Cagliari vs Bologna Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Cagliari
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Bologna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 1.67(+19% edge)
Recommended Bets: Cagliari vs Bologna
Cagliari vs Bologna: Match Preview
Cagliari enter this fixture in fifth place, buoyed by a strong start that includes four wins from six, yet their home form is less convincing with only two goals scored in three league matches at the Unipol Domus. Bologna, sitting 14th, have struggled for consistency, picking up just one win in six but showing signs of improvement with a recent away victory at Lecce. Both sides are separated by eight points in the standings, but the underlying numbers suggest a much tighter contest than the table implies.
Statistically, this match projects as a low-event affair. Cagliari's defensive record is among the best in Serie A (0.5 goals conceded per game, 50% clean sheet rate), but their attack is blunt at home, averaging 0.67 goals per match. Bologna, meanwhile, have yet to keep a clean sheet but rarely concede more than once, and their attack is similarly muted away (0.67 goals per game). Over their last five, both teams average just over one goal scored per match, and both have seen three of their last five go under 2.5 goals. Set-piece threat is limited: Cagliari average 3.4 corners, Bologna 3.2, both below league average, and neither side racks up cards at a high rate.
The model expects a cautious, attritional contest, with neither side likely to take early risks. The most probable outcome is a low-scoring draw, with the 1-1 scoreline narrowly favoured. The defensive rates and lack of attacking punch, especially from Cagliari at home, drive a strong lean to under 2.5 goals and a high probability of a stalemate.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
BTTS: Yes
35%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cagliari vs Bologna that most previews miss.
- 1Cagliari's home matches this season have averaged just 1.33 total goals (2 scored, 2 conceded in 3 games).
- 2Bologna have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 Serie A away matches.
- 3Across the last 10 H2H meetings, only one fixture has finished goalless, but 7 of 10 produced two goals or fewer.
Who do you think wins: Cagliari vs Bologna?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cagliari vs Bologna(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.67
Both teams combine for just 1.83 goals per game this season (Cagliari 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded; Bologna 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded), with Cagliari matches going under 2.5 goals in 83% of cases and Bologna in 67%.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.04
The model sees a 36% probability for the draw (implied odds 2.78) versus the market's 32% (3.10), with both sides drawing 3 of their last 10 combined league matches and neither attack showing enough to separate them.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction
A low-scoring tactical contest is likely at the Unipol Domus, with both Cagliari and Bologna trending towards defensive solidity and limited attacking output. The numbers point to a narrow, risk-averse battle.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Cagliari's matches average just 1.5 total goals per game this Serie A season.
Defence
- →Bologna have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their six league matches, but have only conceded more than one goal once.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head: 4 of the last 5 meetings produced under 2.5 goals.
🚩 Cagliari vs Bologna Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Cagliari and 3.3 for Bologna, for an expected total of 8.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 43% · Over 10.5: 20%.
How Cagliari and Bologna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Injuries & Suspensions
Cagliari
Cagliari vs Bologna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cagliarilast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Bolognalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cagliari are unbeaten in their last four league matches (three wins, one draw), conceding just two goals in that span and showing defensive discipline. Bologna, by contrast, have only one win in their last five, but did secure an away victory at Lecce last time out, breaking a run of four without a win. Momentum is with Cagliari, but their home attack remains underwhelming.
Cagliari vs Bologna — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Cagliari vs Bologna
Bologna have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning four of the last five meetings, including two consecutive victories in Cagliari. However, the last two encounters have been tight, with a 0-0 and a 0-2, and four of the last five have failed to reach three goals.
Cagliari vs Bologna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Cagliari wins
1
Draws
6
Bologna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cagliari vs Bologna
The model finds value on under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67 (model probability 71%, edge +19%), reflecting the strong defensive rates and lack of attacking output. The draw at 3.10 also offers a 12% edge, with the model's 36% probability higher than the market's implied 32%. These markets align with the statistical profile of a low-scoring, closely contested match.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cagliari vs Bologna
- ⚠️Small sample size early in the season can exaggerate defensive or attacking trends.
- ⚠️Cagliari's home attack has managed just 2 goals in 3 league games.
- ⚠️Bologna's away form is inconsistent, with only 2 goals scored in 3 away matches.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cagliari 1–1 BolognaThe model calls this a 1-1 draw, with under 2.5 goals the strongest statistical angle—Cagliari's matches average just 1.5 goals and Bologna's away attack is similarly muted. The main risk is a defensive lapse from either side, but the rates suggest a cagey, low-scoring affair is most likely.
Cagliari vs Bologna: Common Questions
Who will win Cagliari vs Bologna?
The model estimates a 34% chance of a Cagliari win, 36% for a draw, and 30% for a Bologna win. Both teams' low scoring rates and solid defences point to a stalemate as the likeliest outcome.
Will Cagliari vs Bologna be under or over 2.5 goals?
There's a 71% probability for under 2.5 goals, with both sides combining for just 1.83 goals per game this season and 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings finishing under 2.5.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Both teams to score is rated at 46%, with Cagliari keeping three clean sheets in their last six and Bologna failing to score in two of their last five. The numbers slightly favour at least one side keeping a clean sheet.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cagliari vs Bologna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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