Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County Predictions

Cray Wanderers come into this FA Cup tie unbeaten in their last seven, with a form string of WWDLW and a 57% clean sheet rate this season. However, all of their results have come against non-league or lower-tier opposition, and their last five have included just one match against a side outside their division. Stockport County, by contrast, arrive from League One with a recent run of WLDWW, conceding only three goals across their last five and dominating possession and shot metrics.

Statistically, Stockport's attack is operating at a much higher level: they have averaged 17.8 shots and 4.4 shots on target per game in their last five, with an average possession of nearly 70%. Cray's defensive record (0.8 goals conceded per game in the last five) looks impressive on paper, but the step up in opposition quality is stark. Cray average just 3.6 shots and 1.6 shots on target per game, suggesting their attack may struggle to threaten a disciplined Stockport defence. The goal environment is likely to be moderate, with the model rating under 2.5 goals as a 54% proposition and both teams not to score at 72%.

The model expects Stockport's class and control to tell over the 90 minutes, likely resulting in a professional, low-scoring away win. Cray's best hope lies in a first-half stalemate, but Stockport's ability to sustain pressure and limit chances against stronger sides makes an upset improbable. The likeliest pattern is Stockport gradually asserting themselves, with Cray's attack finding few clear openings.