Bahia vs Mirassol Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Bahia
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Mirassol
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Bahia Edge Past Mirassol with Narrow 1-0 Win at Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia claimed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Mirassol at Arena Fonte Nova, thanks to a decisive first-half goal in the 38th minute. In a match where both sides struggled to convert their chances, Bahia's attacking intent paid off just before the break, and they managed to hold on despite Mirassol's spirited response in the second half. The hosts dominated possession with 53% and registered 16 shots, but could only muster two on target—mirrored by Mirassol's two shots on target from 10 attempts. The match was fiercely contested, with a total of five yellow cards shown, as Bahia's defensive resilience and disciplined midfield play ultimately secured all three points.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
38' — Goal
A. Véliz scores the only goal of the match, finishing off a well-worked move to put Bahia ahead.
45' — Yellow Card
Mirassol receive their first yellow card as tempers flare before halftime.
60' — Yellow Card
Another Mirassol player booked as they increase their physicality in search of an equalizer.
75' — Yellow Card
Bahia pick up their only yellow card of the match for a tactical foul to halt a Mirassol counter.
85' — Yellow Card
Mirassol's frustrations boil over with a fourth booking late on.
Bahia
Bahia were the more proactive side, controlling the tempo and creating more opportunities, albeit with a lack of clinical finishing. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed them to dominate midfield exchanges, and their backline stood firm to repel Mirassol's late advances. The lone goal in the 38th minute proved enough, as Bahia managed the game well in the closing stages, absorbing pressure and maintaining composure despite Mirassol's attempts to claw back into the contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Mirassol
Mirassol showed resilience and organization, particularly after falling behind, but struggled to create clear-cut chances. Their 4-3-3 setup matched Bahia's shape but lacked the same attacking fluidity. Despite committing 16 fouls and picking up four yellow cards, Mirassol's defense largely limited Bahia's quality chances, but their own attack was stifled, managing just two shots on target. The visitors pushed forward in the second half but were unable to breach Bahia's defense.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-3-3 formation, leading to a congested midfield battle where Bahia's trio of Jean Lucas, Caio Alexandre, and Rodrigo Nestor gained the upper hand. Bahia pressed high early on, forcing Mirassol into hurried clearances, and utilized their full-backs to provide width. Mirassol, meanwhile, sat deeper and looked to hit on the break, but their front three were largely isolated due to Bahia's pressing and compact shape. Set pieces offered little joy for either side, with Bahia winning six corners but failing to capitalize. Mirassol's tactical response after conceding was to increase their physicality and push their full-backs higher, but Bahia's disciplined defensive block held firm, and late substitutions shored up their midfield to see out the result.
Turning Point
A. Véliz's goal in the 38th minute gave Bahia the lead and allowed them to dictate the game's tempo from then on.
Man of the Match
A. Véliz
Scored the decisive goal and was a constant threat in attack, making the difference in a tight contest.
Bahia vs Mirassol: Match Preview
Bahia return to Arena Fonte Nova in strong form, having won four of their last five league matches and sitting fifth in Serie A. Their home record is robust, with just two defeats in 14 and a +8 goal differential. Mirassol, meanwhile, occupy 15th and remain just above the relegation zone, hampered by a poor away record that includes only two wins in 13 and a -9 overall goal difference. The stakes are clear: Bahia are pushing for continental qualification, while Mirassol need points to avoid being dragged into the bottom four.
The statistical matchup points to a high-scoring contest. Bahia’s attack has been potent recently, averaging 2.2 goals and 15.8 shots per game over the last five, while Mirassol’s defence has managed only two clean sheets in that span and concedes 1.62 per away match across the season. Both teams’ matches clear the 2.5 goal mark in over half of fixtures, and Bahia’s first-half scoring (seven goals in five) suggests they often start fast. Corners and set pieces could be decisive, with both sides averaging over five corners per game.
Modelling the likely outcome, Bahia’s offensive rates and home solidity should tip the balance. Mirassol have shown flashes in attack, but their away defensive record and low clean sheet rate (7.14%) leave them exposed. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest result, with Bahia’s early pressure and Mirassol’s late push both factored in.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bahia vs Mirassol Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bahia vs Mirassol that most previews miss.
- 1Bahia have scored in every one of their last five matches, averaging 2.2 goals per game in that span.
- 2Mirassol have failed to keep a clean sheet in 92.86% of their away matches this season.
- 3The last two H2H meetings have produced three or more goals, with both teams scoring in both games.
Who do you think wins: Bahia vs Mirassol?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bahia vs Mirassol(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides average above 1.5 goals scored/conceded per game, and 53.57% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season, with Bahia's last five averaging 3.6 total goals.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Bahia Win
Bahia have lost only twice at home all season (6W, 6D, 2L), while Mirassol have won just 2 of 13 away, conceding 1.62 per away game.
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Bahia vs Mirassol Prediction
This fixture matches a Bahia side with the league’s fifth-best record and strong home output against a Mirassol team whose away form has been a persistent weakness. Bahia are coming off four wins in five and average 1.57 points per home game, while Mirassol’s away record stands at just two wins from 13 with a -9 goal difference overall. Statistically, the game profiles as high-event: both teams’ matches have cleared the 2.5 goal line in over half their games (53.57%), and Bahia’s last five have averaged 3.6 total goals. Bahia’s attack is generating 15.8 shots and 6.4 on target per match recently, and Mirassol’s defence has managed just two clean sheets in their last five. Set pieces may also feature, with both sides combining for over 11 corners per game on recent averages. The most likely scenario is Bahia’s attack exploiting Mirassol’s away defensive record, particularly in the first half where Bahia have scored seven of their last eleven goals. Mirassol can threaten in transition but are likely to concede the initiative, leading to a predicted 2-1 home win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Mirassol have just two away wins in 13, conceding 1.62 goals per away match.
Match Context
- →Bahia average 1.57 points per home game and have lost only twice at Arena Fonte Nova.
- →Both teams’ matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 53.57% of fixtures this season.
🚩 Bahia vs Mirassol Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Bahia and 4 for Mirassol, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Bahia and Mirassol Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bahia vs Mirassol Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bahialast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mirassollast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bahia approach this match with momentum, having won four of their last five and scoring at least twice in each of those victories. Mirassol have also improved, taking seven points from their last four league games, but their away form remains a concern with only two wins from 13 on the road.
Bahia vs Mirassol — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Bahia vs Mirassol
The brief head-to-head record is balanced: each side has one win and one draw from three meetings, with both teams scoring in the last two encounters. Bahia won the reverse fixture 2-1 away in April, suggesting a competitive matchup with a slight edge to the home side.
Bahia vs Mirassol Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Bahia wins
1
Draws
1
Mirassol wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bahia vs Mirassol
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value edges cannot be calculated. The model’s strongest signals are on Bahia’s home win probability and the over 2.5 goals market, both supported by underlying rates. Should odds become available, these would be the markets to monitor for value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bahia vs Mirassol
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of modelling, so value calculations are omitted.
- ⚠️Mirassol’s recent uptick in attack (2+ goals in three of last five) could make them more dangerous than their season-long away scoring rate suggests.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension data for either side, but lineups are not yet confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bahia 2–1 MirassolBahia are favoured to win 2-1, underpinned by their strong home record (just two losses in 14) and Mirassol’s persistently weak away defence (1.62 conceded per away game). The main risk is Mirassol’s recent improvement in attack, which could see them grab more than one goal if Bahia’s defence lapses.
Bahia vs Mirassol: Common Questions
Who will win Bahia vs Mirassol?
Bahia are projected as 51% likely winners, with Mirassol at 19% and the draw at 30%. Bahia’s home record and Mirassol’s away struggles drive this edge.
Will Bahia vs Mirassol be over or under 2.5 goals?
There is a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals, based on both teams’ season rates (53.57%) and Bahia’s recent attacking output (2.2 goals per game in last five).
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Mirassol?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, as Bahia have conceded in four of their last five and Mirassol have scored in four of their last five league games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bahia vs Mirassol: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.