Bury vs Workington Predictions
FA Cup · England
Bury
Full Time
5 - 1
AI predicted 3 - 2
Workington
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.5/10Bury Crush Workington 5-1 in FA Cup Rout
Bury delivered a commanding performance to sweep aside Workington 5-1 in a one-sided FA Cup encounter. The home side were in ruthless form, putting five goals past their visitors and barely giving Workington a chance to settle. Despite the lack of detailed statistics, the scoreline alone tells the story of Bury's dominance and attacking intent throughout the match. Workington managed to find the net once, but their solitary goal was scant consolation in a game where they were outclassed from start to finish. With no cards shown and no apparent disciplinary issues, Bury simply outplayed their opposition in every department, booking their place in the next round in emphatic style.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
3 - 2
Actual
5 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
N/A' — Bury Goal
Bury open the scoring to set the tone for a dominant display.
N/A' — Bury Goal
The home side double their lead, putting Workington under pressure.
N/A' — Bury Goal
Bury continue their onslaught with a third goal.
N/A' — Workington Goal
Workington pull one back, but it proves only a consolation.
N/A' — Bury Goal
Bury restore their three-goal cushion.
N/A' — Bury Goal
The home side cap off the rout with a fifth goal.
Bury
Bury were relentless from the first whistle, overwhelming Workington with wave after wave of attack. Scoring five goals in a cup tie is a testament to their offensive prowess and clinical finishing. The home side maintained focus throughout, never allowing Workington a way back into the contest. Their defensive discipline was also notable, conceding just once and avoiding any bookings. It was a complete team performance that showcased Bury's quality and ambition in the competition.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Workington
Workington struggled to cope with Bury's intensity and attacking movement. Despite managing to score a goal, they were outmatched in every department and failed to mount a sustained challenge. The heavy defeat will be a tough pill to swallow, exposing defensive frailties and a lack of attacking threat. With no bookings or cards, discipline was not at fault; rather, it was a gulf in quality and execution that proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
While detailed lineups and formations are unavailable, Bury's attacking output suggests a forward-thinking setup, likely with multiple players pushing high up the pitch and pressing Workington into mistakes. Their ability to score five goals points to effective use of width and incisive passing in the final third. Workington, meanwhile, appeared unable to adapt defensively, perhaps sticking with a conservative shape that was nonetheless breached repeatedly. Bury's defensive organization was also evident, conceding just once and maintaining discipline throughout.
Turning Point
Bury's second goal, which doubled their lead and effectively killed Workington's hopes of a comeback.
Man of the Match
Bury Attackers
Combined for five goals and led the team to a comprehensive victory.
Bury vs Workington: Match Preview
Bury come into this FA Cup tie with a formline that reads like a rollercoaster—alternating emphatic wins with narrow defeats, including an 8-0 rout of Wythenshawe Amateurs and a 7-0 crushing of Ilkeston Town, but also slipping up at home to Lancaster City. Their streaky WLWLW run hints at a side capable of brilliance but prone to lapses, making them unpredictable despite their attacking fireworks. Workington, meanwhile, are the form team in the tie, having strung together five straight wins and showing a knack for late goals and comeback resilience, particularly away from home where they overturned Lancaster City 3-0 and edged United of Manchester 2-1 with two strikes in the final ten minutes.
The tactical battle is likely to revolve around whether Bury’s explosive attack (3.4 goals per game in the last five) can break down a Workington side that has kept two clean sheets in five but also conceded twice on three occasions. Workington’s own attack is no less potent, averaging 2.8 goals per game and scoring in every match of their current streak. Both sides have a tendency to start slower—just seven first-half goals combined in their last five each—before accelerating after the break, suggesting a contest that could open up dramatically in the second half. Set-piece and discipline data is lacking, but neither side has shown a particular weakness in terms of cards or fouls in recent outings.
Given these dynamics, the model expects a high-scoring, see-saw affair where momentum and confidence play a decisive role. With both teams in prolific form and neither defence watertight, the most likely scenario is a match that ebbs and flows, with the draw a real possibility if Workington’s away resilience holds up against Bury’s home firepower. Expect goals at both ends and a contest that remains in the balance deep into the second half.
How Bury and Workington Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bury vs Workington Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Burylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Workingtonlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Workington are the form side, riding a five-match winning streak and averaging 2.8 goals per game, with late goals a recurring theme. Bury’s trajectory is more erratic, alternating between dominant wins and narrow losses, but their home scoring record is formidable, netting 16 in their last three at home. Both sides arrive in confident mood, but Workington’s consistency contrasts with Bury’s volatility.
Bury vs Workington — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 5.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Bury vs Workington Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bury vs Workington that most previews miss.
- 1Workington have scored nine of their last fourteen goals in the second half, highlighting their late-game threat.
- 2Bury’s last three home matches have produced a staggering 16 goals for and just one against.
- 3Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their last five matches, with BTTS landing in 60% of those games.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.00
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
69%
BTTS: Yes
68%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Bury vs Workington?
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The Case For This Bury vs Workington Prediction
Momentum is the defining feature of this tie, with Workington riding a five-match winning streak and Bury oscillating between high-scoring wins and narrow defeats. Both sides have demonstrated a clinical edge in attack—Bury netting 8 and 7 in two of their last three home games, Workington putting up three goals in three of their last five. The question is whether Bury’s volatility or Workington’s consistency will dictate the rhythm of this FA Cup clash.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Workington have won five consecutive matches, scoring 14 goals in that span.
Defence
- →Both teams average more than 2.5 goals scored per game over their last five, with defensive lapses evident on both sides.
Match Context
- →Bury have scored 16 goals in their last three home matches but have also suffered two defeats in their last five overall.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bury vs Workington(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Bury and Workington have hit over 2.5 goals in all of their last five matches, with Bury averaging 3.4 goals scored and Workington 2.8, while neither side has conceded fewer than one per game on average in that span.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Workington have scored in every one of their last five matches, while Bury have only failed to score once in that span; both have shown defensive vulnerability, with only three clean sheets between them in their last ten combined.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw
Workington arrive on a five-match winning streak and have shown resilience away from home, while Bury's form is more volatile (WLWLW), suggesting a closely-fought contest where momentum could cancel out home advantage.
Read more ↓
More FA Cup Predictions
What History Says: Bury vs Workington
There is no head-to-head data available for this fixture, so no historical trends or dominant patterns can be referenced. This increases the unpredictability of the matchup, with both sides coming in fresh and unburdened by past meetings.
Bury vs Workington Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Bury wins
0
Draws
0
Workington wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bury vs Workington
With no bookmaker odds available, it is not possible to precisely identify value edges. However, the model’s strong lean towards goals—72% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score—suggests these markets would be attractive if odds implied probabilities below these thresholds. The draw is also rated higher than typical, reflecting the close form lines.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bury vs Workington
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data is available, increasing uncertainty around relative strength.
- ⚠️Absence of bookmaker odds means value cannot be precisely calculated.
- ⚠️No recent lineup or injury disruptions are reported, but lack of deeper squad data limits confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bury 3–2 WorkingtonThe model calls this as a 3-2 win for Bury, but the single strongest data point is Workington’s five-match winning streak and their ability to score late, which could easily turn the tide. The most plausible way this prediction goes wrong is if Bury’s defensive volatility resurfaces or Workington’s momentum proves too much for the home side to contain, swinging the result towards a draw or even an away win.
Bury vs Workington: Common Questions
Who will win Bury vs Workington?
The model gives Bury a slight edge with a 43% probability of victory, but Workington’s momentum and a 34% chance of a draw make this a very close contest. Workington’s five-match winning streak and Bury’s inconsistent form suggest a high-scoring, unpredictable tie.
Will both teams score in Bury vs Workington?
Yes is favoured at 67%, as both sides have averaged over 2.5 goals scored per game in their last five and have shown defensive frailties, with only three clean sheets between them in the last ten combined matches.
Can Workington’s winning streak continue against Bury?
Workington have won five straight, scoring 14 times and showing strong away form, but Bury’s explosive home attack means their run will be severely tested. The model gives Workington a 23% chance to win outright, with a draw (34%) also highly plausible.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bury vs Workington: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.