three times in each of their last two friendlies. Al-Qadisiyah FC's last five include three straight league wins to close last season, a 5-1 away rout at Al-Ittihad FC, and a pair of low-scoring pre-season outings. Both sides have shown attacking promise but the visitors have paired it with a tighter defensive record.
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
The last ten meetings are split evenly, with four wins apiece and two draws, but Al-Qadisiyah FC have claimed back-to-back 3-2 away wins in Riyadh. Only two of the last ten have ended scoreless at the break, and recent matchups have trended high-scoring.
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Al Shabab wins
2
Draws
5
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so model-derived value cannot be quantified. The model's strongest stance is a slight lean to the away win and over 2.5 goals, both backed by recent scoring rates and H2H trends. Any edge should be reassessed when market prices are posted.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- ⚠️No league matches played yet this season; all averages are from pre-season and late prior campaign.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Pre-season friendlies may not reflect competitive intensity or final lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al Shabab 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Qadisiyah FC are narrowly favoured to take three points, with the 2-1 away win the most probable outcome based on both recent scoring rates and a strong H2H trend for away victories. The single strongest data point is Al-Qadisiyah FC's 1.8 goals scored per game over their last five, paired with back-to-back 3-2 away wins in this fixture. The main risk is that pre-season form flatters both attacks and underestimates defensive improvements, leading to a lower-scoring draw.
Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: Common Questions
Who will win Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 39% chance of victory, with Al Shabab at 28% and the draw at 33%. Recent H2H results and the visitors' higher goal output give them a statistical edge.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Both teams to score is rated at 57%, with each side averaging at least 1.8 goals scored in their last five matches and only two clean sheets apiece in that period.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Over 2.5 goals is given a 54% probability by the model, supported by both teams' recent averages (2.0 and 1.8 goals scored per game) and a run of high-scoring H2H meetings.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 6 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.