Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
Bournemouth
Full Time
3 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Sturm Graz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Bournemouth Win
Match Result
7.8/10Bournemouth Dominate Sturm Graz in Convincing 3-0 Europa League Win
Bournemouth delivered a commanding performance at the Vitality Stadium, sweeping aside Sturm Graz 3-0 in their UEFA Europa League clash. The English side controlled proceedings from the outset, boasting 62% possession and peppering the Austrian visitors' goal with 23 shots, 7 of which were on target. Goals at crucial moments—just before halftime, midway through the second half, and in stoppage time—ensured the Cherries' dominance was reflected on the scoreboard. Sturm Graz, lining up in a defensive 5-3-2, struggled to gain a foothold, managing only 6 shots and a single effort on target. Bournemouth's midfield dictated the tempo, while the home defence comfortably dealt with Sturm Graz's rare forays forward. The result leaves Bournemouth well-placed in their group, while Sturm Graz will need to regroup after a chastening evening on the south coast.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
3 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
43' — Goal
Evanilson opens the scoring for Bournemouth, capitalizing on sustained pressure before halftime.
76' — Goal
Bournemouth double their lead, effectively sealing the result with a well-worked team move.
90' — Goal
A late third goal adds gloss to the scoreline and underlines Bournemouth's dominance.
various' — Yellow Cards
Both sides show physicality, with 3 yellow cards apiece reflecting a competitive edge.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth were in complete control throughout, dictating play with 62% possession and relentless attacking intent. Their 4-4-2 formation allowed for width and fluidity, with the midfield quartet orchestrating play and the front two posing constant threats. The Cherries were patient, eventually breaking the deadlock just before halftime and never looking back. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, limiting Sturm Graz to just one shot on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz set up defensively in a 5-3-2, but were unable to contain Bournemouth's sustained pressure. With just 38% possession and only 6 shots (1 on target), their attacking threat was minimal. The visitors' defensive line was under siege for much of the match, and although they held out until the 43rd minute, they ultimately conceded three times. Physicality was evident in their 18 fouls and 3 yellow cards, but this was not enough to disrupt Bournemouth's rhythm.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Bournemouth's 4-4-2 formation allowed them to stretch the play, with wingers and full-backs combining to overload Sturm Graz's flanks. The home side pressed high and recycled possession efficiently, pinning the Austrians deep in their own half. Sturm Graz's 5-3-2 was designed for containment, but they struggled to transition into attack, often resorting to long balls that were easily dealt with by Bournemouth's back line. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical landscape, as Bournemouth maintained their structure and intensity throughout. Set pieces were another area of Bournemouth's superiority, as they forced 7 corners to Sturm Graz's 3, keeping the pressure on and creating multiple chances from dead-ball situations.
Turning Point
Evanilson's goal in the 43rd minute broke Sturm Graz's resistance and shifted the momentum firmly in Bournemouth's favour.
Man of the Match
Evanilson
Led the line superbly, scored the crucial opener, and was a constant threat to the Sturm Graz defence.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: Match Preview
Bournemouth come into their first Europa League home fixture after a solid run of form, having taken points in four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their only defeat in that stretch was a narrow 0-1 loss to Liverpool, and they opened their group campaign with a 2-1 win away at Real Sociedad. Sturm Graz, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last three competitive fixtures (W2 D1), but their only Europa League outing was a goalless home draw with Rennes, leaving them mid-table in the group and still searching for attacking fluency on this stage.
The underlying rates show Bournemouth generating 18.6 shots and 5.6 on target per game over their last five, compared to Sturm Graz’s 7.8 and 2.6 respectively. Bournemouth’s attack is complemented by a 2.0 goals per game average, while Sturm Graz have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 1.8 goals per game in that window, with a notable drop-off in away attacking output. Bournemouth’s defensive record is not watertight (1.2 conceded per match, one clean sheet in five), but Sturm Graz’s own defensive numbers (1.2 conceded, only one clean sheet) suggest both sides are likely to allow chances. Set-piece threat is moderate from both, with Bournemouth averaging 4.2 corners and Sturm Graz 3.2.
Given these rates, the model expects Bournemouth’s attacking volume to eventually break down Sturm Graz’s defence, especially at home. The most likely scenario is a Bournemouth win with both teams getting on the scoresheet, as neither side boasts a high clean sheet rate and both have seen three BTTS results in their last five. The expected goal environment is moderate, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability for both teams to score.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz that most previews miss.
- 1Bournemouth’s Europa League matches have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate so far (1/1), while Sturm Graz have yet to see a goal in this competition (0-0 in their opener).
- 2Bournemouth average 18.6 shots per match in their last five, more than double Sturm Graz’s 7.8.
- 3Both teams have managed just one clean sheet in their last five matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
Who do you think wins: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bournemouth Win
Bournemouth average 2 goals scored per game over their last five and have a clear shot volume advantage (18.6 shots per match) over Sturm Graz, who have managed just 7.8 shots per game in the same span. The model gives Bournemouth a 51% chance to win, driven by their attacking output and home advantage.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen three BTTS results in their last five, and Bournemouth's Europa League matches have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate (albeit a tiny sample). The attacking rates suggest a 56% probability for over 2.5 goals.
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BTTS: Yes
Each side has only one clean sheet in their last five, and Bournemouth have failed to score just once in that span. The model estimates a 54% chance for both teams to score, reflecting both sides’ recent defensive vulnerabilities.
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More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Prediction
The statistical profile points to a moderately open contest, with Bournemouth’s superior attacking rates at home likely to tilt the balance. Sturm Graz have shown some resilience but lack the shot volume and away pedigree to be favoured.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Bournemouth’s last five matches: 2.0 goals scored per game, 18.6 shots per match.
- →Sturm Graz have managed just 2.6 shots on target per game in their last five.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side; both expected to field strong lineups.
🚩 Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Bournemouth and 5.8 for Sturm Graz, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Bournemouth and Sturm Graz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bournemouthlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Bournemouth have built momentum with a W2 D2 L1 record in their last five, highlighted by a 2-1 away win at Real Sociedad and a dominant 4-0 League Cup victory. Sturm Graz are unbeaten in three, but their only Europa League match ended 0-0 and their away form in Europe remains untested.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
There is no previous head-to-head data between Bournemouth and Sturm Graz, so no historical trends can be drawn for this matchup.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Bournemouth wins
0
Draws
0
Sturm Graz wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
With bookmaker odds unavailable, no explicit value edges can be calculated. However, the model’s probabilities suggest Bournemouth should be clear favourites, and the over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets both rate above 50%, which may offer value if market odds are set more conservatively.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available; unknown matchup dynamics.
- ⚠️Sturm Graz have not played an away match in this competition yet, increasing uncertainty on their road performance.
- ⚠️Europa League sample sizes are extremely limited for both teams.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bournemouth 2–1 Sturm GrazThe model predicts a 2-1 Bournemouth win, with the strongest data point being Bournemouth’s substantial shot volume and attacking output at home. The main risk is underestimating Sturm Graz’s defensive structure in Europe, especially given the lack of away data and the small sample size for both teams in this competition.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: Common Questions
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Bournemouth are favoured with a 51% probability to win, based on their superior attacking rates and home advantage. Sturm Graz are given a 20% chance, with a 29% probability for a draw.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
There’s a 54% chance both teams will score, as both sides have only one clean sheet in their last five and have seen three BTTS results each over that span.
How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
The model gives a 56% probability for over 2.5 goals, reflecting Bournemouth’s 2.0 goals per game average and Sturm Graz’s defensive record of 1.2 conceded per match in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.