Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye Predictions
Super League · China
Hangzhou Greentown
Full Time
4 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Henan Jianye
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
8.2/10Hangzhou Greentown Cruise Past Henan Jianye with Emphatic 4-0 Victory
Hangzhou Greentown delivered a statement performance at the Hangzhou Dragon Stadium, dismantling Henan Jianye 4-0 in a dominant display. The hosts struck twice before the break, with a relentless attacking intent that saw them rack up 19 shots and 8 on target. The second half brought more of the same, as Hangzhou added two further goals to seal a comprehensive win. Despite enjoying a slight edge in possession (52%), Henan Jianye struggled to convert their time on the ball into meaningful chances, managing just 4 shots on target from 13 attempts. Hangzhou's clinical finishing and defensive solidity ensured there was no way back for the visitors, who also picked up two yellow cards in a frustrating afternoon.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
4 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
32' — Goal
Felippe Cardoso opens the scoring for Hangzhou Greentown, finishing a slick team move.
40' — Goal
Hangzhou double their lead, capitalizing on Henan's defensive lapse.
54' — Goal
A third goal early in the second half puts the result beyond doubt.
80' — Goal
Hangzhou cap off their dominant display with a fourth goal.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Henan Jianye pick up two yellow cards as frustration mounts.
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown were ruthless in attack and disciplined at the back, controlling the game with sharp passing and incisive movement. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to overload the midfield and exploit wide areas, resulting in a barrage of chances and four well-taken goals. The midfield trio orchestrated play superbly, while the defensive line kept Henan at bay throughout. The hosts' ability to transition quickly from defense to attack was a constant threat, and their pressing forced Henan into errors. Eight corners and 19 total shots underscored their attacking intent, while not conceding a single card highlighted their composure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye's afternoon in Hangzhou was one to forget, as they struggled to cope with the hosts' intensity and attacking variety. Despite holding 52% possession, their build-up play lacked penetration and they rarely threatened Bo Zhao's goal, registering just 4 shots on target. The midfield was often overrun, and defensive lapses proved costly. Henan's frustration was evident as they collected two yellow cards, and their inability to defend set pieces or handle Hangzhou's width contributed to their downfall. Attempts to change the momentum through substitutions were ineffective against a rampant home side.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Hangzhou Greentown executed their game plan with far greater efficiency. Their attacking midfielders frequently found space between the lines, stretching Henan's defense and creating overloads in wide areas. Hangzhou's pressing forced turnovers high up the pitch, leading to quick transitions and sustained pressure. Henan Jianye's attempt to control possession was undermined by a lack of forward movement and insufficient support for their lone striker, Bruno Nazário. Their defensive block was breached repeatedly, particularly on set pieces and during rapid Hangzhou attacks. Substitutions failed to alter the tactical balance, as Hangzhou maintained control until the final whistle.
Turning Point
Cardoso's opener in the 32nd minute broke the deadlock and set the tone for Hangzhou's dominance.
Man of the Match
Felippe Cardoso
Scored the crucial opening goal and led the line with relentless energy, setting the platform for Hangzhou's emphatic win.
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye: Match Preview
Hangzhou Greentown enter this match sitting 10th, five points above Henan Jianye, with both teams clear of relegation but lacking upward momentum. Hangzhou's recent form is mixed (WLLWL), but they come off a 4-2 away win and have shown attacking intent at home all season. Henan, winless in their last five (LLDDD), have struggled to convert possession into points and are the league's fourth-lowest scorers.
Statistically, this is a fixture built for goals. Hangzhou's home matches average 3.71 goals, with 68.97% going over 2.5, while Henan's away games see 3.07 on average. Both teams average above 15 shots per match, but defensive numbers are weak: Hangzhou concede 1.86 per game, Henan 1.45, and clean sheets are rare. Set piece threat is moderate, with Henan averaging 6.6 corners in their last five and Hangzhou 3.6, but neither side is dominant in this area. Discipline could play a role, as both average over two yellows per match recently.
The model expects Hangzhou's home attack to edge a contest with multiple goals, projecting a 2-1 scoreline. Henan's recent inability to keep leads and Hangzhou's strong home scoring rate are decisive, but defensive lapses on both sides mean a high-scoring draw or even a late away equaliser cannot be discounted.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye that most previews miss.
- 1Hangzhou Greentown's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 11 of 16 league games this season (68.97%).
- 2Henan Jianye have drawn five of their last nine away matches, with four finishing 1-1 or 2-2.
- 3Across the last five H2H meetings, both teams have scored in four, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Who do you think wins: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average above 1.5 goals conceded per game and Hangzhou matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 68.97% of league fixtures, making a high-scoring outcome statistically likely.
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Match Result: Hangzhou Greentown Win
Hangzhou Greentown have a stronger home record (7W/3D/4L, 2.14 goals scored per home game) compared to Henan's away form and arrive with more attacking momentum.
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BTTS: Yes
Four of Hangzhou's last five have seen both teams score, and Henan have found the net in three of their last five, while both sides have low clean sheet rates (Hangzhou 13.8%, Henan 17.2%).
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye Prediction
This fixture projects as a high-scoring mid-table contest, with Hangzhou Greentown's attacking output at home (2.14 goals per game) contrasting with Henan Jianye's defensive frailty on the road (1.71 conceded per away match). Both teams are conceding well above the league average and rarely keep clean sheets, so the statistical expectation is for goals at both ends. Hangzhou's superior home form and shot volume tip the balance, but neither side is reliable defensively.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Hangzhou Greentown's home matches average 3.71 goals per game (30 for, 22 against in 14 matches).
Defence
- →Henan Jianye have failed to win in their last five (LLDDD) and concede 1.71 per away game.
- →Both teams have clean sheet rates below 18% for the season.
🚩 Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Hangzhou Greentown and 5.7 for Henan Jianye, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hangzhou Greentownlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Henan Jianyelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Hangzhou Greentown's recent form is volatile, alternating wins and losses in their last five (WLLWL), but they have scored 11 goals in that stretch. Henan Jianye are without a win in five (LLDDD), with their attack sputtering and defence conceding at key moments. Hangzhou's momentum is marginally stronger, especially at home.
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 58% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye
The head-to-head record is balanced, but recent meetings have been open, with five of the last six producing at least three goals. Both teams have found the net in four of the last five, and draws have been common. No side has dominated the fixture in recent seasons.
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Hangzhou Greentown wins
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value cannot be assessed directly. However, the model's strongest statistical edge is on the over 2.5 goals market, with both teams' matches trending well above league averages for total goals. If odds on over 2.5 are offered at anything above 1.65, this would likely represent value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge calculations.
- ⚠️Both teams' defences are inconsistent, increasing the variance of goal-related markets.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is patchy, with Hangzhou's last five including a heavy defeat and Henan drawing blanks in two of five.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hangzhou Greentown 2–1 Henan JianyeThe model favours Hangzhou Greentown 2-1, driven by their superior home scoring rate (2.14 per game) and Henan's defensive vulnerability on the road. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Hangzhou's defence, which has conceded 2.8 per game over the last five, allows Henan to capitalise and force a high-scoring draw.
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye: Common Questions
Who will win Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Hangzhou Greentown are modelled as 43% likely to win, with a 30% chance of a draw and 27% for Henan. Hangzhou's strong home attack and Henan's winless streak tip the balance.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
The model gives a 58% probability for both teams to score, supported by low clean sheet rates (Hangzhou 13.8%, Henan 17.2%) and recent H2H trends.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet in this match?
Yes, over 2.5 goals is rated at 62% probability, with Hangzhou's home games averaging 3.71 goals and 69% of their matches exceeding this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye Resources
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results