Bologna vs Torino Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Bologna
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Torino
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+19% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Late Simeone Strike Salvages Point for Torino in Bologna Stalemate
Bologna and Torino played out a tightly contested 1-1 draw at the Renato Dall'Ara, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. The hosts took an early lead through Federico Bernardeschi in the 14th minute, capitalizing on a rare foray forward. Torino, however, gradually asserted control, dominating possession and piling on pressure as the match wore on. Despite enjoying 60% of the ball and registering 14 shots to Bologna's 11, Torino struggled to break down a resolute home defence until Giovanni Simeone finally found the equalizer in the 77th minute. The final stages saw both teams push for a winner, but neither could convert their chances, leaving them to settle for a share of the spoils.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
14' — Goal
Federico Bernardeschi opens the scoring for Bologna with a well-placed finish.
77' — Goal
Giovanni Simeone levels for Torino, finishing off a sustained spell of pressure.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Torino pick up three yellow cards as their frustration grows chasing the game.
Bologna
Bologna started brightly, taking an early lead and looking dangerous in transition. However, as the match progressed, they were forced deeper by Torino's sustained possession and struggled to maintain attacking momentum. With only 1 shot on target from 11 attempts and just 40% possession, Bologna's attacking output was limited, but their defensive organization helped them withstand Torino's pressure for much of the game. The midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Torino's rhythm, and the back three held firm until the late equalizer. Despite conceding, Bologna showed resilience and nearly held on for all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Torino
Torino grew into the game after conceding early, controlling possession (60%) and dictating the tempo for long stretches. Their midfield, led by Daniel Bragança and Rolando Mandragora, orchestrated play and kept Bologna pinned back. Torino's persistence was eventually rewarded when Giovanni Simeone netted the equalizer in the 77th minute. Although they registered 14 shots and 3 on target, Torino lacked clinical edge in the final third and were frustrated by Bologna's compact defence. Three yellow cards reflected their urgency and occasional frustration, but their ability to rescue a point on the road showcased their resilience.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Bologna lined up in a 3-4-3, seeking to exploit width and transition quickly after regaining possession. Their wing-backs, Zortea and Miranda, were tasked with both defensive and attacking duties, but as Torino gained control, they were forced to sit deeper. The front three pressed early but gradually became isolated as the game wore on. Torino's 3-5-2 formation allowed them to dominate midfield, with Bragança and Mandragora dictating play and Fitz-Jim providing energy. The visitors used their wing-backs to stretch the pitch and created overloads, but struggled to break down Bologna's disciplined block until late on. Set pieces and wide play were key avenues for Torino, reflected in their 6 corners to Bologna's 1.
Turning Point
Giovanni Simeone's equalizer in the 77th minute shifted momentum and denied Bologna a home victory.
Man of the Match
Giovanni Simeone
His persistence and late goal rescued a point for Torino and capped an industrious display.
Bologna vs Torino: Match Preview
Bologna enter this fixture still searching for their first win of the campaign, having drawn once and lost twice in their opening three Serie A matches. Their attack has struggled to spark, with only two goals scored and three matches without a clean sheet. Torino arrive in slightly better shape, sitting three points above Bologna thanks to an away win at Fiorentina, but their own record is patchy, with two losses and a negative goal difference. Both sides are in the lower half of the table and in need of points to avoid early pressure.
The statistical matchup is defined by modest attacking output and defensive vulnerability on both sides. Bologna average just 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game in Serie A, while Torino's away record shows 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per match. Shot volumes are similar (around 10 per game), but neither side is especially clinical, with both averaging under 3 shots on target per match in the last five. Notably, Bologna have yet to score in the first half this season, and Torino's attack has also been second-half dependent. Corners and cards are around league average, suggesting no major set-piece or discipline edge.
Given these underlying rates and the head-to-head trend towards stalemates, the model expects a low-scoring, evenly balanced contest. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with under 2.5 goals the strongest statistical angle. Both teams' inability to consistently convert possession into goals, combined with their recent defensive records, points to a match where neither can fully take control.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bologna vs Torino Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bologna vs Torino that most previews miss.
- 1Bologna have failed to score in the first half in all three Serie A matches this season.
- 2Torino's last five away games average just 2.0 total goals, with three finishing under 2.5.
- 3Four of the last ten Bologna vs Torino matches have ended in draws, three of them 0-0 or 1-1.
Who do you think wins: Bologna vs Torino?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bologna vs Torino(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.47
The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw, above the 28.6% implied by the odds. Both sides average fewer than 1.5 goals scored per game and have a combined three draws in their last ten head-to-head meetings, with the 1-1 and 0-0 results recurring.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.8
Bologna's matches have averaged 2.0 goals this season (0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded), and Torino's away games 3.0, but both teams show low shot-on-target averages and a combined 66.7% under 2.5 rate in Serie A so far.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 1.92
The model gives 'no' a 56% chance, with Bologna failing to score in two of three Serie A games and Torino keeping one clean sheet in their last five. Both teams have a recent pattern of low-scoring, one-sided games.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Bologna vs Torino Prediction
Both Bologna and Torino have started the new Serie A campaign with modest attacking returns and defensive lapses, sitting 16th and 13th respectively after three rounds. Bologna remain winless, with just two goals scored, while Torino have shown a slightly sharper edge away from home but still average only 1.33 goals per match. The statistical profile points to a contest where neither side can fully impose themselves. Bologna's home attack has produced 2 goals in 2 matches but is undercut by a 0% clean sheet rate and a 1.5 goals conceded per home game average. Torino's away record is mixed: a win and a loss, both with three total goals, but their underlying shot and possession numbers (10.4 shots, 56.4% possession in the last five) suggest a side that can control phases but struggles for cutting edge. Both teams have been stronger after the break, with Bologna yet to score a first-half goal this season and Torino netting four of their last six after half-time. Set-piece threat is moderate on both sides, with corners averaging around 4 per game. The model projects a low-scoring, evenly matched affair, with the most likely outcome a 1-1 draw. Both teams' season-long scoring and concession rates, combined with the head-to-head history (four draws in the last ten, three of them 0-0 or 1-1), reinforce the expectation of a tight contest decided by fine margins. Under 2.5 goals and draw outcomes carry the clearest statistical value.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Four of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended in draws, with three finishing 1-1 or 0-0.
Defence
- →Bologna average just 0.67 goals scored per Serie A match this season, with a 0% clean sheet rate.
- →Torino's away games average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, but their shot conversion is modest (2.4 shots on target per game last five).
🚩 Bologna vs Torino Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.7 corners for Bologna and 4.8 for Torino, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How Bologna and Torino Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bologna vs Torino Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bolognalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Torinolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bologna are winless in their last five competitive matches, with a form string of DLLLL and just two goals scored in three Serie A games. Torino have shown slightly better momentum, winning their most recent league match away at Fiorentina, but had lost three straight prior to that. Both sides have negative goal differences and are yet to find consistent attacking fluency.
Bologna vs Torino — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Bologna vs Torino
In the last ten meetings between Bologna and Torino, Bologna hold a slight advantage with five wins to Torino's two, but draws are frequent—four in total, including two goalless encounters and a 1-1. The fixture has a recent history of low-scoring, tightly contested matches, especially in Bologna.
Bologna vs Torino Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Bologna wins
4
Draws
1
Torino wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bologna vs Torino
The clearest value lies on the draw, with the model's 34% probability well above the 28.6% implied by the 3.5 odds. Under 2.5 goals and 'BTTS: No' both show positive expected value, reflecting the low attacking output and recurring stalemate pattern in this matchup. The market appears to slightly overrate the chances of a decisive result.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bologna vs Torino
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams' current season attacking and defensive rates.
- ⚠️Recent results may be affected by early-season tactical adjustments not yet visible in the numbers.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but starting lineups are not yet confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bologna 1–1 TorinoThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both sides' low season-long scoring rates (Bologna 0.67, Torino 1.33 per game) and a recurring head-to-head pattern of stalemates. The likeliest way this call goes wrong is if either attack finds unexpected efficiency against suspect defences, but the weight of the data points to a cagey, low-scoring contest.
Bologna vs Torino: Common Questions
Who will win Bologna vs Torino?
The model gives Bologna a 39% chance, Torino 27%, and the draw 34%. Both teams have struggled for goals, and the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw.
Will Bologna vs Torino be under or over 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 62% probability. Both teams average fewer than 1.5 goals scored per game, and four of their last five combined Serie A matches have finished under 2.5.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Torino?
Both teams to score is rated at 44%, with 'no' more likely at 56%. Bologna have failed to score in two of three league matches, and Torino's away defence has been average.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bologna vs Torino: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.