Alverca vs Casa Pia Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Alverca
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Casa Pia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Alverca Win
Match Result
7.2/10Alverca and Casa Pia Share Spoils After Fierce 1-1 Draw
Alverca and Casa Pia played out a competitive 1-1 draw at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, with both sides showing moments of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. Casa Pia struck first in the 36th minute, capitalizing on a spell of pressure, but Alverca responded strongly after the break, leveling the score in the 66th minute. The hosts dominated possession with 56% and registered 15 shots (five on target), but found Casa Pia’s defense and goalkeeper P. Sequeira tough to breach. Casa Pia, meanwhile, were clinical on the counter, managing 11 shots (four on target) and holding firm under late pressure. Both teams had periods of ascendancy, but neither could convert their chances into a match-winning goal.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
36' — Goal
Henrique Araújo puts Casa Pia ahead after a swift attacking move.
66' — Goal
Figueiredo levels for Alverca, finishing off a well-worked team move.
41' — Yellow Card
Alverca’s Ian Luccas booked for a tactical foul in midfield.
54' — Yellow Card
Casa Pia’s Geraldes shown yellow for a late challenge.
78' — Yellow Card
Alverca’s Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques cautioned for dissent.
Alverca
Alverca started brightly, controlling the tempo and dictating play with a 3-4-3 setup that allowed them to dominate possession and create chances, especially from wide areas. Despite conceding first, they showed resilience to fight back and equalize in the second half. However, their inability to convert more of their nine corners and 15 shots into goals ultimately cost them the win. Defensively, Alverca were mostly solid, but lapses in concentration led to Casa Pia’s opener. Their midfield worked tirelessly, and the attacking trio looked lively, but a lack of clinical finishing proved frustrating.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Casa Pia
Casa Pia set up in a 4-3-3 formation, looking to absorb pressure and hit Alverca on the break. Their tactical discipline paid off with a well-taken goal in the 36th minute, and they remained compact for much of the match, frustrating the hosts with organized defending. While Casa Pia were out-possessed, they made the most of their opportunities, forcing Alverca’s defense into uncomfortable moments and nearly snatching a winner late on. The backline, marshaled by Kaly and David Sousa, held firm under sustained pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Alverca’s 3-4-3 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield and stretch Casa Pia’s back four, especially through the wingbacks. Their high possession (56%) and nine corners reflected their territorial advantage, but they struggled to break down Casa Pia’s compact defensive lines in open play. Casa Pia’s 4-3-3 was pragmatic, focusing on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their midfield trio provided cover for the defense while supporting the front three on the break. Both teams relied on width, but Casa Pia’s ability to stay organized under pressure was key to securing a point.
Turning Point
Figueiredo’s equalizer in the 66th minute shifted momentum back to Alverca and ensured a tense finish.
Man of the Match
Figueiredo
Scored the vital equalizer and was a constant threat in attack, keeping Casa Pia’s defense on alert.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: Match Preview
Alverca enter this match in 8th place, having picked up 11 points from nine games, but their recent form is trending positively with three wins in their last five (LWWWL). Their attack has come alive lately, netting nine goals in that span, and they have shown the ability to create chances in volume, averaging 12.6 shots per game. Casa Pia, sitting 17th with just seven points from ten games, have struggled for consistency and have lost seven times already, though their two league wins have come away from home.
The statistical matchup leans towards a moderate goal environment. Alverca's attack (1.8 goals per game last five) faces a Casa Pia defence that concedes 1.9 per game on the season, but only 0.8 per game over the last five, indicating recent improvement. Casa Pia's attack remains limited (0.5 goals per game season average), but they have managed four goals in five away matches, suggesting a slightly more adventurous approach on the road. Alverca's home record is not dominant (W1 D2 L2), but Casa Pia's away form (W2 D1 L2) is notably better than their home results, where they've shipped 15 of their 19 goals conceded.
The model expects Alverca's higher attacking output and home advantage to be decisive, but Casa Pia's improved away defending could keep the match competitive. With both teams showing a tendency for low-scoring first halves (Alverca six first-half goals in last five, Casa Pia just one), a cagey opening is likely before Alverca's shot volume and offensive pressure tell in the second half.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Alverca vs Casa Pia that most previews miss.
- 1Casa Pia have conceded just four goals in five away matches, compared to 15 in five home games.
- 2Alverca's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 55.56% of league games this season.
- 3All three recent head-to-heads have produced at least three goals, with no draws.
Who do you think wins: Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Alverca vs Casa Pia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Alverca Win
Alverca's attack is averaging 1.44 goals per game this season and 1.8 over the last five, while Casa Pia have conceded 1.9 per game on the season. The home side's underlying shot volume (12.6 per match last five) and Casa Pia's league-worst defensive record away from home (4 goals conceded in 5 away, but 19 overall) tilt the balance.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Alverca matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 55.56% of league games, and their last five average 2.8 total goals. Casa Pia's away defence is less porous than at home, but their overall season games see 2.4 goals per match, with Alverca's attack likely to push the total higher.
Read more ↓
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The Case For This Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction
Alverca approach this fixture in mid-table, sitting 8th with 11 points from 9 games, and a recent form string of LWWWL. Their attack has found rhythm lately, averaging 1.8 goals per game in the last five, and they have taken three wins in that stretch. Casa Pia, by contrast, are mired in 17th with just 7 points from 10 games, and have lost seven times already, including a heavy 0-7 home defeat to Benfica earlier in the campaign. Statistically, the matchup is defined by Alverca's above-average shot and goal output (12.6 shots, 4.2 on target per game last five) against a Casa Pia defence that concedes 1.9 goals per match on the season and has kept only two clean sheets in their last five. Casa Pia's attack remains blunt, with only 0.5 goals per game on the season, though they have shown slight improvement away from home (four goals in five away matches). Notably, Alverca's home record is mixed (W1 D2 L2), but Casa Pia's away record is relatively better than their disastrous home form. Given the underlying rates, the model expects Alverca to control proceedings, generating more chances and likely to score multiple times. Casa Pia's improved away defending and Alverca's tendency to fade in the second half (just three second-half goals in last five) suggest the visitors could keep it competitive for a while, but the home attack's consistency should prove decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Alverca average 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game this season.
- →Casa Pia have the league's second-worst defensive record (1.9 conceded per game), but have conceded just four in five away matches.
Match Context
- →Alverca have won two of the last three head-to-heads, including a 3-1 home win in April.
🚩 Alverca vs Casa Pia Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Alverca and 4.8 for Casa Pia, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Alverca and Casa Pia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Alverca vs Casa Pia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Alvercalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Casa Pialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Alverca have won three of their last five, scoring nine goals in that stretch and showing improved attacking cohesion. Casa Pia, meanwhile, have alternated wins and losses in their last five, but remain near the foot of the table due to a porous defence and a blunt attack, with only five goals scored in ten league games.
Alverca vs Casa Pia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Alverca vs Casa Pia
Alverca have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning two of the last three meetings, including a 3-1 home win in April 2026. All three encounters have seen at least three goals, suggesting an open dynamic when these sides meet.
Alverca vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
2
Alverca wins
0
Draws
1
Casa Pia wins
Things to Watch: Alverca vs Casa Pia
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Casa Pia's away defensive record is significantly better than their home record, introducing variance.
- ⚠️Small sample size for head-to-head (only three competitive meetings).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Alverca 2–1 Casa PiaThe model projects a 2-1 win for Alverca, primarily driven by their superior attacking output (1.8 goals per game last five) and Casa Pia's season-long defensive frailty (1.9 conceded per match). The main risk is Casa Pia's improved away defensive record, which could suppress Alverca's scoring and keep the contest closer than the underlying rates suggest.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: Common Questions
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca are favoured with a 48% probability of victory, compared to 20% for Casa Pia and 32% for the draw. The home side's stronger attack and Casa Pia's defensive struggles underpin this edge.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The model gives a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, supported by Alverca's matches going over that line in 56% of league games and all three recent head-to-heads producing at least three goals.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Both teams to score is rated almost even, with 49% for 'yes' and 51% for 'no'. Alverca have failed to score only once in their last five, while Casa Pia's attack is less reliable but has found the net in two of their last three away league matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Alverca vs Casa Pia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.