AS Roma vs Cagliari Predictions
Serie A · Italy
AS Roma
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Cagliari
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.75(+26% edge)
Recommended Bets: AS Roma vs Cagliari
AS Roma vs Cagliari: Match Preview
Roma come into this fixture unbeaten in Serie A, sitting third with 17 points and a formidable +13 goal difference. Their last five league matches have yielded three clean sheets and just three goals conceded, while Cagliari, despite sitting seventh and winning three of four away games, arrive on the back of a heavy 4-0 defeat at Monza. The table positions reflect Roma’s consistency and defensive strength, while Cagliari’s points total is flattered by a soft early away schedule.
Statistically, the matchup leans heavily in Roma’s favour. The hosts average 2.29 goals scored and just 0.43 conceded per game, with a 71% clean sheet rate and only one failed-to-score in their last five. Cagliari, by contrast, have managed just six goals in seven matches (0.86 per game) and their away defence has shipped five in four outings. H2H history also tilts the scales: Roma have won seven of the last ten meetings, including four home clean sheets in that span. Set-piece and discipline numbers are unremarkable, but Roma’s ability to control possession (50% average) and limit shots against (1.2 goals conceded per last five) stands out.
The model expects Roma to assert control early, likely taking a first-half lead and suffocating Cagliari’s attack. While Roma’s short price on the 1x2 market is justified by the data, the real value appears in the BTTS 'No' market, with a 72% model probability against the 57% implied by the odds. Unless Cagliari find an attacking gear they have rarely shown this season, Roma’s defensive solidity should dictate the rhythm and outcome.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AS Roma vs Cagliari
The model finds little value in the outright markets, with Roma’s win odds too short relative to their actual probability. The standout edge is in the BTTS 'No' market, where the model’s 72% probability is well above the 57% implied by 1.75 odds. Under 2.5 goals and the draw are priced fairly, but the clean sheet trend makes BTTS 'No' the most attractive angle.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: AS Roma vs Cagliari(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.74
Roma have conceded just three goals in seven league matches (0.43 per game) and kept three clean sheets in their last five, while Cagliari average only 0.86 goals scored per game this season and have failed to score in three of their last six away H2H visits. The model gives a 72% chance of BTTS 'No', well above the 57% implied by the odds.
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AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AS Roma vs Cagliari that most previews miss.
- 1BTTS 'No' has landed in four of the last five Roma home games against Cagliari.
- 2Cagliari’s away matches average just 2.25 total goals this season, with only one going over 2.5.
- 3Roma have scored first in six of their seven league matches, conceding first only in the Champions League.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.10
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 3-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction
Bookmakers have made Roma short-priced favourites at the Olimpico, but the model finds the value lies in the goal markets rather than the outright result. Roma's defensive numbers are elite, especially at home, while Cagliari's attacking output on the road remains modest. The most pronounced edge is in the BTTS market, with Roma's clean sheet rate and Cagliari's low scoring combining for a strong probability of at least one side blanking.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Cagliari average just 1 goal per game in their last five and 0.86 per game for the season.
Defence
- →Roma's home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 10 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- →Roma have a 71% clean sheet rate this season; Cagliari have failed to score in three of their last six away H2H visits.
🚩 AS Roma vs Cagliari Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for AS Roma and 4.2 for Cagliari, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How AS Roma and Cagliari Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Injuries & Suspensions
AS Roma
Cagliari
AS Roma vs Cagliari Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AS Romalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cagliarilast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Roma are unbeaten in Serie A with a form line of WDDWW, conceding just three goals in seven matches and keeping three clean sheets in their last five. Cagliari’s recent run (LDWWW) was dented by a heavy 4-0 defeat at Monza, and their attack has struggled for consistency, averaging just one goal per game over their last five.
AS Roma vs Cagliari — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +71.43% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: AS Roma vs Cagliari
Roma have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning seven of the last ten meetings and keeping four clean sheets at home in that span. Cagliari have failed to score in three of their last six away games at the Olimpico, with the most recent encounter ending 2-0 to Roma.
AS Roma vs Cagliari Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
AS Roma wins
1
Draws
2
Cagliari wins
Things to Watch: AS Roma vs Cagliari
- ⚠️Cagliari have won three of four away matches this season, but two were against bottom-half sides.
- ⚠️Roma's only recent defensive lapse came in a 4-3 loss to Real Madrid, not in domestic competition.
- ⚠️Both teams have minor injury absences but no first-choice starters missing.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AS Roma 2–0 CagliariRoma’s defensive record—three goals conceded in seven league matches and a 71% clean sheet rate—anchors the prediction of a 2-0 home win. The single strongest data point is Cagliari’s anaemic 0.86 goals per game, especially away from home and against top-six opposition. The main risk lies in Cagliari’s improved away form this season (three wins from four), but their underlying attacking numbers and H2H record suggest they are unlikely to break through in Rome.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: Common Questions
Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Roma are strong favourites with a 69% model probability to win, compared to just 10% for Cagliari and 21% for the draw. Roma’s home record and defensive numbers justify their status, but the 1.36 odds slightly overstate their chances.
Will both teams score in Roma vs Cagliari?
The model gives a 72% chance that both teams will NOT score, with Roma’s clean sheet rate at 71% and Cagliari averaging just 0.86 goals per game. The odds for BTTS 'No' (1.75) offer notable value versus the model probability.
Is there value in backing Roma at current odds?
At 1.36, the implied probability for a Roma win is 74%, but the model only rates their chances at 69%. This means the price is too short to represent value, with the edge instead found in the BTTS 'No' market.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AS Roma vs Cagliari: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 20 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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