AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
AZ Alkmaar
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.3/10AZ Alkmaar Edge Hapoel Beer Sheva in Europa League Thriller
AZ Alkmaar secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Hapoel Beer Sheva at the AFAS Stadion, taking a crucial step forward in their UEFA Europa League campaign. The Dutch side dominated possession with 58% and peppered the visitors’ goal with 15 shots, 7 of which were on target, but were made to sweat after Hapoel Beer Sheva responded quickly to falling behind early in the second half. After a goalless first half, the match burst into life after the break. AZ’s attacking intent was rewarded in the 49th minute, but Hapoel Beer Sheva struck back just six minutes later to level the score. The hosts, however, showed resilience and regained the lead in the 77th minute, holding on despite a flurry of late fouls and bookings from both sides. The result leaves AZ Alkmaar well-placed in their group, while Hapoel Beer Sheva will rue their limited attacking output and inability to capitalize on their equalizer.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
49' — Goal
B. Kovacs scores for AZ Alkmaar to give the hosts a 1-0 lead.
55' — Goal
I. Zlatanović equalizes for Hapoel Beer Sheva, finishing off a rare attacking move.
77' — Goal
AZ Alkmaar restore their lead with a well-worked goal, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up four yellow cards each as the match grows increasingly physical in the second half.
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar controlled much of the game, dictating play with 58% possession and a clear attacking edge. Their 15 total shots, including 7 on target, reflected their intent to press forward and break down the Hapoel defense. The midfield duo of D. Kwakman and P. Koopmeiners provided stability and creativity, while the back line, marshaled by W. Hoedt, limited Hapoel’s chances. Despite conceding a quick equalizer after their opener, AZ responded positively, regaining the lead and managing the game well in the closing stages. Four yellow cards highlighted their combative approach, especially as they sought to protect their advantage late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva struggled to impose themselves, managing just 42% possession and 6 shots (4 on target). Their 4-3-3 setup was largely reactive, with the midfield trio often overrun by AZ’s numbers. However, they showed character to equalize swiftly after falling behind, with I. Zlatanović leading the line and converting their best opportunity. Defensively, Hapoel Beer Sheva were stretched by AZ’s movement and conceded twice, though goalkeeper O. Marciano made several key interventions to keep the scoreline respectable. The visitors’ physical approach was evident in their 17 fouls and 4 yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
AZ Alkmaar lined up in a 4-2-3-1, using their double pivot to control the midfield and build attacks patiently. Their full-backs pushed high, pinning Hapoel Beer Sheva’s wingers deep and allowing the trio behind the striker to find pockets of space. The home side’s pressing forced turnovers, and they utilized width and quick interchanges to stretch the opposition. Hapoel Beer Sheva’s 4-3-3 was more conservative, with the midfield often dropping deep to shield the back four. Their attacking threat was largely restricted to counter-attacks and set pieces, as they struggled to maintain possession or create sustained pressure. Substitutions in the second half saw both sides inject fresh legs, but neither team shifted formation dramatically.
Turning Point
AZ Alkmaar’s second goal in the 77th minute, which restored their lead and ultimately decided the contest.
Man of the Match
B. Kovacs
Scored the crucial opening goal and was a constant threat in attack for AZ Alkmaar.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: Match Preview
AZ Alkmaar return to European action seeking to rebound from a narrow 0-1 defeat at Sunderland in their group opener. Domestically, AZ have shown attacking intent with 17+ shots in each of their last three Eredivisie matches, but their Europa League campaign is yet to ignite. Hapoel Beer Sheva, meanwhile, arrive off a goalless draw with Dinamo Zagreb and sit slightly higher in the group, but their own recent matches have been low-scoring, with only one of their last five producing more than two goals.
The tactical shape points to AZ controlling territory—averaging 58% possession and 6.4 corners per match across their last five—while Hapoel Beer Sheva focus on defensive compactness, evidenced by three clean sheets in that same span. AZ's main challenge is converting their shot volume into goals, while Hapoel's attack has rarely threatened in open play, averaging just 3.4 shots on target per game. Cards could play a role, with Hapoel averaging 2.8 yellows per match, and both sides combine for over 10 corners per game, suggesting set pieces may offer the best route to goal.
Given both teams' Europa League openers finished under 2.5 goals and their recent scoring rates are modest, the model expects a low-scoring contest. AZ's home advantage and higher shot output tip the balance, but with both teams struggling for a cutting edge, a single goal could decide it.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
35%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva that most previews miss.
- 1AZ Alkmaar's last five matches average 17.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target, but only 2.0 goals scored per game.
- 2Hapoel Beer Sheva have kept three clean sheets in their last five, conceding just 1.2 goals per match.
- 3Both sides have seen under 2.5 goals in their only Europa League group game so far.
Who do you think wins: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have seen under 2.5 goals in their only Europa League group matches so far, and their last five match averages are 2.2 (AZ) and 2.4 (Hapoel) total goals per game, with both teams averaging just 1.2 goals scored in that span.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
AZ have kept only one clean sheet in their last five, but Hapoel Beer Sheva have failed to score in one of their last five and have only managed more than one goal once in that stretch; the model projects a low-scoring, one-sided scoreline.
Read more ↓
More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction
Statistically, this Europa League fixture profiles as a low-event contest, with both AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva showing modest attacking output and strong tendencies towards matches with under 2.5 goals. AZ's home shot volume (17.2 per game in the last five) stands out, but conversion has lagged, while Hapoel's defensive record is solid but not impenetrable. The model expects a narrow home win, with the likeliest path being AZ's territorial dominance eventually breaking through a compact Hapoel side.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →AZ Alkmaar average 17.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game over their last five, but only 2.0 goals scored on average.
- →Both teams' only Europa League group matches finished under 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Hapoel Beer Sheva have kept three clean sheets in their last five, conceding just 1.2 goals per game.
🚩 AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for AZ Alkmaar and 4.5 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AZ Alkmaarlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hapoel Beer Shevalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AZ Alkmaar come in with a 'WLDWW' form string, having won three of their last five across all competitions, but their Europa League group campaign started with a 0-1 defeat. Hapoel Beer Sheva's 'WDWLD' run includes three clean sheets and just one loss, but they have also found goals hard to come by, failing to score in one of their last five and averaging 1.2 goals per match.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 60% avg
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
There is no head-to-head data available for these teams, so the model relies on recent form and season rates to project the matchup.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
AZ Alkmaar wins
0
Draws
0
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no explicit value edges can be highlighted. The model's strongest statistical lean is towards under 2.5 goals and a low-scoring home win, so if market odds on these outcomes are generous, they would represent the clearest value based on the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for these teams, increasing uncertainty around matchup-specific dynamics.
- ⚠️Both sides' Europa League group sample size is just one match, so rates may not be fully representative.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Hapoel Beer ShevaAZ Alkmaar are projected to edge a low-scoring contest, with a 1-0 scoreline the most probable outcome. The single strongest data point is the combined under 2.5 goals rate in both teams' Europa League openers and their recent scoring averages. The main risk is an early goal opening up the game, but the underlying rates point to a cautious, closely contested match.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: Common Questions
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar are favoured with a 43% probability of victory, while the draw stands at 34% and Hapoel Beer Sheva's win chance is 23%. The model leans towards a narrow home win based on shot and possession rates.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 69%, with both teams' only Europa League group matches finishing below this line and their last five matches averaging just over two goals apiece.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at just 32%, with 'No' the more likely outcome. Hapoel Beer Sheva have kept three clean sheets in their last five, and AZ have failed to score only once in that span.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.