Burnley vs Charlton Predictions
Championship · England
Burnley
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Charlton
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.5/10Late Leaburn Strike Earns Charlton Dramatic Draw at Turf Moor
Burnley and Charlton played out an entertaining 2-2 draw at Turf Moor, with the visitors snatching a point thanks to a stoppage-time equaliser. The hosts looked to have secured all three points after coming from behind, but Charlton's resilience was rewarded in the dying moments. Both sides showed attacking intent, with Burnley registering 18 shots to Charlton's 9, but it was the visitors who edged possession with 54% and produced a late twist. Burnley opened the scoring in the 36th minute, but Charlton responded early in the second half. After Burnley regained the lead in the 57th minute, Charlton pressed forward and finally broke through with a dramatic goal in the 90th minute. The match was a tale of momentum swings and tactical adjustments, with both teams creating chances and neither able to fully assert their dominance.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
36' — Goal
Burnley open the scoring, capitalizing on their early attacking momentum.
50' — Goal
Charlton equalise shortly after the break, shifting the match's momentum.
57' — Goal
Burnley retake the lead, responding quickly to Charlton's leveller.
90' — Goal
M. Leaburn scores a dramatic equaliser for Charlton in stoppage time.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Burnley pick up two yellows, Charlton one, in a competitive but largely fair contest.
Burnley
Burnley delivered a spirited attacking display, carving out 18 shots and forcing 4 on target, but were ultimately left frustrated by Charlton's late equaliser. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid transitions and width, and they were particularly dangerous in the first half, taking the lead in the 36th minute. Despite conceding possession, they remained a threat on the break and regained their advantage just before the hour mark. Defensively, Burnley were generally solid but struggled to contain Charlton's late pressure. Their discipline was evident with only 4 fouls committed, though two players picked up yellow cards. Ultimately, their inability to close out the match proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Charlton
Charlton showed impressive resilience, twice coming from behind to earn a valuable away point. They controlled possession (54%) and matched Burnley in corners (7 each), while also registering more shots on target (5). Their patience in the build-up paid off, with goals in the 50th and 90th minutes demonstrating their ability to respond under pressure. Defensively, Charlton were stretched at times but managed to limit Burnley to just 4 shots on target from 18 attempts. Their physical approach resulted in 12 fouls and a yellow card, but they maintained composure to secure a dramatic late equaliser.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, leading to a tactical battle in midfield and wide areas. Burnley looked to exploit the flanks and break quickly, while Charlton focused on controlling possession and patiently building attacks. The hosts' disciplined defensive shape limited Charlton's clear chances for much of the match, but the visitors' persistence paid off late on. Substitutions and tactical tweaks in the second half saw Charlton push more bodies forward after falling behind, which ultimately led to their late equaliser. Both sides utilised their full-backs for width, and set pieces were evenly matched, with each team earning 7 corners. Burnley's inability to convert more of their chances, coupled with Charlton's late attacking surge, defined the tactical narrative.
Turning Point
M. Leaburn's 90th-minute equaliser, which salvaged a point for Charlton and denied Burnley a home victory.
Man of the Match
M. Leaburn
Scored the crucial stoppage-time equaliser and led Charlton's line with determination throughout.
Burnley vs Charlton: Match Preview
Burnley come into this fixture bottom of the Championship, still searching for their first win after eight rounds. Their last five matches have yielded four draws and one defeat, with a consistent inability to turn possession into victories. Charlton, sitting 9th, have cooled off after a strong start, failing to win any of their last five and scoring just twice in that span. Both sides are under pressure to reverse recent trends, but neither carries much momentum.
Statistically, this is a clash between two of the league's least potent attacks. Burnley average 1.13 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game this season, with a home record of five scored and six conceded in four outings. Charlton's away defence is leaky (nine conceded in four), but their attack is even less threatening on the road, averaging just one goal per away match. Recent matches reinforce the low attacking output, with Charlton failing to score in three of their last five and Burnley netting exactly once in each of their last five.
The model expects a low-scoring draw as the most probable outcome, with both teams' attacking limitations and defensive vulnerabilities cancelling each other out. The most likely scenarios are 1-1 or a narrow win either way, but the underlying rates point to a cautious, low-quality affair where neither side is likely to dominate for long stretches.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burnley vs Charlton Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Burnley vs Charlton that most previews miss.
- 1Burnley have seen both teams score in all of their last five league matches.
- 2Charlton have failed to score in three of their last five, but kept two clean sheets in that span.
- 3Burnley have yet to win at home this season, drawing three of four at Turf Moor.
Who do you think wins: Burnley vs Charlton?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Burnley vs Charlton(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average just over a goal per game (Burnley 1.13, Charlton 0.88), and each side's defensive frailties are offset by the other's attacking bluntness, making 1-1 the single likeliest outcome by the model at 22%.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Charlton's away matches average 3.25 goals but their last 5 overall have seen just 0.4 scored per game and 1.6 conceded, while Burnley have failed to score more than once in any of their last 5; the model rates under 2.5 at 52%.
Read more ↓
More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Burnley vs Charlton Prediction
Burnley, still searching for their first win of the season, host a Charlton side that has struggled to score on the road but sits comfortably mid-table. Both teams have posted poor attacking numbers recently, with Burnley averaging 1.0 goal per game in their last five and Charlton just 0.4. The data points to a low-scoring, attritional contest where neither side has the firepower or momentum to seize control.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Charlton have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
Defence
- →Burnley have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 8 league matches.
Match Context
- →Burnley are winless at home (0W, 3D, 1L), Charlton have just 1 away win (1W, 1D, 2L).
🚩 Burnley vs Charlton Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Burnley and 3.7 for Charlton, for an expected total of 8.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 48% · Over 10.5: 24%.
How Burnley and Charlton Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burnley vs Charlton Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burnleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Charltonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Burnley are winless in eight, drawing four of their last five and scoring exactly once in each. Charlton have also failed to win in their last five, but their main issue has been scoring, with three blanks in that stretch. Both sides are trending downward, with neither attack showing signs of breaking out.
Burnley vs Charlton — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
What History Says: Burnley vs Charlton
Burnley have historically dominated Charlton, winning five of the last six meetings, including several by three-goal margins. However, all previous encounters are at least a decade old, so the current squads and context differ significantly from those results.
Burnley vs Charlton Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
5
Burnley wins
0
Draws
1
Charlton wins
Things to Watch: Burnley vs Charlton
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️Historical H2H data is outdated (last meeting 2016), so recent matchup trends are not reliable.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is poor, increasing variance and reducing model confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Burnley 1–1 CharltonThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the likeliest outcome, driven by both teams' inability to convert chances (Burnley 1.13 goals/game, Charlton 0.88) and a lack of clean sheets on either side. The main risk to this forecast is that Charlton's away defensive record (2.25 conceded per away game) could allow Burnley to finally break through for a first win, but their finishing has not justified that leap.
Burnley vs Charlton: Common Questions
Who will win Burnley vs Charlton?
The model gives Burnley a 36% chance of victory, Charlton a 27% chance, and the draw is marginally favoured at 37%. Both sides are struggling for form, so a stalemate is the most probable result.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Charlton?
There is a 54% probability that both teams will score, as Burnley have seen BTTS in all of their last five, while Charlton's attack has been inconsistent but Burnley's defence has not kept a clean sheet all season.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Burnley vs Charlton?
The model rates under 2.5 goals at 52%, slightly more likely than over, reflecting both teams' low scoring rates (Burnley 1.13, Charlton 0.88 per game) and recent attacking struggles.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burnley vs Charlton: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 6 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.