Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions
Super League · China
Beijing Guoan
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Beijing Guoan Win
Match Result
6.8/10Late Zhang Yuning Strike Seals Narrow Win for Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan edged past Chongqing Tongliang Long with a slender 1-0 victory at the Beijing Workers' Stadium, thanks to a late goal from Zhang Yuning in the 80th minute. The hosts dominated possession from the outset, controlling 67% of the ball and piling on pressure with 11 shots and 9 corners, but struggled to break down a resolute Chongqing defense set up in a deep 5-4-1 formation. Despite their dominance, Beijing Guoan found clear chances hard to come by, with only two of their efforts hitting the target. Chongqing Tongliang Long, meanwhile, offered little going forward, failing to register a single shot on target and rarely threatening on the break. Ultimately, persistence paid off for the home side as Zhang Yuning finally found the breakthrough, ensuring all three points stayed in the capital.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
80' — Goal
Zhang Yuning breaks the deadlock with a late finish, finally breaching Chongqing's defensive wall.
67' — Yellow Card
Chongqing's Zhixiong Zhang booked for a tactical foul, underlining the visitors' defensive approach.
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan controlled proceedings with confident possession play and territorial dominance, but their attacking efforts were repeatedly thwarted by Chongqing's defensive block. The midfield quartet, orchestrated by Zhang Xizhe and ably supported by Yongjing Cao and Lin Liangming, kept the ball moving but struggled to create clear-cut chances until late on. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, with Hou Sen enjoying a quiet afternoon in goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long set up defensively in a 5-4-1, focusing on containment and compactness. Their disciplined shape frustrated Beijing for long spells, with Michael Ngadeu and Lucão marshalling the backline effectively. However, their attacking ambition was minimal, producing only three shots and none on target, and they struggled to relieve pressure or mount meaningful counterattacks.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Beijing Guoan lined up in a classic 4-4-2, looking to stretch Chongqing's compact 5-4-1 with width and patient build-up. Their full-backs pushed high, and the midfield rotated well to maintain pressure, but Chongqing's deep block forced most attacks into wide areas and limited space between the lines. Set pieces were a key outlet, with 9 corners reflecting Beijing's territorial dominance, but Chongqing defended these resolutely until the late breakthrough. The visitors rarely committed numbers forward, focusing on maintaining shape and disrupting Beijing's rhythm, but this came at the cost of any attacking threat.
Turning Point
Zhang Yuning's 80th-minute goal, finally capitalizing on Beijing's sustained pressure, shifted the match decisively in the hosts' favor.
Man of the Match
Zhang Yuning
Provided the crucial breakthrough with his late goal, separating two otherwise evenly-matched defensive units.
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Match Preview
Beijing Guoan arrive at the Workers' Stadium in the midst of their strongest run of the campaign, having collected four wins and a draw from their last five matches across all competitions. Their attack has found another gear, with 11 goals in that period, and the side has not failed to score since early September. Sitting third in the table and just five points off the summit, Guoan’s late surge has them firmly in the title conversation, while Chongqing Tongliang Long’s recent form (one win in five) has left them marooned in mid-table with little left to play for.
Statistically, the home side’s attacking metrics are among the league’s best over the last month: 12.4 shots per game, 5 on target, and an average of 2.2 goals scored. Their possession dominance (59.4%) and three clean sheets in five underline a side in control at both ends. Chongqing Tongliang Long, meanwhile, have struggled to impose themselves away from home, managing just three away wins all season and averaging only 1 goal per game in their last five. Both teams are active at set pieces, each averaging over five corners per match, but Guoan’s sharper edge in the final third is likely to be the difference.
With momentum on their side and a clear attacking threat, Beijing Guoan are expected to dictate the tempo and create the better chances. Chongqing’s recent resilience means they could keep things tight for spells, but their lack of consistent end product and tendency to concede on the road should tilt the balance towards the hosts. The model points to a 2-1 home win, with Guoan’s form and firepower proving decisive.
How Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Beijing Guoanlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Beijing Guoan are on a tear, collecting four wins and a draw in their last five matches, with 11 goals scored and three clean sheets. Their attacking rhythm and defensive solidity have both improved markedly since the start of October. Chongqing Tongliang Long, meanwhile, have just one win in five and have struggled to find consistency, with only five goals scored and a single clean sheet in that span.
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Dominant in possession — 59% avg
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long that most previews miss.
- 1Beijing Guoan have scored eight of their last eleven goals in the second half, highlighting a strong finishing trend.
- 2Chongqing Tongliang Long’s last five matches have averaged just 2.2 total goals, well below the league average, but their only win in that stretch came with a clean sheet.
- 3Both sides average over five corners per game in their last five matches, suggesting set pieces could yield opportunities.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction
Beijing Guoan approach this clash riding a wave of momentum, having taken 13 points from their last five fixtures and scoring at least once in every game. Chongqing Tongliang Long, by contrast, have managed just one win in their last five league outings and continue to struggle for attacking consistency, especially away from home. The hosts’ recent form surge has them firmly in the hunt for a top-three finish, while the visitors are drifting in mid-table, with little sign of a late-season charge. The tactical battle tilts towards Beijing Guoan’s fluid attack, which has averaged 12.4 shots and 2.2 goals per game over the last five matches. Their ability to control possession (59.4% average) and create from wide areas has been complemented by a defence that’s kept three clean sheets in that stretch. Chongqing Tongliang Long’s away record remains patchy, with just three wins in 14 on the road and a recent average of only 1 goal scored per game. Set pieces may play a role, as both sides average over five corners per match, but the hosts’ sharper edge in both penalty areas is likely to prove decisive. The model expects Beijing Guoan to assert themselves early, leveraging their attacking rhythm and home advantage. Chongqing Tongliang Long are likely to be competitive for spells, but their recent lack of cutting edge and tendency to fade in the second half should allow Guoan to pull clear. A 2-1 home win is forecast, with the home side’s current momentum and superior shot creation the key drivers.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and a draw, scoring 11 goals and conceding just five.
- →Beijing Guoan have kept three clean sheets in their last five, while Chongqing have failed to score in one and conceded in four.
Match Context
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long have only one win in their last five league matches and have scored just five goals in that period.
Where the Model Sees Value: Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Beijing Guoan Win
Beijing Guoan have won four of their last five matches and are averaging 2.2 goals per game in that stretch, while Chongqing Tongliang Long have just one win in their last five and concede 1.2 per game recently. The home side’s attacking momentum and clean sheet rate (three in five) gives them a clear edge.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Beijing Guoan’s last five matches have averaged 3.2 total goals, and their season over 2.5 rate is 62%. Chongqing Tongliang Long’s defence has allowed at least one goal in four of their last five, suggesting a decent chance for multiple goals.
Read more ↓
First Half Result: Beijing Guoan Win
Beijing Guoan have scored in the first half in three of their last five matches and tend to start strongly at home, while Chongqing Tongliang Long have conceded first-half goals in two of their last three away games.
Read more ↓
More Super League Predictions
🚩 Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Beijing Guoan and 6 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
What History Says: Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
The only previous meeting between these sides this season ended in a 3-2 win for Beijing Guoan away from home, suggesting the potential for goals on both sides. However, with such a limited H2H history, it’s difficult to draw strong conclusions. The prior match’s five-goal haul does hint at attacking intent from both teams.
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Beijing Guoan wins
0
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
Things to Watch: Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- ⚠️Only one previous head-to-head meeting between these sides limits trend analysis.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of prediction, so value edge calculations are unavailable.
- ⚠️Chongqing Tongliang Long have shown some resilience with three draws in their last five, so a low-scoring draw is not out of the question.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Beijing Guoan 2–1 Chongqing Tongliang LongBeijing Guoan’s recent surge—four wins and a draw, with 2.2 goals per game—makes them clear favourites to claim all three points, and the model forecasts a 2-1 home win. The single strongest data point is Guoan’s ability to sustain attacking pressure and convert chances, evidenced by their shot and goal numbers. The most plausible way this prediction goes wrong is if Chongqing Tongliang Long’s defensive discipline holds up and Guoan’s finishing cools off, leading to a low-scoring draw.
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: Common Questions
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
The model gives Beijing Guoan a 55% chance of victory, reflecting their four wins in the last five matches and strong home record. Chongqing Tongliang Long have just a 17% win probability, with the draw at 28%.
Will Beijing Guoan’s winning streak continue?
Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last five and have scored in every one of those games, making them strong favourites to extend their run. Their recent attacking output (2.2 goals per game) and three clean sheets in five support their momentum.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for this match?
There’s a 58% model probability for over 2.5 goals, with Beijing Guoan’s matches averaging 3.2 goals in their last five and a season-long 62% over 2.5 rate. Chongqing’s recent games have been tighter, but the hosts’ attack could push this over the line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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